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Strategic Analysis of the Latin American Powertrain Market

  • September 2014
  • 147 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 2377868

Summary

Table of Contents

Latin America to Have the Most Sustainable Powertrain Mix Worldwide, with a 44 to 46% Share of Flex Fuel Vehicles

Emission regulations and fuel economy standards are among the key drivers for the advancement of the Latin American powertrain market. The automotive structure of each country in Latin America presents varying drivers, challenges, trends, and powertrain markets. In terms of vehicle sales and production, this study forecasts the powertrain mix, transmission mix, and powertrain technologies such as injection, boosting, variable valve timing, and select exhaust aftertreatment technologies. The market forecast breakdown by OEM, region, transmission speed, and vehicle segment are discussed, followed by select OEM profiles and top predictions. The study discusses how Latin America is expected to have the most sustainable powertrain mix worldwide by 2020.

Executive Summary—Key Findings
LATAM
-Gasoline powertrains are expected to dominate the vehicle production mix in Latin America (LATAM) by 2020 with a share of to %, closely followed by flex fuel vehicles (FFV) at about to %. The diesel engine market is expected to experience growth in Chile, Argentina, and Colombia.
-Over % of vehicles produced in LATAM by 2020 are expected to have transmissions manufactured in-house by original equipment manufacturers (OEM). Volkswagen (VW), General Motors (GM), and Ford will hold a share of almost % by 2020. ZF Friedrichshafen AG and JATCO Ltd. are expected to have the highest growth, with a cumulative share of % because of high-speed transmissions (8- and 9-speed automatic transmission (AT)) and continuously variable transmission (CVT), respectively.
-In terms of gasoline and FFV production, variable valvetrain, direct injection (DI), and turbocharging are expected to witness accelerated growth, accounting for a market of over million, million, and million by 2020, respectively.

Brazil
-Powertrain outlook: Production of FFVs are expected to continue dominating with a share of to % by 2020. The current ban on diesel vehicles is expected to limit growth to a minimum of to % by 2020 because of the uptake in the sports utility vehicle (SUV) and pickup segments. At to %, manual transmissions (MT) are expected to continue dominating vehicle production.
-Powertrain technologies: INOVAR’s energy efficiency target of 1.82 megajoule (MJ)/km by 2017 is expected to be a key driver for the uptake of next-generation powertrain technologies, especially for FFVs. Ford’s DI flex engine and Fiat’s flex MultiAir are efforts in this direction. Flex DI and flex turbo are both expected to be present on over vehicles by 2020. In terms of research and development (R&D), micro-hybrids flex applications and powertrain lightweighting are other technologies expected to gain importance by the end of the decade. INOVAR 2 is expected to look toward fuel cells R&D, local supplier development, and increased emphasis on cleaner vehicles.

Argentina
-Powertrain outlook: Argentina is a key country in LATAM for sales of diesel vehicles and is expected to account for a share of 19 to % by 2020. The compressed natural gas (CNG) conversion market accounts for about units per year, which is expected to encourage the sales of OEM-fitted bi-fuel vehicles in the short-to-medium term. In terms of vehicle production, gasoline is expected to continue dominating with a share of to % by 2020.
-Powertrain technologies: The adoption of the Euro 5 emission norms in 2015 is expected to propel the uptake of diesel technologies such as a diesel particulate filter (DPF) (over % by 2020) and diesel variable-geometry turbo (VGT) ( to% by 2020). In terms of gasoline technologies, variable valve timing (VVT) is expected to have a penetration of close to % within the gasoline vehicles produced in Argentina by 2020.

Mexico
-Powertrain outlook: As a hub for US vehicle production, over 80% of vehicles by 2020 are expected to be gasoline. This is a key influencer for Mexico’s gasoline-dominated vehicle sales market, which is expected to account for over % by 2020. This is a key reason for the production of vehicles with CVTs, which is expected to have a share of to % by 2020 (the highest in the LATAM region), driven by Nissan and Honda.
-Powertrain technologies: The 2016 SEMARNAT target of kilometers per liter (km/L), along with credits offered for the introduction of next-generation technologies, is expected to fuel the market for gasoline direct injection (GDI), VVT, turbocharging, dual clutch transmissions (DCT), and CVT transmissions. OEMs are expected to adhere to their global powertrain strategies, a result of which GDI and gasoline turbo charging are expected to experience growth in Mexico.

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