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UK Parcels: Market Insight 2014

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Apex Insight
  • -
  • 73 pages

In this report Apex Insight reviews the UK parcels market encompassing the business-to-business, business-to-consumer and consumer / small business consigned segments.
- We quantify the market size, historical growth rates, segmentation patterns and levels of industry profitability while reviewing key factors behind these figures.
- Our market size estimate is derived from our bottom-up model of the revenues of all of the operators in the market with adjustments made to take into account a range of factors. This model has been regularly updated and refined since it was first developed in 2004.

We also carry out an in-depth analysis of the relevant drivers of industry growth – in particular the macroeconomic environment and home shopping – setting out historical trends and available forecasts.
Apex Insight's forecast for industry growth by segment is based on this analysis of historical trends and our understanding of growth drivers.
- For the 2014 edition of the report we have reviewed our market sizing, segmentation and forecasting methodology and made a series of changes which we believe significantly improve the reliability and accuracy of our market data.

What are the objectives of this report?

The UK parcels industry has continued to evolve dynamically with
- Continued overall volume growth
- New investment in additional and upgraded facilities
- Macro factors such as the trend growth of home shopping and the cyclical impact of the economy on volumes continuing to provide challenges and opportunities
- Ongoing refinement of operating models and launch of new service features to enable evolving customer needs to be served profitably
The report is intended for parcels carriers themselves, users of their services, partners, investors, banks, analysts, consultants and other parties with interests in the sector.

What are the sources and methodology

This report is based on
- Financial analysis of the accounts of companies in the industry
- Interviews with senior-level Apex Insight contacts in the market
- In-depth analysis of the macroeconomic environment and relevant market drivers
- Our own experience of advising both companies and investors in the parcels industry

Information from these sources has been synthesised and presented clearly and concisely with extensive use of charts and tables to illuminate points and support conclusions.

Table Of Contents

UK Parcels: Market Insight 2014
Introduction - 2
-About this report
-Executive summary
-About Apex Insight

List of charts and tables - 6

Parcels market - 7
-Background
-Market size and growth
-Segmentation
-Volume and value trends

Market drivers - 19
-Discussion of market drivers
-GDP
-Inflation
-Household disposable income and retail sales
-Measures of business-to-consumer parcel volumes
-Internet shopping value
-Views of other analysts
-Transactions not resulting in a delivery
-Internet shopping: international comparisons
-International transactions
-Penetration of internet shopping enablers
-Transaction size and implied mail order transaction volume
-Internet shopping returns rate and implied mail order parcels shipment volumes

Competitive landscape - 35
-Types of parcels carriers
-Carrier size and growth
-Operating models and segment focus
-Carrier profitability
-Employment and productivity
-Industry cost inflation
-Share price performance

Apex Insight forecasts - 59
-Forecast Approach
-GDP Forecast
-Relationship between real GDP and growth of the B2B parcels segment
-Household disposable income and retail sales outlook
-Internet shopping value
-Transactions not resulting in a delivery
-International transactions
-Transaction size and implied mail order transaction volume
-Internet shopping returns rate and implied mail order parcels shipment volumes
-Overall parcels market value forecast
-Risks to the forecast

Appendix - 62



Companies Mentioned
TNT Express
DHL
UPS
Yodel
Parcelforce Worldwide
City Link
DPD
Hermes
FedEx
UK Mail
Interlink
Nightfreight
Tuffnells
DX
APC
Royal Mail

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