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Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts

  • November 2014
  • -
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
  • -
  • 164 pages

Slow sector revenue growth bolstered by Telstra and 2nd tier operators
BuddeComm estimates that the overall telecoms services revenue will have grown only marginally in 2014, reaching about $42.9 billion. This will be largely due to the effects of continuing depressed revenue from Vodafone and Optus, offset by a resurgent Telstra and by a host of 2nd tier players which reported strong revenue growth in FY2014.

These players in general anticipate reporting further revenue gains for FY2015. Competition among them, compounded by consumer expectations, continue to place pressure on pricing into 2015, particularly in the mobile voice and mobile data segments. Overall revenue growth into 2016 is expected to remain stable at about 1-1.5% annually.
Telstra retains its dominance in the Australian telecom market, enjoying a 61% market share of revenue. Its strong position has been aided by the poor strategic direction taken by Optus and Vodafone during the last two to three years, as well as by its own astute decisions undertaken recently. The sale of the company’s interests in some international businesses secured considerable profits which have enabled it to invest in new enterprises showcasing its growing interest in areas such as OTT services and healthcare.

Broadband continues to prosper as customers switch to mobile solutions
Australia’s broadband market has slowed since mid-2000s, reflecting higher penetration among consumers. The rapid growth in the number of wireless mobile broadband subscribers has maintained overall growth in the market in recent years, driven by smartphones and tablets. In 2014 the number of broadband subscribers is expected to have grown by about 2-3%, year-on-year. A key concern moving forward is how far operators should invest in DSLAM infrastructure. With the multi-technology mix for the NBN emphasising a combination of FttN and HFC architecture, the transition from DSL to fibre-based infrastructure will be on a far smaller scale than was envisaged only a year ago.

There has also been resurgent interest in WiFi, with Telstra in mid-2014 announcing plans to invest more than $100 million to build a network of some two million hotspots across the nation within five years. This is complemented by a growing number of municipal-backed WiFi zones.
In 2014 the residential broadband market is expected to be worth about $19.2 billion, a slight increase on 2013. With almost 90% of Australian households having home internet access by the tail-end of 2014, the sector is now more focussed on multiple broadband connections via both wired and wireless service providers.

The 2nd tier market
Developments in this market have been dominated by industry consolidation, a process likely to continue over coming years. Size and reach have proven to be crucial for operators to flourish in a market dominated by only a few players, and with progress with the NBN set to be ramped up following a management overhaul.
Mergers, acquisitions and sales have resulted in significant changes in revenue for some players. AAPT, acquired from Telecom New Zealand by TPG in February 2014, shows indications that declining revenue over the last few years will provide positive growth into 2015. In general terms, most operators excepting AAPT performed well in FY2014, and look set to report strong financial gains into FY2015 as they take advantage of their assets and skill in providing cloud and data centre services to the corporate and government sectors.

Mobile market
Overall mobile services revenue growth by MNOs over the last few years has slowed to about 1%, though stronger growth from Telstra, at about 5% in FY2014, has offset declines from both Optus and Vodafone. Stagnant revenue from Optus should be expected from these last two operators into 2015, though towards the end of 2014 Vodafone pledged its determination to fight back and improve its market share through customer acquisitions. Significant investment in mobile networks, despite opting not to secure spectrum in the 700MHz band at auction, should provide customers with greater confidence in the company’s network capabilities.

The number of mobile subscribers continues to grow steadily, and by late 2014 mobile penetration had approached 132%. While subscriber growth is likely to continue in the next few years, this will slow in line with higher penetration, being about 2% for 2014 and into 2015.

Telstra remains the market leader with more than 16 million subscribers, while Optus has around 9.4 million and Vodafone now has fewer than five million, compared to about 7.6 million in 2010, before network failures caused customers to churn to other providers.

