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Ethiopia Infrastructure Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 38 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:

We continue to forecast Ethiopia’s construction industry to be the growth outperformer in Sub- Saharan Africa between 2017 and 2025 as the government directs key expenditure towards infrastructure development to improve the overall ease of doing business and support its burgeoning manufacturing sector. Foreign investment will remain crucial to the expansion of the sector as liquidity drives up in the banking sector and the domestic labour force remains largely unskilled.

Forecast & Industry Developments



- We are maintaining our forecast for Ethiopia’s construction industry, projected to record 10.5% real growth in 2017 and expand at an annual average of 10.8% over our forecast period up to 2025. While social unrest across the country has the potential to slow momentum into the project pipeline, we have not seen any sign of financing support for the market slowing - stemming primarily from China - and note the government is taking measures to curb demonstrations.

- Ethiopia is now in the second phase of medium-term strategic framework, the Growth & Transformation Plan II, which like the first phase will focus on improving infrastructure and attracting the investment to do so. We forecast nominal industry value to rise from an estimated USD7.2bn in 2016 to USD21.7bn in 2025, cementing its status as the largest construction market in East Africa. Risk/Reward Indices

- Ethiopia remains in seventh place out of 18 markets in Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index for Sub-Saharan Africa this quarter and above the regional average, though its overall score has slipped to 41.1 from 41.6.

Table Of Contents

Ethiopia Infrastructure Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Five-Year Forecast Scenario (Ethiopia 2017-2021) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Ethiopia 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 9
Table: Construction Industry Data (Ethiopia 2016-2025) 9
Table: Major Renewables Projects By Size (MW) 20
Industry Risk Reward Index 22
Ethiopia Industry Risk/Reward Index 22
SSA Infrastructure RRI: Macroeconomic And Political Headwinds Heighten Risks 24
Table: SSA RRI 29
Methodology 31
Industry Forecast Methodology 31
Sector-Specific Methodology 32
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 36
Sector-Specific Methodology 37
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 37
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 38

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