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  5. > Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Rising risk of a renewed civil conflict poses downside risk to our oil production forecast for South Sudan. While a renewed conflict is not our core view, we expect the political and security environment to remain highly fractured over the coming years, weighing on any recovery in output. The outlook for both Sudan and South Sudan is poor over the long term. A thin competitive landscape, lack of exploration and chronic underinvestment will combine with a maturing asset base and rapid natural decline rates to drag down on overall output. The downstream sector will see little activity in both markets, due to domestic fiscal pressures and a lack of foreign participation.
Latest Updates And Key Trends

- Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.

- Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespread damage to infrastructure, faltering investment and a lack of wider foreign participation.

Table Of Contents

Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2020) 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Major Discoveries - Sudan And South Sudan 12
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Sudan - Upstream Projects 14
Table: South Sudan - Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends: Sudan 16
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2020-2025) 17
Structural Trends: South Sudan 18
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends: Sudan 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2020-2025) 23
Structural Trends: South Sudan 24
Refined Fuels Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends: Sudan 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Sudan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Sudan 2020-2025) 27
Structural Trends: South Sudan 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Sudan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Sudan 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends: Sudan Oil Trade 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2014-2020) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2020-2025) 30
Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016$$
Structural Tends: Sudan Fuels Trade 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2020-2025) 32
Structural Trends: South Sudan Oil Trade 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2014-2020) 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2020-2025) 34
Structural Trends: South Sudan Fuels Trade 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2020-2025) 35
Industry Risk Reward Index 36
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 36
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 39
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 39
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 42
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 42
Sudan And South Sudan - Risk/Reward Index 45
Market Overview 46
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview 46
Regulatory Overview 46
Licensing Regime 47
Fiscal Regime 47
Table: South Sudan PSC Main Fiscal Terms 47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 48
Oil Refineries 48
Table: Sudan Oil Refineries 48
Table: South Sudan Oil Refineries 48
Oil Storage Facilities 48
Table: Sudan and South Sudan Main Oil Storage Facilities 49
Oil Trade Facilities 49
Table: Sudan and South Sudan Main Oil Trade Facilities 49
Oil Pipelines 49
Table: Sudan and South Sudan Main Oil Pipelines 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Competitive Landscape Summary 50
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector 51
Table: Key Upstream Players 51
Table: Key Downstream Players 52
Company Profile 53
CNPC 53
Latest Updates 53
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Sudan and South Sudan 54
Table: Key Financial Data, CNYbn 54
ONGC Videsh 55
Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016$$
Latest Updates 55
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Sudan and South Sudan 56
Table: Key Financial Data, INRmn 56
Petronas 57
Latest Updates 57
Table: Main Upstream Assets In Sudan and South Sudan 58
Table: Key Financial Data, MYRbn 58
Regional Overview 59
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 59
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 68
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

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