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Country Economic Forecasts > Yemen Rep

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 4 pages

UN peace talks were suspended on August 6, after four months of attempted negotiations to end the fierce 19-month war between the exiled government of President Hadi, backed by Saudi Arabia, and Houthi rebels for ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh, backed by Iran. Since the end of these UN negotiations, the civil war has escalated, with more than 10,000 people reported to have been killed in total, a sharp increase from around 6,400 in April. The UN Special Envoy for Yemen announced preparations to create a fourth round of UN-mediated talks, but these are yet to be confirmed and a lasting political agreement looks some way off.

Meanwhile, with the economy and infrastructure devastated by violence and oil prices weak, the economic outlook looks miserable: after an estimated fall of 28% in 2015, we forecast a further contraction of 10% for GDP this year.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Yemen Rep
Yemenand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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