United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 135 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We continue to favour the grain and livestock industries in the UK because of good export opportunities and a strong domestic market. The country became a net importer of wheat in 2012/13 and 2013/14, but we do not expect this to be the case again in 2014/15. Indeed, we believe the wheat deficit will be temporary and we continue to expect that the UK's wheat production balance will improve in the coming years. The pig industry could be boosted by a recent trade deal to export to China, and the domestic market is appearing resilient. We see limited growth for the sugar and dairy industries, and note that the recent signature of the EU-Canada free trade agreement will favour local poultry.


Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 19.5% to 15.9mn tonnes. We expect the UK wheat industry to face challenges in the near term owing to increased competition for exports from the Black Sea region, decreasing direct payments to farmers as a result of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, and poor economies of scale on the back of a shift of EU ethanol policy towards non-food biofuels.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ..... 9
Agribusiness 9
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast ..... 14
Livestock Outlook ..... 14
Table: United Kingdom Poultry Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 15
Table: United Kingdom Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 15
Table: United Kingdom Pork Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 15
Table: United Kingdom Poultry Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . 20
Table: United Kingdom Pork Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 20
Table: United Kingdom Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 21
Grains Outlook . 21
Table: United Kingdom Wheat Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 22
Table: United Kingdom Corn Consumption, 2013-2018 . 22
Table: United Kingdom Barley Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 23
Table: United Kingdom Wheat Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 28
Table: United Kingdom Corn Consumption, 2008-2013 . 29
Table: United Kingdom Barley Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 29
Sugar Outlook ... 30
Table: United Kingdom Sugar Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 31
Table: United Kingdom Sugar Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . 34
Rice Outlook ..... 34
Table: United Kingdom Rice Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 34
Table: United Kingdom Rice Consumption, 2008-2013 36
Dairy Outlook ... 36
Table: United Kingdom Milk Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 37
Table: United Kingdom Butter Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 37
Table: United Kingdom Cheese Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 38
Table: United Kingdom Milk Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 41
Table: United Kingdom Butter Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 42
Table: United Kingdom Cheese Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 42
Commodities Price Analysis .. 43
Monthly Softs Update . 43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 53
Monthly Grains Update ..... 53
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and Forecasts 62
Upstream Analysis ... 63
Europe Machinery Outlook . 63
Table: Deere and Company - Agriculture and Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region 67
Europe GM Outlook .. 69
Europe Fertiliser Outlook .. 74
Downstream Analysis ..... 81
Food . 81
Food Consumption .. 81
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 82
Canned/Prepared Food .... 83
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 83
Confectionery .. 83
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 84
Snack Food ..... 85
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 86
Pasta ...... 90
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 90
Prepared Fish . 92
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 93
Other Processed Foods .... 96
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 96
Oils And Fats .. 98
Table: Oils and Fats Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 98
Dairy .... 103
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 104
Drink ..... 109
Hot Drinks .... 109
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 111
Table: Hot Drinks Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 111
Soft Drinks .... 113
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 114
Alcoholic Drinks ... 116
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 117
Table: Beer, Wine and Spirits Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 118
Mass Grocery Retail 121
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 122
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%) . 122
Competitive Landscape 123
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 123
Regional Overview . 124
Demographic Forecast . 130
Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 131
Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 132
Table: The United Kingdom's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . 133
Table: The United Kingdom's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . 133
Methodology .... 134
Industry Forecast Methodology ..... 134
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 135

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