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Our growth forecast has barely changed with no new national accounts data and oil production rising broadly in line with expectations. The base case sees GDP growing by a forecast 4.3% pa over the forecast horizon - the same as estimated for 2016/17. Growth is being driven by increased oil production (following the lifting of most international sanctions) as well as increases in a number of non-oil sectors including agriculture, automotives, trade and transport services, aided by increased confidence and rising FDI. But the downside risk to our forecast has been raised further by the increasing risk that the US will dismantle or at least attempt to renegotiate aspects of the nuclear deal, the threat of a "snapback" of sanctions, and the distinct possibility of US military action.
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