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Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
Tanzania continues to be an attractive prospect for investment, as a result of its gas-rich offshore resources. A 'lower-for-longer' oil price scenario and sustained downward pressure on LNG prices pose risks to FID on Tanzania's LNG export project. Continued fiscal and regulatory uncertainties are also a threat and could push first exports beyond our 10-year forecast period. Without the project, it is unlikely that a significant portion of the country's offshore assets will be developed in the near or medium term. Consumption growth looks strong for both refined fuels and gas, albeit from a comparatively low base. Gas consumption will be met domestically, but a lack of refining capacity will see an increased reliance on imported fuels.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts


- Royal Dutch Shell announced a USD100mn two-well offshore drilling campaign targeting prospects on Blocks 1 and 4. Drilling is scheduled to begin in Q416 and the two wells, which will both target prospects with estimated recoverable resources above 30bcm, have been given a roughly 40 percent chance of success.

- Tanzania has ordered work on the planned LNG terminal to be accelerated but regulatory uncertainty persists amid reports that lengthy talks with investors may be necessary before a FID can be reached. The need for further survey work underlines the risk the project, already behind schedule, will fail to come online in 2022 as planned. Despite a high-level push from Tanzania's presidency, as of the time of writing, FID in 2016 looks increasingly unlikely and there has been no official indication when a decision may be made.

Table Of Contents

Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Tanzania Major Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Gas 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2014-2019) 18
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2020-2025) 18
Refining 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 19
Refined Fuels Consumption 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Tanzania 2020-2025) 22
Gas Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019) 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2020-2025) 26
Trade - Oil 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025) 33
Industry Risk Reward Index 34
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 34
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 36
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 36
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 38
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 38
Tanzania - Risk/Reward Index 40
Upstream Index 40
Downstream Index 40
Market Overview 41
Tanzania Energy Market Overview 41
Regulatory Structure 41
Fiscal Regime 42
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Fiscal Terms 42
Licensing Regime 43
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Contract Terms 43
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 43
Oil and Gas Pipelines 43
Table: Tanzania - Main Oil and Gas Pipelines 43
Oil Storage Facilities 44
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Storage Facilities 44
Oil Trade Facilities 44
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Terminals 44
LNG Terminals 44
Table: Tanzania Main LNG Terminals 44
Competitive Landscape 45
Company Profile 47
Statoil 47
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place 48
ExxonMobil 49
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place 51
Shell 52
Table: Shell (BG Group) Assets in Tanzania 54
Regional Overview 55
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 55
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 64
Glossary 65
Table: Glossary Of Terms 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Source 69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 71
Table: Weighting 72

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