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Country Economic Forecasts > Iran Islamic Rep

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

The lifting of most international sanctions has helped drive a relatively modest pick-up in GDP growth to a forecast 4.3% in 2016/17 from an estimated 0.7% in 2015/16. Growth has been driven by increased oil production as well as increases in a number of non-oil sectors including agriculture, automotives, trade and transport services. Our base case scenario sees similar growth thereafter, falling well short of the Islamic Republic's sixth five-year development plan (2016-21) of 8% growth per annum amid fundamental reforms. Furthermore, the downside risk has been raised following the US presidential election success of Donald Trump, who when he takes office on January 20 has threatened to dismantle the nuclear deal or at the least to renegotiate aspects of the deal making use of his executive powers.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Iran Islamic Rep
Iranand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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