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EpiCast Report: Celiac Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

Celiac disease is an autoimmune disease that occurs in individuals who consume gluten-containing foods but are intolerant to gluten, a protein found in many grains, such as wheat, rye, and barley. In celiac disease, the body’s immune system attacks and destroys the villi of the small intestine and thus interferes with nutrient absorption. Celiac disease can be difficult to diagnose because the symptoms vary between individuals and are non-specific, such as abdominal bloating and pain, diarrhea, constipation, and weight loss. Short-term malicious effects of untreated celiac disease include malnutrition, vitamin and mineral deficiency, and anemia, whereas long-term effects include bone diseases, cancers, and liver diseases. Celiac disease can arise in individuals of all ages and current epidemiological studies estimate that celiac disease affects around 1% of the population in western countries, with a range of between 0.3-2.7%.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of total prevalent cases of celiac disease in the 6MM is expected to grow to 8.08 million cases in 2023 at a rate of 3.92% per year during the forecast period. The number of diagnosed prevalent cases in the 6MM is expected to increase by 4.61% over the next decade to 1.11 million cases in 2023.

GlobalData’s forecast and analysis is based on a thorough literature review and from primary research results. GlobalData epidemiologists carefully reviewed and selected secondary research studies and validated the findings with primary research. GlobalData epidemiologists maintained a consistent case-finding definition and forecasting methodology for celiac disease throughout the 6MM, thus allowing for a meaningful comparison of the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of celiac disease in these markets. The total prevalent cases of celiac disease are also segmented by sex, thus providing a detailed analysis of the patient population characteristic of celiac disease. Furthermore, GlobalData epidemiologists also provided a realistic trend forecast for the total and diagnosed prevalence of celiac disease based on insights gained through the analysis of historical data.

Scope

- The celiac disease EpiCast Report provide an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for celiac disease in the six major markets (6MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK). In addition, the report also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of celiac disease segmented by sex and age (0-19 years, 20-29 years, 30-39 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years, and =70 years), and a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of celiac disease in the 6MM.
- The celiac disease epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 6MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global celiac disease market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global celiac disease market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for celiac disease therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Celiac Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 7
2.1 Catalyst 7
2.2 Related Reports 7
2.3 Upcoming Reports 8
3 Epidemiology 9
3.1 Disease Background 9
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 9
3.3 Global Trends 12
3.3.1 US 15
3.3.2 5EU 15
3.4 Forecast Methodology 16
3.4.1 Sources Used 17
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 20
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods - Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease 22
3.4.4 Forecast Assumptions - Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease 25
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Celiac Disease (2013-2023) 26
3.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease 26
3.5.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease 28
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease 29
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of Celiac Disease 31
3.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease 32
3.6 Discussion 34
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 34
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 35
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 36
4 Appendix 37
4.1 Bibliography 37
4.2 About the Authors 41
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 41
4.2.2 Reviewers 41
4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 42
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 43
4.3 About GlobalData 43
4.4 About EpiCast 44
4.5 Disclaimer 44

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors for Celiac Disease 11
Table 2: Studies Reporting Temporal Trends for Celiac Disease and Calculated Rate of Change 14
Table 3: 6MM, Sources of Prevalence and Diagnosis Rates of Celiac Disease 17
Table 4: 6MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Forecast for Celiac Disease 21
Table 5: 6MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Select Years 2013-2023 27
Table 6: 6MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2013 28
Table 7: 6MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease, All Ages, N (Row %), 2013 30
Table 8: 6MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease, Both Sexes, All Ages, Select Years 2013-2023 33

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: 6MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2013-2023 27
Figure 2: 6MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2013 29
Figure 3: 6MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease, All Ages, 2013 31
Figure 4: 6MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence (%) of Celiac Disease, All Ages, by Sex, 2013 32
Figure 5: 6MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Celiac Disease, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2013-2023 33

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