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Strategic Analysis of the Latin American Powertrain Market

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 147 pages

Latin America to Have the Most Sustainable Powertrain Mix Worldwide, with a 44 to 46% Share of Flex Fuel Vehicles

Emission regulations and fuel economy standards are among the key drivers for the advancement of the Latin American powertrain market. The automotive structure of each country in Latin America presents varying drivers, challenges, trends, and powertrain markets. In terms of vehicle sales and production, this study forecasts the powertrain mix, transmission mix, and powertrain technologies such as injection, boosting, variable valve timing, and select exhaust aftertreatment technologies. The market forecast breakdown by OEM, region, transmission speed, and vehicle segment are discussed, followed by select OEM profiles and top predictions. The study discusses how Latin America is expected to have the most sustainable powertrain mix worldwide by 2020.

Executive Summary—Key Findings
LATAM
-Gasoline powertrains are expected to dominate the vehicle production mix in Latin America (LATAM) by 2020 with a share of to %, closely followed by flex fuel vehicles (FFV) at about to %. The diesel engine market is expected to experience growth in Chile, Argentina, and Colombia.
-Over % of vehicles produced in LATAM by 2020 are expected to have transmissions manufactured in-house by original equipment manufacturers (OEM). Volkswagen (VW), General Motors (GM), and Ford will hold a share of almost % by 2020. ZF Friedrichshafen AG and JATCO Ltd. are expected to have the highest growth, with a cumulative share of % because of high-speed transmissions (8- and 9-speed automatic transmission (AT)) and continuously variable transmission (CVT), respectively.
-In terms of gasoline and FFV production, variable valvetrain, direct injection (DI), and turbocharging are expected to witness accelerated growth, accounting for a market of over million, million, and million by 2020, respectively.

Brazil
-Powertrain outlook: Production of FFVs are expected to continue dominating with a share of to % by 2020. The current ban on diesel vehicles is expected to limit growth to a minimum of to % by 2020 because of the uptake in the sports utility vehicle (SUV) and pickup segments. At to %, manual transmissions (MT) are expected to continue dominating vehicle production.
-Powertrain technologies: INOVAR’s energy efficiency target of 1.82 megajoule (MJ)/km by 2017 is expected to be a key driver for the uptake of next-generation powertrain technologies, especially for FFVs. Ford’s DI flex engine and Fiat’s flex MultiAir are efforts in this direction. Flex DI and flex turbo are both expected to be present on over vehicles by 2020. In terms of research and development (R&D), micro-hybrids flex applications and powertrain lightweighting are other technologies expected to gain importance by the end of the decade. INOVAR 2 is expected to look toward fuel cells R&D, local supplier development, and increased emphasis on cleaner vehicles.

Argentina
-Powertrain outlook: Argentina is a key country in LATAM for sales of diesel vehicles and is expected to account for a share of 19 to % by 2020. The compressed natural gas (CNG) conversion market accounts for about units per year, which is expected to encourage the sales of OEM-fitted bi-fuel vehicles in the short-to-medium term. In terms of vehicle production, gasoline is expected to continue dominating with a share of to % by 2020.
-Powertrain technologies: The adoption of the Euro 5 emission norms in 2015 is expected to propel the uptake of diesel technologies such as a diesel particulate filter (DPF) (over % by 2020) and diesel variable-geometry turbo (VGT) ( to% by 2020). In terms of gasoline technologies, variable valve timing (VVT) is expected to have a penetration of close to % within the gasoline vehicles produced in Argentina by 2020.

Mexico
-Powertrain outlook: As a hub for US vehicle production, over 80% of vehicles by 2020 are expected to be gasoline. This is a key influencer for Mexico’s gasoline-dominated vehicle sales market, which is expected to account for over % by 2020. This is a key reason for the production of vehicles with CVTs, which is expected to have a share of to % by 2020 (the highest in the LATAM region), driven by Nissan and Honda.
-Powertrain technologies: The 2016 SEMARNAT target of kilometers per liter (km/L), along with credits offered for the introduction of next-generation technologies, is expected to fuel the market for gasoline direct injection (GDI), VVT, turbocharging, dual clutch transmissions (DCT), and CVT transmissions. OEMs are expected to adhere to their global powertrain strategies, a result of which GDI and gasoline turbo charging are expected to experience growth in Mexico.

