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EpiCast Report: Breast Cancer (HER2-, HER2+) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that originates in the breast tissues. Most breast cancers are invasive tumors that have grown beyond the ducts or lobules of the breast and can metastasize to other parts of the body through the bloodstream and the lymphatic system. Prolonged exposure to endogenous and exogenous sex hormones, gene mutations, a family history of breast cancer, overweight and obesity, physical inactivity, a sedentary lifestyle, high alcohol consumption, early age at menarche (<12 years), late age at menopause (>55 years), and clinical factors, such as biopsy-confirmed atypical hyperplasia, and having a high breast tissue and bone density are all risk factors for breast cancer.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer in women in the 8MM is expected to grow to 1.21 million cases in 2023 at a rate of 4.23% per year during the forecast period. The number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases in the 8MM is expected to increase by 43.0% over the next decade to 5.12 million cases in 2023.

GlobalData’s forecast is supported by at least 10 years of robust, country-specific historical data obtained from the WHO International Agency for Cancer Research’s (IARC’s) SurvCan, the Surveillance of Epidemiology and End Results Program Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2009, EUROCARE-4, research articles published in peer-reviewed journals, and the IARC’s Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus database, which provided detailed case segmentation by age and sex and is considered the gold standard for international comparison of country-specific data. Another strength of this analysis is that GlobalData epidemiologists compared the incident case projections with the estimates made by country-specific registries and the IARC, and found that the forecast numbers were in accordance with the international estimates.

Scope

- The Breast Cancer (HER2-, HER2+) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for breast cancer in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China). In addition, the report also includes a 10-year forecast for the incident and the five-year prevalent cases of breast cancer in women segmented by age (20 to =85 years), natural menopausal status, cancer stage at diagnosis (local, regional, distant, unstaged), and hormone receptor subtypes: ER+ and/or PR+, HER2-; ER-, PR-, HER2+; ER+ and/or PR+, HER2+; and ER-, PR-, HER2- (triple negative).
- The breast cancer epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global breast cancer market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global breast cancer market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups, menopausal status, cancer stage, and hormone receptor subtypes that present the best opportunities for breast cancer therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Breast Cancer (HER2-, HER2+) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Related Reports 9
2.3 Upcoming Reports 9
3 Epidemiology 10
3.1 Disease Background 10
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
3.2.1 A family history of breast cancer and BRCA1/2 gene mutations significantly increase the breast cancer risk 12
3.2.2 Reproductive hormonal factors influence the risk of breast cancer 12
3.2.3 Modifiable lifestyle-related factors increase the risk of mortality in breast cancer patients 14
3.2.4 Screening programs have been shown to reduce breast cancer mortality, although the benefits need to be carefully weighed against the risks 16
3.3 Global Trends 19
3.3.1 Incidence 19
3.3.2 Prevalence and Survival 25
3.4 Forecast Methodology 29
3.4.1 Sources Used 31
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 35
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 36
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Breast Cancer (2013-2023) - Diagnosed Incident Cases 39
3.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer 39
3.5.2 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Age 41
3.5.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status 43
3.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer Segmented by Stage at Diagnosis 45
3.5.5 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer 46
3.6 Epidemiological Forecast for Breast Cancer (2013-2023) — Diagnosed Prevalent Cases 47
3.6.1 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer 47
3.6.2 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Menopausal Status 49
3.6.3 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Hormone Receptor Subtypes 50
3.7 Discussion 52
3.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 52
3.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 54
3.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 55
4 Appendix 57
4.1 Bibliography 57
4.2 About the Authors 66
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 66
4.2.2 Reviewers 66
4.2.3 Acting Director of Epidemiology 67
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 67
4.3 About GlobalData 68
4.4 About EpiCast 68
4.5 Disclaimer 69

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Selected Major Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Breast Cancer 11
Table 2: Breast Cancer Mortality Attributable to Lifestyle-Related Risk Factors 15
Table 3: 8MM, Current Status and Plans of Large-Scale Breast Cancer Screening Programs 18
Table 4: 8MM, Relative Survival Rate for Breast Cancer, All Ages*, Women, %, 1991-2004** 26
Table 5: Conversion of Common Staging Systems for Breast Cancer Used in the Forecast 30
Table 6: 8MM, Sources of the Breast Cancer Diagnosed Incidence Data Used in the Epidemiological Forecast 30
Table 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013-2023 40
Table 8: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Age, Women, N (Row %), 2013 42
Table 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N (Row %), 2013 44
Table 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013 45
Table 11: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013-2023 48
Table 12: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer by Hormone Receptor Subtypes, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013 51

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Age-Standardized Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages ?15 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2008 19
Figure 2: 8MM, Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages ?15 Years, Women, Rate per 100,000 Population, 2008 20
Figure 3: US, Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, All Ages, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1975-2009 21
Figure 4: 5EU, Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages ?15 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1975-2010 23
Figure 5: Japan, Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, All Ages, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2003-2008 24
Figure 6: 8MM, Relative Survival Rate for Breast Cancer, All Ages*, Women, %, 1991-2004** 26
Figure 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013-2023 41
Figure 8: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer, by Age, Women, N, 2013 43
Figure 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013 44
Figure 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013 46
Figure 11: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages ?20 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2013 47
Figure 12: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013-2023 49
Figure 13: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013 50
Figure 14: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer by Hormone Receptor Subtypes, Ages ?20 Years, Women, N, 2013 52

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