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  5. > Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
Despite the cancelation of the Hoima refinery from our forecast period, we have not yet altered our forecast for crude output, which we still expect from 2020. This is largely leveraged on the April 2016 decision to proceed with the Uganda-Tanzania oil pipeline route, instead of the originally planned Uganda- Hoima (Kenya) pipeline route. Nevertheless, we highlight risks to our crude oil production timeline still lies to the downside, given the risks to infrastructure projects which remain.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts


- With reserves of 2.5bn barrels of crude, Uganda has Sub-Saharan Africa's fourth-largest crude reserves, behind Nigeria, Angola and South Sudan. There is limited short-term upside risk to reserves: current exploration and appraisal campaigns have reached an end and new exploration will be delayed until more concrete progress is made towards developing existing discoveries. Limited interest in the ongoing licensing round will delay short to medium term new exploration.

- In August 2016, Uganda highlighted it selected three Nigerian companies and one Australian company for the licensing round, inviting them to negotiate for production sharing agreements (PSAs).

- After years of delays, Uganda finally granted five production licenses to Tullow Oil and three to Total, enabling the companies to move towards final investment decisions on the project and toward oil production. This is positive news after years of uncertainty.

Table Of Contents

Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Upstream Project Database 15
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 22
Refining 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 25
Refined Fuels Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2020-2025) 28
Gas Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019) 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2020-2025) 30
Trade - Oil 31
Crude Oil Trade 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025) 34
Refined Fuels Trade 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 39
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 39
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 41
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 41
Uganda Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream Index 43
Downstream Index 43
Market Overview 45
Uganda Energy Market Overview 45
Regulatory Structure 45
Political Regime 46
Fiscal Regime 48
Table: Uganda Fiscal Regime 48
Licensing Regime 48
Table: Uganda Licensing Regime 48
Licensing Rounds 48
Table: Current Licences 49
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Uganda Refinery 51
Oil Storage Facilities 51
Table: Uganda Main Oil Storage Facilities 51
Oil Pipeline 51
Table: Uganda Oil Pipelines 51
Company Profile 53
Tullow Oil 53
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uganda 54
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 55
Regional Overview 56
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 56
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 65
Glossary 66
Table: Glossary Of Terms 66
Methodology 68
Industry Forecast Methodology 68
Source 70
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 70
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 72
Table: Weighting 73

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