The release of spectrum for LTE use in early 2015 will go far to enabling Telstra and Optus to deliver their promised 98% population coverage with LTE by the end of 2016. Vodafone has concentrated on refarming its 800MHz concessions, lessening its spectrum disadvantage. Increases in capital expenditure by these MNOs will be required in coming years before notably gains in revenue can be realised.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year

Table Of Contents

Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts
1. Telecoms Market Late 2014
1.1 Data retention policy
1.1.1 More risks than gains?
1.1.2 What is the aim of the proposed legislation?
1.1.3 The internet tax
1.1.4 Security risk could be higher than its gain
1.1.5 Parochial thinking doesn't solve the problem
1.2 Telecoms where will the money come from?
1.3 Latest NBN Developments- November 2014
1.3.1 Biggest threat to NBN is political panic
1.3.2 FttP Rest of the world is wrong but Australia is right?
1.3.3 If people don't need NBN speeds, what about their computers?
1.3.4 Let's get on with the NBN
1.4 Where are the economic policies and strategies
1.4.1 The world is passing Australia by
1.4.2 Government misses out on developing a smart economy
1.4.3 Lack of vision politicians absorbed by costs of ageing economic models
1.4.4 Where is the economic plan for the post-manufacturing era?
1.5 Competition issues
1.5.1 Can the competition take on Telstra?
1.5.2 Where does all this leave the competition?
1.5.3 So what is the future for the telcos?
1.5.4 Competition in the telecoms industry is dwindling
1.6 Digital Productivity Key to Transformation of Australian Economy
1.6.1 Smart Societies based on Artificial Intelligence
1.6.2 Sector and industry transformation
1.6.3 Has the internet reached the too big to fail' stage?
1.6.4 E-banking and M-banking
1.6.5 Advertising and Marketing in the Digital Age
1.6.6 Business Market Trends and Statistics
1.6.7 Online Retailing
1.6.8 E-Health
1.6.9 E-Education
1.6.10 E-Government
1.7 White Paper calls for National Telehealth Strategy
1.8 E-education developments need to move faster
1.9 Cloud services now mainstream
1.10 Tablets and other smart devices clear winners in a fragmenting entertainment market
1.11 The unstoppable move towards smart cities
1.11.1 Customer-driven smart cities
1.11.2 Economy-driven smart cities
1.11.3 Society-driven smart cities
1.11.4 Greenfields Opportunities
1.11.5 Brownfields Challenges
1.12 Smart Energy Australian is right up with the international leaders
2. Market and Industry Statistics
2.1 Statistical Overview of the Telecoms Market By Provider
2.1.1 Total telecommunications services market
2.1.2 Telstra
2.1.3 Optus
2.1.4 Vodafone Hutchison Australia
2.1.5 Capital expenditure
2.2 Statistical Overview of the Telecoms Market By Service
2.2.1 Total telco market by major service
2.2.2 Wholesale market
2.2.3 Mobile market
2.2.4 Broadband market
2.3 2nd tier telcos - Revenue Statistics
2.3.1 Service revenues and market shares
3. National Broadband Network - Surveys, Statistics and Forecasts
3.1 Market Surveys
3.1.1 Deloitte's Media Consumer Survey - 2014
3.1.2 Privatisation of NBN is not popular
3.1.3 FTTN modelling results
3.1.4 NBN speeds over 25Mbps
3.1.5 Broadband benefits for households
3.1.6 Poll prefers FttP plan above FttN plan
3.1.7 Support for fast broadband via an NBN
3.1.8 Customers prepared to pay for higher speeds
3.1.9 Research into the NBN first release sites
3.1.10 Stats and demographics for the 2012-2015 NBN footprint
3.2 Industry transformation
3.2.1 Introduction
3.2.2 Fixed infrastructure market
3.2.3 Wholesale market
3.2.4 The retail market
3.3 The digital economy - trans-sector market
3.3.1 Forecasts 2015; 2020
3.3.2 The digital media market
3.4 Business market survey
3.4.1 NBN Business Readiness Survey - 2013
3.4.2 NBN impact on industry output by 2020
3.4.3 Summary of survey findings
3.5 Business models and mergers and acquisitions (MandA)
3.5.1 Fixed market scenarios
3.5.2 Mobile market scenarios
4. Broadband Market
4.1 DSL Market
4.1.1 Brief overview of the NBN
4.1.2 Regulatory environment analysis
4.1.3 DSL infrastructure
4.1.4 Brief overview of broadband providers market
4.2 Business Market
4.2.1 Market trends
4.2.2 Business market surveys
4.2.3 Business customer expenditure on telecoms
4.3 Residential Market
4.3.1 Statistical overview residential market total telecoms
4.3.2 Internet household statistics
4.3.3 Trends in the residential market
4.3.4 Household use of technology
4.3.5 Other residential market surveys
5. Mobile Communications Market
