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StatPlan has reviewed hundreds of data sources from around the world and assembled databases for each year and every country from 1900 to the present day. This historical record is, we believe, unique. It is also critical to understanding the increasingly important replacement market.
At a global level, the replacement of existing transformers will soon be a larger part of the market than the new installation segment. In many parts of the world, it already is the greater part of the market. Therefore, understanding not just the installed base, but also when it was installed and then factoring in design life and likely replacement phases is essential to forecasting the market. Just because energy demand growth is linear, that does not mean that demand for plant and equipment is similarly linear. In fact, it is cyclical.

We also take account of other determinants of demand, often overlooked by other forecasters, including:
- Demographic change (in some major markets population is declining—we look at the long term impact
- Electrification—developing markets are steadily increasing penetration of electrification, having a direct impact on distribution in particular.
- Governmental interventions, particularly with regard to renewables.

Table Of Contents

The Global Market for Transformers Ed. 3: Short Term Forecasts 2014—2020 - Long Term Trends to 2050
SURVEY CONTENT
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market Value
Global market growth to 2020
European growth is steady
Asia growth high
US based transformer manufacturers responding to demand
Service life of transformers
Transformer capacity
Renewable and distributed generation
Raw material cost rising since 2003, but now stabilising
TandD losses can be addressed with AMTs, but capital cost is restrictive
Transformer ownership
The impact of household electrification
Aging transmission and distribution systems
Environmental benefits and MEPS
THE TRANSFOMATION PROCESS, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER TYPES AND OWNERSHIP
The transformation Process
Network Configurations for distribution - Radial, Loop and Network systems
Review of regional practices, North America and Europe
Types of Transformer
Evolution of power transformers by size and capacity
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
1.1 Market Value 11
1.2 Global market growth to 2017 11
1.3 European growth is steady 11
1.4 Asia growth high 12
1.5 US based transformer manufacturers responding to demand 12
1.6 Service life of transformers 12
1.7 Transformer capacity 13
1.8 Renewable and distributed generation 13
1.9 Raw material cost rising since 2003, but now stabilising 13
1.10 TandD losses can be addressed with AMTs, but capital cost is restrictive 14
1.11 Transformer ownership 14
1.12 The impact of household electrification 14
1.13 Aging transmission and distribution systems 15
1.14 Environmental benefits and MEPS 15

2. THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER TYPES AND OWNERSHIP
2.1 The transformation process 16
2.2 Network Configurations for distribution - Radial, Loop and Network systems 17
2.3 Review of regional practices 18
2.3.1 North America 18
2.3.2 Europe 20
2.4 Types of Transformer 21
2.5 Evolution of power transformers by size and capacity 23
2.6 Ownership of power and distribution transformers 23

3. ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS 26
3.1 Government response to losses and the drive to higher efficiency 26
3.2 Development of a new technology - Amorphous Core Transformers 29
3.3 The market for AMTs 30
3.4 Amorphous metal ribbon manufacturers 31
3.5 HTS -High temperature superconductor transformers 33

4. MATERIALS COSTS 34
4.1 Electrical Steel - Introduction 35
4.2 The electrical steel market 36
4.3 Electrical steel producers 36
4.4 Copper 37
4.5 Transformer oil 38

5. LOGISTICS 40
5.1 Rail transport 40
5.2 Road transport 42

6. RATIOS OF TRANSFORMATION CAPACITY TO GENERATING CAPACITY 46

7. UTILITY, GSU and INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER
CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVERAGE kVA PER UNIT 52
7.1 Europe 52
7.2 CIS 55
7.3 Africa and Middle East 57
7.4 Asia Pacific 60
7.5 Americas 63

8. THE TRANSFORMER CAPACITY DEMAND CYCLE 66
8.1 Overview 66
8.2 Installed transformation capacity 70
8.3 The China Factor 71
8.4 Annual demand for capacity 72
8.5 Regional trends- New versus replacement 74

9. ANALYSIS OF GENERATION MIX AND IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSFORMERS 76
9.1 Trends in the generation mix 76
9.2 The impact of generation developments on transformation technology 77

10. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY 80
10.1 Manufacturing capacity, global and by region 80
10.2 Global balance of production capacity and demand 83

11. POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET VALUE 84
11.1 World overview 84
11.2 Utility, Generator and Industry Transformer Capacity Ownership 85

12. TRANSFORMER SUPPLY: THE MANUFACTURERS 86
12.1 Background to the production situation today 86
12.2 The re-expansion of transformer production capacity since 2006 88
12.3 Capacity utilisation 88
12.4 Transformer remanufacturing and repairing 88
12.5 Manufacturers' market shares 89
12.6 International trade in transformers: Imports and exports 90

13. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN AND FORECASTS FOR TRANSFORMER MARKETS 92
13.1 Europe 92
13.1.1 Regional Overview 92
13.1.2 Market Drivers 96
13.1.3 European manufacturing industry review 96
13.1.4 France 99
13.1.5 Germany 100
13.1.6 Italy 102
13.1.7 Spain 104
13.1.8 United Kingdom 10513.2 Middle East and Africa 106
13.2.1 Regional overview 106
13.2.2 Market review and drivers 106
13.2.3 Manufacturing industry review 107
13.3 Asia Pacific 108
13.3.1 Regional overview 108
13.3.2 China 109
13.3.3 Japan 113
13.3.4 India 116
13.3.5 Korea 119
13.3.6 Taiwan 120
13.4 The Americas 121
13.4.1 United States 122
13.4.2 Brazil 132
13.4.3 Mexico 134

14. TRANSFORMER CAPACITY and UNITS BY REGION AND COUNTRY, 2010 - 2020 136
Europe 136
CIS 139
Middle East 140
North Africa 142
Sub-Saharan Africa 143
Asia 145
Pacific 148
South America 149
Central America 151
North America 152
World 153

15. METHODOLOGY 154

FIGURES AND TABLES

Table 1: Number of LV consumers, number of distribution transformers and average LV customer per
transformer in selected countries
Table 2: Network losses by region
Table 3: Manufacturers of energy efficient transformers in China, 2013
Table 4: Electrical producers by country and production in 2009
Table 5: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Europe
Table 6: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), CIS
Table 7: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Middle East
Table 8: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Africa
Table 9: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Asia Pacific
Table 10: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Latin America
Table 11: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), North America
Table 12: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and
ownership, 2013 - Europe
Table 13: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers numbers by country and
ownership, 2013 - Europe
Table 14: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers average capacity MVA/trf. -
kVA/trf. By country and ownership, 2013 - Europe
Table 15: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and
ownership, 2013 - CIS
Table 16: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers numbers by country and
ownership, 2013 -CIS
Table 17: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers average capacity MVA/trf. -
kVA/trf. By country and ownership, 2013 - CIS
Table 18: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and
ownership, 2013 - Africa and Middle East
Table 19: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers numbers by country and
ownership, 2013 - Africa and Middle East
Table 20: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers average capacity MVA/trf. -
kVA/trf. By country and ownership, 2013 - Africa and Middle East
Table 21: Generator, Utility and Industrial, Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and
ownership, 2013 - Asia Pacific
Table 22: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers numbers by country and
ownership, 2013 -Asia Pacific
Table 23: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers average capacity MVA/trf. -
kVA/trf. By country and ownership, 2013 - Asia Pacific
Table 24: Generator, Utility and Industrial, Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and
ownership, 2013 - Americas
Table 25: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers numbers by country and
ownership, 2013 -Americas
Table 26: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformers average capacity MVA/trf. -
kVA/trf. By country and ownership, 2013 - Americas
Table 27: Global generating capacity mix by energy source, 1990 - 2050
Table 28: Global manufacturers' production capacity, power and distribution transformers, 2013
Table 29: China, manufacturers' production capacity, power and distribution transformers, 2013
Table 30: India, manufacturers' production capacity, power and distribution transformers, 2013
Table 31: CIS, manufacturers' production capacity, power and distribution transformers, 2013
Table 32: Global power and distribution transformer market value, Current $, 2013 - 2020Table 33: Power and distribution transformer market in current $ values, World by Region, 2013 - 2020
Table 34: Analysis of transformer types by trade value, imports and exports, average 2000 - 2012
Table 35: Percent of imports and exports of power and distribution transformers averaged for 2000 -2012, by
country
Table 36: Power and distribution transformer market value, Europe and CIS, current $, 2013 - 2020
Table 37: Installed base of utility and industrial transformers, Europe 2010 and 2020
Table 38: Annual sales of power and distribution transformers, Europe, 2010 and 2020
Table 39: Installed transformer capacity 2013, France
Table 40: Installed transformer capacity 2013, Germany
Table 41: Installed transformer capacity 2013, Italy
Table 42: Installed transformer capacity 2013, Spain
Table 43: Installed transformer capacity 2013, United Kingdom
Table 44: Power and distribution transformer market value, Middle East and Africa, Current $, 2013 - 2020
Table 45: Power and distribution transformer market value, current $, Asia, 2013 - 2020
Table 46: Power and distribution transformer market value, current $, Pacific, 2013 - 2020
Table 47: Installed transformer capacity 2013, China
Table 48: Production of transformers in 2009, China
Table 49: Installed transformer capacity 2013, Japan
Table 50: Transformer manufacturers in Japan
Table 51: Installed transformer capacity 2013, India
Table 52: Transformer manufacturers in India
