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Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 33 pages

Core Views
While conflicts between various tribes and ethnicities have been ongoing in both Sudan and South Sudan, the descent into full-scale armed conflict in South Sudan has major negative implications for the two countries, namely significantly curtailing growth and weakening the external accounts. T he Sudanese economy will continue to operate well below potential in 2015 on account of restrained government spending, an unappealing investment climate, and domestic and regional insecurity. We predict that real GDP growth in 2015 will come in at 3.9%.

Major Forecast Changes
N o major forecast changes

Table Of Contents

Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views..5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Key Risks To Outlook..5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis. 7
BMI Political Risk Index.. 7
Domestic Politics .. 8
Political Reform Chances Slim..8
Internationally mediated talks between the main rebel umbrella group and the government set for October have generated cautious
hopes of genuine political reform, but the balance of evidence still points to only a small chance of a peaceful outcome to Sudan's
current governance malaise.
Foreign Policy 9
Khartoum Running Short On Friends.9
Allegations by both Libya and South Sudan that Sudan is supporting rebel groups active on their soil have the potential to further
undermine Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir's already low stock with the West, but also, in the case of South Sudan, with China.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook. 11
SWOT Analysis.. 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
South Sudan Monetary Policy . 12
Price Of Insecurity To Rise.12
The impact of widespread insecurity in South Sudan in terms of the supply of basic goods such as food and fuel will become more
keenly felt over the coming months. With oil revenues dwindling, the availability of hard currency will become increasingly scarce, and
import costs will rise.
TABLE: South Sudan - Monetary Policy..12
Sudan Economic Activity 13
Growth Conditions To Remain Highly Challenging.13
The Sudanese economy will continue to operate well below potential in 2015 on account of restrained government spending, an
unappealing investment climate and both domestic and regional insecurity. Real GDP growth in 2015 will be 3.9%.
TABLE: sudan - Economic Activity..13
Sudan Investment Climate. 15
Political Uncertainty To Dent Investment Prospects..15
Sudan's uncertain and fragile political backdrop will continue to make it one of the least attractive places in the region to do business
over the next few years. While long-time investment partners, notably from China and the Middle East, will continue to operate in the
country, sentiment among Western companies is likely to remain tepid.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast. 17
The South Sudanese Economy To 2023. 17
Vast Potential, Significant Challenges17
The South Sudanese economy is among the most underdeveloped in all of Sub-Saharan Africa and has significant potential due to its
huge oil reserves, expanding population, large amount of arable land and proposed integration with East African nations. However, it
faces serious challenges in order to fulfil this potential, including security concerns with its neighbour to the north and among rival ethnic
groups, a gaping infrastructure deficit, and a lack of human or physical capital.
TABLE: South Sudan - Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts.17
The Sudanese Economy To 2023 19
Secession Poses Key Risk For Long-Term Growth.19
There is strong economic growth potential in the non-oil sector, but the uncertainties related to the secession of South Sudan generate
risks for many variables, particularly the fiscal accounts. We see Sudan's economy (excluding South Sudan) expanding by an annual
average 4.0-5.0% over 2015-2023.
TABLE: Sudan - Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts19
Chapter 4: Operational Risk. 21
Operational Risk Index. 21
Operational Risk 22
TABLE: Operational Risk..22
Transport Network 23
TABLE: Tra nsport Networ k..24
Economic Openness.. 26
TABLE: Economic Openness..27
TABLE: Top 5 Trade Part ners - Product Exports (2012), USDmn..28
TABLE: Product Imports (USDbn).29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions.. 31
Global Outlook 31
Big Emerging Market Revisions.31
Table: Global Assumptions.31
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %..32
Table : Emergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %.33

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