5.1 Revenue Overview
5.1.1 Statistical sources
5.1.2 Total mobile services revenue and forecasts
5.1.3 Operator revenue statistics overview
5.1.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
5.2 Subscriber Statistics
5.2.1 Mobile subscriber statistics
5.3 Mobile Broadband Market
5.3.1 Market overview and analysis
5.3.2 Mobile broadband market statistics
5.3.3 Forecasts and other developments
5.3.4 Australia - mobile media premium rate SMS (PSMS) portals and apps
Table 1 Historic - Total telecoms revenues by major providers 2000 - 2004
Table 2 Total telecoms revenues by major providers 2005 - 2014
Table 3 Total telecoms service market share by major providers 2003 - 2014
Table 4 Telstra Group total revenue and annual change 2000 - 2014
Table 5 Telstra Group revenue by segment 2009 - 2014
Table 6 Telstra fixed-line revenue by service 2009 - 2014
Table 7 Telstra mobile revenue by service 2009 - 2014
Table 8 Telstra fixed broadband revenue by service 2011 - 2013
Table 9 Telstra fixed-line broadband revenue by service 2009 - 2014
Table 10 Telstra IP and data access revenue by service 2009 - 2014
Table 11 Telstra offshore controlled entities revenue 2009 - 2014
Table 12 Optus overall operating revenue summary and annual change 2000 - 2014
Table 13 Optus key financial indicators 2009 - 2014
Table 14 Optus operating revenue by operating division 2011 - 2012
Table 15 Optus revenue by service (S$) 2009 2014
Table 16 Operational EBITDA by operating division 2008 - 2014
Table 17 Optus revenue by major and minor service category 2011 - 2013
Table 18 Vodafone Australia revenue 2009 - 2014
Table 19 HTA key metrics financial overview 2009 - 2014
Table 20 Vodafone subscribers by type 2009 2014
Table 21 Vodafone subscribers by type 2009 2014
Table 22 Total capital expenditure by major network provider 2009 - 2014
Table 23 Historic - Total telecoms market retail revenue by service 2001 - 2004
Table 24 Total telecoms market retail revenue by service 2005 - 2015
Table 25 Total telecoms market annual retail growth by service 2001 - 2015
Table 26 historic - Total telecoms market retail market share by service 2000 - 2004
Table 27 Total telecoms market retail market share by service 2005 - 2015
Table 28 Historic - Wholesale market revenues by major supplier 2000 - 2004
Table 29 Wholesale market revenues by major supplier 2005 - 2014
Table 30 Wholesale market shares by major supplier 2000 - 2014
Table 31 Historic - Annual change in wholesale market revenues by major supplier 2000 - 2004
Table 32 Annual change in wholesale market revenues by major supplier 2005 - 2014
Table 33 Historic - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change 2000 - 2004
Table 34 Total mobile services market revenue and annual change 2005 - 2014
Table 35 Historic - Mobile market revenue per major operator 1993 - 2004
Table 36 Mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2014
Table 37 Historic - Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2004
Table 38 Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2014
Table 39 Proportion of mobile service revenue from voice and data 2007 - 2014
Table 40 Blended ARPU per month per major operator 2000 - 2014
Table 41 Blended ARPU per month per major operator annual change 2004 - 2014
Table 42 Broadband revenues by major provider 2009 - 2014
Table 43 Annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider 2010 - 2014
Table 44 Market share of broadband access revenues by major provider 2004 - 2014
Table 45 Second-tier telcos revenue by provider 2010 - 2014
Table 46 Second-tier telcos revenue by major provider annual change 2010 - 2014
Table 47 Second-tier telcos revenue by major provider relative market shares 2010 - 2014
Table 48 Second-tier telcos revenue by provider (historic) 2004 - 2007
Table 49 Second-tier telcos revenue by major provider (historic) relative market shares 2004 - 2007
Table 50 Benefits of broadband for households a national framework
Table 51 Scenarios summary of benefits in 2020
Table 52 Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)
Table 53 Wholesale DSL pricing, per month per user 2013 2014
Table 54 Number of infrastructure providers by number of ADSL-enabled exchanges 2007 - 2008; 2010 - 2011
Table 55 Number of ADSL broadband subscribers 2008 2013
Table 56 DSL subscribers and availability by state/territory 2013
Table 57 DSL premises affected by distance from exchange 2013
Table 58 Number of DSLAMs by major providers 2009 - 2012
Table 59 Total number of DSLAMs 2006 - 2013
Table 60 Number of ADSL and ADSL2+-enabled exchanges 2013
