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Summary
The People's Republic of China's (PRC) assertiveness with regard to territorial claims and the rapid modernization of the country's armed forces in recent years are major factors that are expected to drive Taiwan's military expenditure. The country is expected to remain committed to making steady increases to its national defense budget in tandem with its economic growth. The country's allocation towards procurement of weapons is expected to increase considerably over the period 2016-2020 which can be attributed to its decision to modernize armed forces. The nation's domestic defense capabilities are largely underdeveloped, as a result of which a large number of foreign suppliers have entered the market by directly selling arms.

Key Findings
- Over the historic period, defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 1.58%, increasing from US$9.6 billion in 2011 to US$10.3 billion in 2015

- Military expenditure, valued at US$10.3 billion in 2015, is expected to increase to US$11.1 billion by 2020, registering a CAGR of 1.88% over the period 2016-2020

- Military expenditure will be driven by PRC's assertiveness with regards to territorial claims and the need to modernize Taiwan's armed forces, to deter PRC from invading the country

- The Defense Ministry is expected to procure corvettes, submarines, air-to-surface missiles, and upgrades for multi-role aircraft

Synopsis
Strategic Defense Intelligence's - Future of Taiwanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 offers detailed analysis of industry with market size forecasts for the period 2016-2020 is done. Also, analysis of factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants is covered.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porter's Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2015 to 2025

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

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Table Of Contents

Future of Taiwanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Defense expenditure estimated to grow at a CAGR of 1.88% during the forecast period
3.1.2. Issue of One China and military modernization to drive military expenditure
3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget expected to increase
3.2.2. Taiwan's capital expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.96% during the forecast period
3.2.3. Revenue expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.90% during the forecast period
3.3.2. Human trafficking and illicit drugs trade to drive homeland security expenditure
3.3.3. Taiwan faces minimal threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Taiwanese defense expenditure expected to remain low compared to leading spenders
3.4.2. Taiwan will continue to be a small contributor in the global arms market
3.4.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to remain low on a global scale
3.4.4. Taiwan faces negligible threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Corvettes
3.5.2. Submarines
3.5.3. Upgrade of Multi-role Aircraft
3.5.4. Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limited domestic defense capabilities drives the country's defense imports
4.1.2. Defense imports increased steadily over the period 2010-2014
4.1.3. The US and Germany are Taiwan's main defense trade partners
4.1.4. Aircraft and missiles accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2010-2014
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Taiwan has been unable to access the global defense market
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: medium
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Government encourages offsets to develop the domestic defense industrial base
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Foreign equipment manufacturers enter the market through direct commercial sales
6.2.2. Foreign OEMs enter the market by partnering with a domestic defense firm
6.2.3. Biennial defense exhibition provides an attractive entry route
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Defense budget cuts lead to cancellation and project delays
6.3.2. Lack of sales agents and stringent regulations restrict domestic defense industry growth
6.3.3. Corruption and lack of transparency impedes the growth of Taiwan's defense industry
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC): overview
7.2.2. Aerospace Investment Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC): products
7.2.3. Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC): recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC): alliances
7.2.5. Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC): recent contract awards
7.2.6. Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST): overview
7.2.7. Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST): products
7.2.8. Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST): recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.9. Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST): alliances
7.2.10. China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSBC), Taiwan: overview
7.2.11. China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSBC), Taiwan: products
7.2.12. China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSBC), Taiwan: alliances
7.2.13. The Combined Service Forces (CSF): overview
7.2.14. The Combined Service Forces (CSF): products
7.2.15. The Combined Service Forces (CSF): alliances
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Economic Performance
8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.1.5. Manufacturing Output
8.1.6. Consumer Price Index
8.1.7. Wholesale Price Index
8.1.8. Local Currency Unit per US$
8.1.9. Local Currency Unit per EUR
8.1.10. Lending Rate (%)
8.1.1. Deposit Rate (%)
8.1.2. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
8.1.3. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a % of GDP
8.1.4. Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Billion)
8.1.5. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
8.1.6. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.1.7. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.1.8. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP
8.1.9. Services Imports as a % of GDP
8.1.10. Services Exports as a % of GDP
8.1.11. Services trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP
8.1.12. Net Foreign Direct Investment
8.1.13. Net FDI as a percentage of GDP
8.1.14. International reserves, including Gold
8.2. Energy and Utilities
8.2.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.2.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.2.3. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.2.4. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.2.5. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
8.2.6. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.2.7. Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Million Barrels)
8.2.8. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts)
8.3. Minerals
8.3.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.4. Technology
8.4.1. Patents Granted
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Taiwanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 2: Taiwanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 3: Taiwanese Defense Expenditure (TWD Billion), 2011-2015
Table 4: Taiwanese Defense Expenditure (TWD Billion), 2016-2020
Table 5: Taiwanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Table 6: Taiwanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Table 7: Taiwanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Table 8: Taiwanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Table 9: Taiwanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Table 10: Taiwanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Table 11: Taiwanese Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 12: Taiwanese Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 13: Taiwanese Capital Budget Allocation (TWD billion), 2011-2015
Table 14: Taiwanese Capital Budget Allocation (TWD billion), 2016-2020
Table 15: Taiwanese Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 16: Taiwanese Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 17: Taiwanese Revenue Budget Allocation (TWD billion), 2011-2015
Table 18: Taiwanese Revenue Budget Allocation (TWD billion), 2016-2020
Table 19: Taiwanese per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Table 20: Taiwanese per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Table 21: Taiwanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 22: Taiwanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 23: Taiwanese Homeland Security Budget (TWD billion), 2011-2015
Table 24: Taiwanese Homeland Security Budget (TWD billion), 2016-2020
Table 25: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Table 26: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Table 27: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 28: Defense Offset Regulations in Taiwan
Table 29: Taiwan Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC)-Product Focus
Table 30: Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) - Alliances
Table 31: Taiwan Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) - Recent Contract Wins
Table 32: Taiwan Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST)-Product Focus
Table 33: Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST) - Alliances
Table 34: Taiwan Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST)-Product Focus
Table 35: China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSBC), Taiwan - Alliances
Table 36: Taiwan Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST)-Product Focus
Table 37: The Combined Service Forces (CSF) - Alliances