Table Of Contents

Strategic Analysis of the Latin American Powertrain Market
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary
Executive Summary—Key Findings
Executive trategic Fact Sheet/Market Snapshot
Unit Vehicle Production Forecast by Powertrain Mix by Country
Unit Vehicle Production Forecast by Powertrain Mix by OEM
Unit Vehicle Production Forecast by Transmission Type and Country
Unit Vehicle Sales Forecast by Powertrain Mix by Country
Powertrain Technology Strategy Snapshot by Country
OEM Powertrain Technology Strategy Snapshot
Roadmap of Key Powertrain Technologies for Emission Compliance
LATAM's 2020 Powertrain Technology Strategy by OEM
Case Study—Vehicle Specifications for Success in LATAM
Executive Summary—Key Findings and Future Outlook

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, METHODOLOGY, AND BACKGROUND

Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Research Background
Research Methodology
Key OEM/Participant Groups Compared in This Study

3. DEFINITIONS AND SEGMENTATION

Definitions and Segmentation
Product/Technology Segmentation
Product/Technology Definitions
Vehicle Segmentation

4. OVERVIEW OF THE LATIN AMERICAN POWERTRAIN MARKET

Overview of the Latin American Powertrain Market
Key LATAM Powertrain Market Trends
LATAM Automotive Market Structure—Comparative Analysis
LATAM—Emission and Fuel Economy Targets
Unit Vehicle Production Forecast by Powertrain Mix by Vehicle Segment
Engine Displacement Trend
Unit Vehicle Production Forecast by Transmission Type and Speed
Unit Vehicle Production Forecast by Transmission Supplier
Transmission Suppliers Snapshot
Powertrain Technology Strategy Snapshot by Country
LATAM Powertrain Market—Key Observations

5. COUNTRY LEVEL OVERVIEW: FORECAST AND TRENDS—BRAZIL

Country Level Overview: Forecast and Trends—Brazil
Brazilian Emission Regulation
Brazilian New INOVAR Program
Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type and OEM
Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type and Vehicle Segment
Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix
Transmission Technologies
Transmission Technologies—Supplier Outlook
Powertrain Technology Snapshot
Powertrain Technology—OEM Snapshot
Injection Technologies
Boosting Technologies
Engine Displacement
Powertrain Technology Roadmap
Brazil Powertrain Market—Key Observations

6. FORECAST AND TRENDS—ARGENTINA

Forecast and Trends—Argentina
Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type and OEM
Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type and Vehicle Segment
Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix
Transmission Technologies
Transmission Technologies
Powertrain Technology Snapshot
Injection Technologies
Boosting Technologies
Engine Displacement
Argentina Powertrain Market—Key Observations

7. FORECAST AND TRENDS—MEXICO

Forecast and Trends—Mexico
Mexico's PC CO2 and Fuel Economy Standards
Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type and OEM
Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type and Vehicle Segment
Transmission Technologies
Powertrain Technology Snapshot
Injection Technologies
Boosting Technologies
Mexico—Unit Shipment Forecast—Powertrain Technologies
Mexico Powertrain Market—Key Observations

8. FORECAST AND TRENDS—COLOMBIA

Forecast and Trends—Colombia
Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type, OEM, and Vehicle Segment
Colombia—Transmission Forecast
Engine Technologies
Colombia—Forecast Discussion

9. COUNTRY LEVEL OVERVIEW: FORECAST AND TRENDS—CHILE

Country Level Overview: Forecast and Trends—Chile
Chile—Legislation
Chile—Unit Shipment—Powertrain Mix by Vehicle Category
Chile—Unit Shipment—Transmission Mix
Chile—Engine Efficiency
Chile—Unit Shipment Forecast—Powertrain Technologies
Chile Powertrain Market—Key Observations

10. FORECAST AND TRENDS—PERU

Forecast and Trends—Peru
Peru—Unit Shipment-Powertrain Mix
Peru—Unit Shipment—Powertrain Mix by Vehicle Category
Peru—Unit Shipment Forecast—Transmission Technologies
Peru—Unit Shipment Forecast—Powertrain Technologies
Peru Powertrain Market—Key Observations

11. COUNTRY LEVEL OVERVIEW:FORECAST AND TRENDS—OTHER LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS

Country Level Overview:Forecast and Trends—Other Latin American Markets
Venezuela—Top Level Fact Sheet
Ecuador—Top Level Fact Sheet
Uruguay—Top Level Fact Sheet

12. OEM PROFILES

OEM Profiles
Fiat-Chrysler Group—LATAM Powertrain Outlook
Fiat-Chrysler Group—Engine Families
Fiat-Chrysler Group—Powertrain Technology Snapshot
Ford Group—LATAM Powertrain Outlook
Ford Group—Engine Families
Ford Group—Powertrain Technology Snapshot
GM Group—LATAM Powertrain Outlook
GM Group—Engine Families
GM Group—Powertrain Technology Snapshot
Renault-Nissan Group—LATAM Powertrain Outlook
Renault-Nissan Group—Engine Families
Renault-Nissan Group—Powertrain Technology Snapshot
Toyota Group—LATAM Powertrain Outlook
Toyota Group—Engine Families
Toyota Group—Powertrain Technology Snapshot
VW Group—LATAM Powertrain Outlook
VW Group—Engine Families
VW Group—Powertrain Technology Snapshot

13. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

Conclusions and Future Outlook
Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer

14. APPENDIX

Appendix
Table of Acronyms Used
Market Engineering Methodology

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