Table 61 Top Hat enabled exchanges 2011 - 2013
Table 62 Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider 2009 - 2013
Table 63 Total business and residential broadband subscribers 2006 - 2014
Table 64 Telstra broadband subscribers by sector 2007 2013
Table 65 Business, government and household internet subscribers 2009 - 2013
Table 66 Business broadband connections, by platform Jun 2012
Table 67 Business uptake of broadband by access type 2010 - 2013
Table 68 SME online trends websites versus social media 2010 - 2013
Table 69 Historic - SME computer equipment ownership trends 1999 - 2004
Table 70 SME computer equipment ownership trends 2005 - 2014
Table 71 Computer hardware expenditure SMEs and medium businesses 2001 - 2013
Table 72 Business trends in internet connections 1998 - 2014
Table 73 SMEs internet access methods, by technology 2010 - 2014
Table 74 Top uses of the internet by SMEs 2010 - 2014
Table 75 Meeting customer expectations using internet applications 2011 - 2013; 2018
Table 76 Expectations of customer e-payments 2011 - 2012; 2015
Table 77 Estimated telco product mix of business customer spend 2014
Table 78 Estimated business and government market spending 2013
Table 79 Revenue mix total spend of telecoms SME market 2014
Table 80 Revenue mix total spend of telecoms residential market 2013
Table 81 Service providers' market share and revenue in the residential market 2013
Table 82 Historic - Total households versus internet enabled households 1999 - 2004
Table 83 Total households versus internet enabled households 2005 - 2014
Table 84 Broadband component of internet enabled households 2005 - 2015
Table 85 Proportion of internet households with children 2005 - 2009; 2010 - 2013
Table 86 Internet access households with children 2005 - 2009; 2010 - 2013
Table 87 Time spent online, by age June 2012
Table 88 Frequency of internet use, by internet population June 2012
Table 89 Fixed-line broadband data usage by users 2008 - 2013
Table 90 Fixed-line broadband data usage by users 2012 - 2013
Table 91 Historic - Dial-up and broadband internet subscribers 2003 - 2004
Table 92 Dial-up and broadband internet subscribers 2005 - 2013
Table 93 Computerisation in the home 2013
Table 94 Proportion of the population using social networking sites 2011 - 2013
Table 95 Social network site users 2012 - 2013
Table 96 Top 5 online applications - 2013
Table 97 Use of internet applications - 2013
Table 98 Total new complaints to the TIO 2006 - 2013
Table 99 Number of complaints to the TIO by levels 2009 - 2013
Table 100 Historic - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change 1993 - 2004
Table 101 Total mobile services market revenue and annual change 2005 - 2014
Table 102 Telstra mobile services revenue 2009 - 2014
Table 103 Vodafone Australia revenue 2009 - 2013
Table 104 Optus key financial indicators 2009 - 2014
Table 105 Optus mobile service revenue 2013 2014
Table 106 Historic - Mobile market revenue per major operator 1993 - 2004
Table 107 Mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2014
Table 108 Historic - Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2004
Table 109 Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2014
Table 110 Annual change of mobile market share per major operator 2000 - 2014
Table 111 Estimated mobile service revenue by service, proportion of total 2007 - 2014
Table 112 Total mobile voice revenue per major operator 2007 - 2014
Table 113 Mobile voice revenue as a proportion of total mobile services revenue 2007 - 2015
Table 114 Mobile data revenue per major operator 2007 - 2014
Table 115 Annual change in data revenue per major operator as a proportion of total mobile services revenue 2008 - 2012
Table 116 Blended monthly ARPU by MNO 2000 - 2014
Table 117 Annual change in blended monthly ARPU by MNO 2004 - 2014
Table 118 Postpaid ARPU per month Telstra, Optus and Vodafone 2004 - 2014
Table 119 Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change 2000 - 2014
Table 120 Historic - Mobile subscribers by carrier 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2004
Table 121 Mobile subscribers by carrier 2005 - 2014
Table 122 Historic - Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier 1995; 1997; 2000 - 2004
Table 123 Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier 2005 - 2014
Table 124 Historic - Mobile subscriber market share by carrier 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2004
Table 125 Mobile subscriber market share by carrier 2010 - 2014
Table 126 3G mobile subscribers by carrier 2003 - 2013