List of Figures
Figure 1: Taiwanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 2: Taiwanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 3: Taiwanese Defense Expenditure (TWD Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 4: Taiwanese Defense Expenditure (TWD Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 5: Taiwanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Figure 6: Taiwanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Figure 7: Taiwanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Figure 8: Taiwanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Figure 9: Taiwanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Figure 10: Taiwanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure(%), 2016-2020
Figure 11: Taiwanese Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Figure 12: Taiwanese Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 13: Taiwanese Capital Budget Allocation (TWD billion), 2011-2015
Figure 14: Taiwanese Capital Budget Allocation (TWD billion), 2016-2020
Figure 15: Taiwanese Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Figure 16: Taiwanese Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 17: Taiwanese Revenue Budget Allocation (TWD billion), 2011-2015
Figure 18: Taiwanese Revenue Budget Allocation (TWD billion), 2016-2020
Figure 19: Taiwanese per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Figure 20: Taiwanese per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Figure 21: Taiwanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Figure 22: Taiwanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 23: Taiwanese Homeland Security Budget (TWD billion), 2011-2015
Figure 24: Taiwanese Homeland Security Budget (TWD billion), 2016-2020
Figure 25: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
Figure 26: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Figure 27: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
Figure 28: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
Figure 29: Corvettes Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 30: Submarines Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 31: Upgrade of Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 32: Air-to-Surface Missiles Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 33: Taiwanese Defense Import Trend, 2010-2014 (TIV values)
Figure 34: Taiwanese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010-2014
Figure 35: Taiwanese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2014
Figure 36: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 37: Taiwan's GDP per capita, 2008-2017
Figure 38: Taiwan's Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2010-2019
Figure 39: Taiwan's Exports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2004-2013
Figure 40: Taiwan's Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2004-2013
Figure 41: Taiwan's Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 42: Taiwan's Consumer Price Index, 2009-2018
Figure 43: Taiwan's Wholesale Price Index, 2003-2012
Figure 44: Taiwan's LCU per US$, 2005-2014
Figure 45: Taiwan's LCU per EUR, 2005-2014
Figure 46: Taiwan's Lending Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 47: Taiwan's Deposit Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 48: Taiwan's Market Capitalization of listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 49: Taiwan's Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 50: Taiwan's Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 51: Taiwan's Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002-2011
Figure 52: Taiwan's Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 53: Taiwan's Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 54: Taiwan's Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 55: Taiwan's Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 56: Taiwan's Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 57: Taiwan's Services trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 58: Taiwan's Net Foreign Direct Investment (current US$ BN), 2003-2012
Figure 59: Taiwan's Net FDI as a percentage of GDP, 2004-2012
Figure 60: Taiwan's International reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 61: Taiwan's Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2003-2011
Figure 62: Taiwan's Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2001-2010
Figure 63: Taiwan's Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2003-2012
Figure 64: Taiwan's Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million
Figure 65: Taiwan's Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004-2013
Figure 66: Taiwan's Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 67: Taiwan's Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Million Barrels), 2004-2013
Figure 68: Taiwan's Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts),
Figure 69: Taiwan's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output(US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 70: Taiwan's Patents Granted, 2003-2012

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