Table 53: Installed transformer capacity 2013, Korea
Table 54: Installed transformer capacity 2013, Taiwan
Table 55: Power and distribution transformer market value, Americas, 2013-2020
Table 56: Shipments of transformers in 2009, number and capacity MVA, United States
Table 57: Installed transformer capacity 2013, United States
Table 58: Market shares of Power Transformer Producers in the United States
Table 59: Installed transformer capacity 2013, Brazil
Table 60: Installed transformer capacity 2013, Mexico
Table 61: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers, utilities, industry and GSUs, Europe, 2010
Table 62: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Europe,
2015
Table 63: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Europe,
2020
Table 64: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, CIS, 2010
Table 65: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, CIS, 2015
Table 66: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, CIS, 2020
Table 67: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Middle East,
2010
Table 68: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Middle East,
2015
Table 69: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Middle East,
2020
Table 70: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, North Africa,
2010Table 71: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, North Africa,
2015
Table 72: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, North Africa,
2020
Table 73: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2010
Table 74: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2015
Table 75: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2020
Table 76: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Asia, 2010
Table 77: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Asia, 2015
Table 78: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Asia, 2020
Table 79: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Pacific, 2010
Table 80: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Pacific, 2015
Table 81: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Pacific, 2020
Table 82: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, South
America, 2010
Table 83: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, South
America, 2015
Table 84: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, South
America, 2020
Table 85: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Central
America, 2010
Table 86: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Central
America, 2015
Table 87: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, Central
America, 2020
Table 88: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, North
America, 2010
Table 89: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, North
America, 2015
Table 90: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, North
America, 2020
Table 91: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, World, 2010
Table 92: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, World, 2015
Table 93: Transformer capacity MVA and number of transformers for utilities, industry and GSUs, World, 2020
Figure 1: The UK Electrical Power Transmission and Distribution System
Figure 2: Evolution of transformers in voltage kV and capacity MVA
Figure 3: Proportion of capacity (MVA) generator, utility and industrial ownership of power and distribution
transformers by region
Figure 4: Costs of manufacturing an oil filled- transformer
Figure 5: Copper prices 2007-2013
Figure 6: The quad booster, dwarfing the truckFigure 7: Two Schnabel cars unloaded
Figure 8: Schnabel car with load
Figure 9: The largest load ever transported by road in the United Kingdom
Figure 10: Overhead obstructions
Figure 11: Transformer off the road
Figure 12: Installed capacity of power and distribution transformers, GVA, 1900 - 2050
Figure 13: Global installed transformation capacity and demand 1900 - 2050, GVA
Figure 14: The cycle of demand, new and replacement capacity, 1900 - 2050, GVA.
Figure 15: Installed power transformer capacity and annual demand, 1900 - 2050, GVA.
Figure 16: Installed distribution transformer capacity and annual demand, 1900 - 2050, GVA.
Figure 17: Global utility transformation capacity installed base, GVA, 1900 - 2050
Figure 18: Annual transformer demand, excluding China, 1900 - 2050
Figure 19: Annual transformer demand including China, 1900 - 2050
Figure 20: Annual power and distribution transformer demand, GVA, 10 year intervals 1900 - 2050
Figure 21: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, 1900 - 2050
Figure 22: Utility transformation capacity demand, 1940 - 2050
Figure 23: New versus replacement capacity, 1950 - 2050, by region
Figure 24: Global generating capacity mix, 1990 - 2050
Figure 25: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013
Figure 26: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013
Figure 27: Power and distribution transformer market value, World by Region, 2013-2020
Figure 28: Investment in the Japanese electrical supply industry 1976 - 2010
Figure 29: Capital expenditure in the German electrical supply industry, generation and TandD, 1993 - 2012
Figure 30: Global market shares of the power and distribution transformer manufacturers
Figure 31: Share price decline for European utilities
Figure 32: Imports of power transformers (Oil filled ? 10 MVA), into the United States from Canada, Mexico
and Korea 2000-2013, $ value
Figure 33: Diagram of new plus total replacement capacity
Figure 34: The global demand cycle and installed generating capacity, 1900 - 2050

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