Table of Contents
Gasoline to Dominate, Clean Diesels to Grow in Tandem with Electrified Powertrains
- Downsizing will pioneer the development of many related systems, including direct injections and advanced combustion strategies. Clean diesel technologies and electrified powertrains will see comparable growth levels.
- For passenger cars, the stringency of fuel economy targets is expected to grow at the rate of x% for model years (MYs) 2017–2021 and at x% through MYs 2022–2025. For light trucks, the stringency is set to grow at a lower pace, x%, for MYs 2017–2021 and will grow at x% every year for MYs 2022–2025.
- For almost all of the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), engines up to xL (liters) will grow faster than the larger engines. While downsizing could be the first priority for many, some will equally focus on improved combustion strategies, high-pressure injection systems, and energy-efficient turbochargers.
- Clean diesel technologies pioneered by European OEMs are likely to gain increased popularity and may grab some market share from expensive electrics in the medium term.
- Transmission technologies will have higher role of improving drivability and fuel economy and, consequently, will pave the way to automatics, continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), and dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) with higher speed ratios.
- Manufacturers with a larger proportion of high displacement engines will have aggressive strategies for displacement on demand (DoD) technologies, lightweighting, friction reduction, and energy recovery technologies.
- Fuel cells and other alternative propulsion techniques will see a boost towards 2020 with major OEMs, such as Ford, Toyota, GM, and Daimler, going forward with aggressive development plans.
- Invariably, all OEMs will exploit the fuel saving potential of stop-start systems and the same will see an average x% to x% deployment in all OEMs by 2020.
- With the aggressive deployment of advanced engine and transmission technologies, together with alternative propulsion techniques, the fuel efficiency outlook can turn positive for almost all OEMs by 2020.
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