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A new growth driver for satellite

This report compares and analyses how the various fixed networks are positioned for broadcasting UHD, and also identifies which technologies are best suited to the format by looking at their specific strengths and weaknesses.

It analyses the importance of UHD in the strategies of consumer electronics manufacturers and its impact on growth in the TV market.
The report also looks at the positioning of content publishing and distribution players in the context of UHD by evaluating which of these players are adopting pioneering strategies. Some of the strategies used to integrate UHD into players' offerings are detailed.

Finally, it aims to analyse the impact of this new market on the satellite industry using market forecasts for 2018.

Table Of Contents

Ultra High Definition - A new growth driver for satellite
Contents
1. Executive Summary 7
1.1. Quality will vary between the various broadcast networks.. 7
1.2. UHD, a growth driver for the TV set market... 9
1.3. Content distributors and broadcasters gradually integrating UHD into their strategies. 10
1.4. Satellite particularly well-positioned for broadcasting high-quality UHD to a wide audience 11
2. Methodology and definitions ... 13
2.1. General methodology of IDATE's reports 13
2.2. Methodology specific to this report: forecasting methodology. 14
2.3. Definition of UHD 16
2.3.1. Format.. 16
2.3.2. HEVC a necessity 18
3. Comparison of various fixed networks with regard to UHD broadcast positioning. 21
3.1. Fixed networks: strengths and weaknesses for UHD distribution 21
3.1.1. DTT .. 21
3.1.2. Cable 22
3.1.3. IPTV . 25
3.1.4. OTT.. 27
3.1.5. Satellite 28
3.2. Which network will be the most suited to broadcasting UHD?.. 31
3.2.1. DTT is not suitable ... 31
3.2.2. Coverage of broadband terrestrial networks is limited.. 32
3.2.3. Satellite, pioneering high quality video broadcasts... 33
4. Issues around equipment. 35
4.1. TVs, primary driver of market growth in a diverse technological context 35
4.1.1. UHD only just taking-off 35
4.1.2. The range of UHD products available is growing . 35
4.1.3. UHD shooting and broadcasting still in the testing phase 36
4.2. From LCD to OLED: a desirable convergence of these technologies ... 37
4.3. Pricing models of TV technologies... 38
4.4. UHD, a growth driver for the TV set market. 39
4.4.1. Renewed market growth by 2016. 39
4.4.2. 'Smart TVs' will account for 41% of TV sales in 2014... 39
4.4.3. Growth of the Ultra-HD market is expected to accelerate from 2016 ... 41
4.5. STBs are essential . 43
5. The positioning of content distribution and broadcast players in relation to UHD.. 45
5.1. Players' fingers burned by 3D... 45
5.2. But the success of OTT could be an incentive to differentiate through 'premiumisation' .. 45
5.3. OTT operators: possible pioneers of UHD?. 46
5.3.1. OTT leaders are focusing on 4K in their strategies .. 46
5.3.2. A way to assert their leadership in the face of traditional channels... ... 46
5.3.3. ... and up against consumer electronics players... 46
5.3.4. ... who are themselves adopting an OTT 4K distribution strategy 46
5.3.5. A potential obstacle: ISPs wanting to cap broadband speeds.. 48
5.4. TV channels: still exercising caution ... 48
5.4.1. The difference in quality not discernible enough for consumers... 48
5.4.2. Business model questions 49
5.4.3. Public service channels driving UHD forward... 49
5.4.4. A strong correlation between enthusiasm from channels and the presence of national equipment vendors 50
5.4.5. Gradual creation of a UHD content catalogue contributing to enhancing the quality of HD.. 51
5.4.6. Major channels interested in testing UHD over DTT 51
5.4.7. Development is likely to be driven by major international sporting events in the future 51
5.4.8. Caution also influenced by the economic climate. 52
5.5. Still not many distribution players present in this market . 52
5.5.1. Cable operators could invest in UHD to offer a more comprehensive range of services.. 53
5.5.2. Telcos are in a strong position with fibre .. 54
5.5.3. DTH service providers are positioning themselves to maintain their lead 55
6. UHD, a growth driver for satellite operators? . 58
6.1. Market forecasts for 2018 .. 58
6.2. Long-term uncertainty and opportunity factors for satellite operators. 60
6.2.1. Growth drivers and barriers to UHD development 60
6.2.2. With growth expected to accelerate from 2019, this market could be a source of significant revenue for
satellite operators. 60