Table 127 Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier 2007 - 2013
Table 128 Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier 2006 - 2013
Table 129 2G mobile subscribers by carrier 2006 - 2013
Table 130 Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier 2006 - 2013
Table 131 Prepaid subscribers by mobile network operator 2008 - 2014
Table 132 Number of mobile phone services in operation - prepaid and postpaid 2006 - 2014
Table 133 Wholesale subscribers Telstra versus Optus 2006 - 2013
Table 134 Wireless broadband subscribers by access type 2009 - 2014
Table 135 Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator 2007 - 2013
Table 136 Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes 2007 - 2013; 2015
Table 137 Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change 2007 - 2015
Table 138 Mobile broadband monthly ARPU 2007 - 2015
Table 139 Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator 2008 - 2013
Table 140 Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues 2008; 2013; 2018
Chart 1 Overview of total telecoms service revenue by major providers 2005 - 2014
Chart 2 Overview of market share of telecoms revenue by major operator 2013 - 2014
Chart 3 Overview of Vodafone Australia revenue 2009 - 2014
Chart 4 Overview of total telecoms market retail revenue by service 2005 - 2015
Chart 5 Overview of wholesale market revenues by major supplier 2005 - 2014
Chart 6 Overview of total mobile services market revenue and annual change 2005 - 2014
Chart 7 Overview of mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2014
Chart 8 Overview of annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2014
Chart 9 Overview of blended monthly ARPU by MNO 2005 - 2014
Chart 10 Overview of broadband access revenues by major provider 2009 - 2014
Chart 11 Overview of annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider 2010 - 2014
Chart 12 Overview of selected second-tier telcos revenue 2010 - 2014
Chart 13 Market share size of NBN trans-sector market 2020
Chart 14 NBN services revenue share estimates by market share 2015
Chart 15 NBN services revenue share estimates by market share 2020
Chart 16 Overview of number of DSLAMs by top six providers 2008 - 2012
Chart 17 Overview of total business and residential broadband subscribers 2006 - 2014
Chart 18 Business uptake of broadband by access type 2010 2013
Chart 19 Overview of ICT uptake issues by businesses 2009 - 2012
Chart 20 Overview of SME computer equipment ownership trends by type 2005 - 2014
Chart 21 Overview of SME versus medium-sized business computer expenditure 2005 - 2013
Chart 22 Overview of residential market revenue and market share by major provider 2013
Chart 23 Overview of households with internet access 2004 - 2014
Chart 24 Overview of the decline in dial-up subscriptions 2004 - 2013
Chart 25 Overview of new complaints to the TIO 2006 - 2013
Chart 26 Overview of consumer and SME complaints by level 2009 - 2013
Chart 27 Overview of total mobile services market revenue and annual change 2005 - 2014
Chart 28 Overview of Vodafone Australia revenue 2009 - 2013
Chart 29 Overview of mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2014
Chart 30 Overview of annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2014
Chart 31 Overview of mobile revenue share per major operator 2000 - 2014
Chart 32 Overview of mobile service revenue voice versus data 2007 - 2014
Chart 33 Overview of total mobile voice revenue per major operator 2007 - 2014
Chart 34 Overview of mobile voice revenue as a proportion of total mobile services revenue 2007 - 2014
Chart 35 Overview of total mobile data revenue per major operator 2007 - 2014
Chart 36 Overview of annual change in mobile data revenue per major operator 2008 - 2014
Chart 37 Overview of blended monthly ARPU by MNO 2005 - 2014
Chart 38 Overview of prepaid ARPU per month Telstra, Optus and Vodafone 2004 - 2014
Chart 39 Overview of mobile market subscribers versus population 2005 - 2014
Chart 40 Overview of mobile subscribers by carrier 2005 - 2014
Chart 41 Overview of annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier 2005 - 2014
Chart 42 Overview of mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator 2007 - 2013
Chart 43 Overview of estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in petabytes 2007 - 2013; 2015
Exhibit 1 Summary of scenarios considered in this report
Exhibit 2 - Unbundled Local Loop Bitstream
Exhibit 3 Overview of the TIO complaint handling process
Exhibit 4 Background information on the 3G race by the MNOs

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