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Democratic Republic of the Congo Mining Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The DRC's mining sector will be supported by the country's vast high-grade mineral reserves and strong mining project pipeline. Despite this, low mineral prices, mineral policy uncertainty and unrest in the east will limit investment growth.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends


- The country's regulatory uncertainty remains a key concern to the sector's long-term growth. Ongoing mineral policy uncertainty could deter new investment from entering the sector and halt new projects from coming online. In our view, a production growth slowdown would have considerable effects within the country.

- Copper: We expect copper prices to experience a mild rebound over the second half of 2016, respecting the lows of the first half of the year, supported by production cuts. Our average forecast of USD4,900/ tonne in 2016 represents the bottom of copper's multi-year price decline, and we expect the metal to trend higher over our forecast period to 2020 (see: 'Copper: The Worst Is Over' June 2).

- Glencore's September 7 2015 decision to suspend operations at the firm's Katanga mine will significantly impact DRC's copper production growth. In our view, DRC's copper production will decline from 1.10 million tonnes (mnt) in 2014 to 1.05mnt in 2016.

Table Of Contents

Democratic Republic of the Congo Mining Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Congo (DRC) - Mining Industry Value Forecast 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Copper: Growth To Pick Up By 2017 10
Table: Global Copper Production Forecast 10
Latest Developments 10
Table: DRC - Copper Projects 11
Structural Trends 12
Risks To Outlook 14
Gold: Growth To Remain Strong 15
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Congo (DRC)) 15
Latest Developments 15
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19
Democratic Republic of Congo - Risk/Reward Index 19
Rewards 19
Industry Rewards 19
Country Rewards 19
Risks 19
Industry Risks 19
Country Risks 20
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 20
Key Takeaways 20
Latest Revisions 21
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices 22
Regulatory Development 23
Trade And Investment Risk Analysis 25
Commodities Forecast 28
Commodities Outlook 28
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 28
Competitive Landscape 30
Table: Congo (DRC) Key Players - Comparative Valuation Metrics 31
Company Profile 32
Global Company Strategy - AngloGold Ashanti - Q4 2016 32
Table: Gold Price Forecast 34
Company Strategy 36
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data 38
Freeport-McMoRan - Q4 2016 39
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 41
Table: Freeport McMoRan - Key Financial Data 45
Table: Copper Operational Highlights, 2015 46
Global Company Strategy - Randgold Resources - Q4 2016 47
Table: Gold Price Forecast 49
Company Analysis 49
Table: Select Gold Companies Data 51
Latest Financial Results 52
Table: Randgold Resources - Key Financial Data 55
Regional Overview 56
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview 56
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 62
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

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