Tables and Figures
Table 1: Key factors affecting demand for satellite as a TV/video broadcasting medium .. 15
Table 2: Compatibility of UHDTV in MPEG-4 AVC, DTT ... 21
Table 3: Compatibility of cable with UHD using HEVC, DVB-C vs DVB-C2 .. 23
Table 4: Satellite UHD compatibility in HEVC per 36 MHz frequency 29
Table 5: Summary of satellite capacity rental costs for a SD/HD/UHD channel using DVB-S or DVB-S2. 29
Table 6: Summary: Positioning comparison between different broadcast networks .. 31
Table 7: TV price ranges by screen size, 2014.. 39
Table 8: UHD TV sales, 2014-2018 .. 41
Table 9: Features of STBs offered by various telcos and pay-TV operators, end of 2013. 43
Table10: Growth in Free's ARPU 44
***
Figure 1: Positioning comparison between different broadcast networks . 8
Figure 2: UHD TV sales by region, 2014-2018 . 9
Figure 3: Total UHD channels broadcast by satellite per geographic region, 2014-2018... 11
Figure 4: Number of transponders used for broadcasting UHDTV services and UHD market valuation, worldwide,
2014-2018... 12
Figure 5: Resolution comparison for different generations.. 16
Figure 6: Comfortable viewing distances 17
Figure 7: Motion rendering at 50 frames per second .. 17
Figure 8: Forecasts for the launch of the various UHD phases... 18
Figure 9: Specifications and impact of HEVC . 19
Figure 10: Video bit rates according to coding technology 19
Figure 11: Roadmap for adoption of the HEVC codec .. 20
Figure 12: Spectrum allocation . 22
Figure 13: Example Spectrum Options . 24
Figure 14: Implementation of OFDM in DOCSIS 3.1 24
Figure 15: Comparison between different DOCSIS standards.. 24
Figure 16: Schedule for DOCSIS 3.1 equipment availability. 25
Figure 17: xDSL performance... 26
Figure 18: Distribution of DVB-S/S2 use worldwide in 2013 . 28
Figure 19: Gains from DVB-S2 . 28
Figure 20: Growth in reach of various key positions, 2009-2012 .. 30
Figure 21: Fibre and Docsis 3.0 network coverage, end of 2013. 32
Figure 22: Subscriptions by speed, Europe, January 2014... 32
Figure 23: Number of HD channels broadcast by satellite worldwide, mid-2013 .. 33
Figure 24: Proportion of HD channels broadcast by satellite worldwide, 2013 . 34
Figure 25: Average mainstream prices of various TV technologies and their life cycle in 2014 38
Figure 26: TV sales by region, 2014-2018 39
Figure 27: Connectable and non-connectable TVs sold worldwide .. 40
Figure 28: Share of connectable and non-connectable TVs sold worldwide, by region 40
Figure 29: UHD TV sales by region, 2014-2018 ... 41
Figure 30: Distribution of Ultra-HD TV sales worldwide by geographical region in 2018 .. 42
Figure 31: UHD TV installed base and penetration rates.. 42
Figure 32: Sony's 4K Video Unlimited service .. 47
Figure 33: Netflix' UHD streaming at 15.6 Mbps ... 47
Figure 34: UHD tests by South Korea's national broadcaster KBS with the documentary Colors: 4 Desires ... 51
Figure 35: List of forthcoming major sporting events, 2014-2020 52
Figure 36: UHD programming test at the Sochi Olympic Games, early 2014 ... 54
Figure 37: Excerpt from Verizon's homepage ... 54
Figure 38: Comparison of upload and download speeds among the main Internet service providers in the United
States... 55
Figure 39: 4K demonstration by SES Astra at the IBC in Amsterdam in 2012.. 56
Figure 40: The MediaPlay DST839 by Technicolor... 57
Figure 41: Total UHD channels broadcast by satellite worldwide, 2014-2018 . 58
Figure 42: Total UHD channels broadcast by satellite per geographic region, 2014-2018... 59
Figure 43: Total satellite transponders used for broadcasting UHD channels worldwide and by geographical region,
2014-2018... 61
Figure 44: Number of transponders used for broadcasting UHDTV services and UHD market valuation, worldwide,
2014-2018... 61
List of case studies
BBC 50
Comcast. 53
Free 44
Netflix .. 27 ; 47
Sky Deutschland... 57

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