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  4. > The 5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and technology developments

Participants in the 5G market need to focus on the business case and models for implementing and monetising 5G technologies, not just the technology evolution/revolution.
Wireless networksThe high expectations for 5G (for example, 1ms latency, 1000 times more capacity than 4G, 1Gbps, more than 350km-per-hour mobility) can easily obscure real business requirements and opportunities in the mobile industry. Operators need to be realistic about demand in their markets, their 4G investment plans and service opportunities. Regulation will be needed regarding the use of higher-frequency spectrum (for example, in the 6–30GHz bands) some of which may be lightly licensed, or managed with shared access.

This Report provides:
analysis of the potential impacts of 5G standards on the industry
an overview of the implications for regulators, mobile network operators (MNOs) and technology companies, such as network and device manufacturers
an examination of the major drivers and use cases for 5G
detailed case studies of 5G initiatives worldwide
analysis of some of the technologies that we expect to be deployed.

COMPANY COVERAGE

The following companies and organisations are mentioned in this Report.
5G Forum
5G PPP
Alcatel-Lucent
ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc
Cisco Systems
Ericsson
Etisalat
Huawei Technologies
IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group
NGMN
Nokia Networks
NTT Docomo
Samsung
The Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China's 863 Program
ZTE

Table Of Contents

The 5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and technology developments

Table of contents


6.Executive summary and key implications


7.Executive summary


8.Key implications for mobile network operators (MNOs)


9.Key implications for regulators


10.Key implications for technology companies


11.The impact of 5G on the telecoms industry


12.5G could be the most complex standardisation exercise that the telecoms industry has experienced


13.Some 5G spectrum options could enable hyper-dense networks and deliver gigabit-speed wireless data services


14.5G spectrum access is likely to become more diverse and more dynamic, which could lead to security and performance challenges


15.The development of new 5G radio access technologies would hinder backward compatibility


16.5G could bridge the divide between fixed and mobile network services


17.5G Randamp;D is underway - established players are forming partnerships that may signal a new value chain


18.The vision for 5G and the status of standardisation programmes


19.Key to the 5G vision is that networks must be higher performing, and more virtualised and service-driven than today's networks


20.The top-four drivers for 5G are the same as those for 4G: growth in mobile and fixed data traffic, M2M device connections and smartphone take-up


21.The use cases for 5G are becoming increasingly understood, but basic questions are still being asked about what should be in the standard


22.Standardisation bodies and industry alliance associations have begun their 5G initiatives


23.ITU's Working Party 5 is co-ordinating the 5G standards effort, but major deliverables will not appear until mid-2015


24.Early 5G specifications are expected to be introduced in 2015 in 3GPP Release 14, followed by further releases


25.5G development efforts worldwide


26.Multiple stakeholders are influencing 5G development, including MNOs, governments, equipment vendors and research institutions


27.Asia-Pacific and the European Union are leading efforts to define and develop 5G, but input from the Americas and Australia is missing


28.The IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group and MOST's 863 Program are working together to propel China's leadership in 5G development


29.South Korea's 5G Forum aims to commercialise 5G by 2020 and offer 1Gbps per user anytime anywhere


30.Japan organises its 5G development activities through ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc


31.METIS 2020 intends to ensure that the EU leads the development of 5G as it works to build worldwide consensus


32.5G PPP in Horizon 2020 is a 50:50 public-private partnership project that aims to position the EU at the forefront of 5G development


33.UK-based 5GIC is the world's first dedicated 5G centre, and aims to research and develop efficient 5G solutions


34.Proposed key technologies


35.The 5G vision will drive the need for a new radio access technology and possibly non-backward-compatible changes


36.Massive MIMO systems could help operators achieve the capacity, throughput and efficiency targets required for 5G networks


37.Information-centric networking can change how we think about mobile networking and vastly simplify the next-generation core


38.Macro-assisted small cells could help networks address density challenges without increasing signalling loads


39.Mesh 5G access networks could change how local data is handled by the wireless network and increase network scalability


40.SCMA is a new waveform and signalling technology to increase throughput and number of simultaneous users supported in the RAN


41.Dynamic TDD framing could achieve the 1ms latency goal while boosting throughput and network efficiency


42.5G radio development may create connections to deeper core networkandnbsp; and cloud functions, driving high data rates and improved performance


43.UF-OFDM improves spectrum utilisation and efficiency for short-burst communications


44.About the authors and Analysys Mason


45.About the authors


46.About Analysys Mason


47.Research from Analysys Mason


48.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures


Figure 1: andnbsp; Summary of network equipment vendors, mobile operators and industry bodies mentioned in this report


Figure 2: andnbsp; 5G spectrum band options


Figure 3: andnbsp; Three regulatory methods of managing spectrum


Figure 4: andnbsp; The potential evolution of the mobile value chain following the launch of 5G


Figure 5: andnbsp; Key drivers and requirements for 5G


Figure 6: andnbsp; Major market trends driving the need for 5G networks


Figure 7: andnbsp; 5G use case scenarios and potential services


Figure 8: andnbsp; Selected 5G standards bodies and industry associations


Figure 9: andnbsp; Timeline for the development of mobile technology standards, including tentative dates for 5G


Figure 10: andnbsp; 5G development stakeholders


Figure 11: andnbsp; 5G development initiatives by country and region


Figure 12: andnbsp; 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group


Figure 13: andnbsp; 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by the 5G Forum


Figure 14: andnbsp; 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc


Figure 15: andnbsp; 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by METIS 2020


Figure 16: andnbsp; 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by 5G PPP


Figure 17: andnbsp; 5GIC's management structure


Figure 18: andnbsp; Proposed solutions to 5G radio access technology challenges


Figure 19: andnbsp; Potential signal waveforms for a new radio access technology


Figure 20: andnbsp; Potential features and benefits of massive MIMO technology, and how they relate to 5G requirements


Figure 21: andnbsp; Cisco's information-centric networking model


Figure 22: andnbsp; Potential features and benefits of the macro-assisted small cell concept


Figure 23: andnbsp; Mesh RAN architecture proposal for 5G


Figure 24: andnbsp; Sparse code multiple access (SCMA)


Figure 25: andnbsp; Dynamic TDD framing proposed for sub-1ms interface


Figure 26: andnbsp; Ericsson's 5G architecture vision


Figure 27: andnbsp; A comparison of out-of-band power levels of OFDM and filtered waveforms

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