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Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts

  • March 2017
  • -
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
  • -
  • 127 pages

Australia’s telco market grows slowly with mobile broadband driving growth
The overall telecoms services revenue reached over $42 billion in 2016, a growth of under 1% for the 12 months to June 2016. The overall market is predicted to grow at a stronger rate in 2017. The strongest growth is coming from the second tier providers, which grew at over 10% during that time period. The market incumbent Telstra still dominates the local telco landscape with well over 50% market share, however this market share is gradually declining. Prices for fixed-line and mobile voice services are being driven down by competition among operators, and by consumer reluctance to tolerate price increases, which engenders higher churn to other providers. Thus opportunities to drive revenue growth through higher consumer and business spend in the short term are limited to mobile data services.

Revenue for Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN, fixed-line voice and local access) services continue to decline for all telcos. This reflects changing consumer habits. On the one hand, operators are switching their legacy PSTN infrastructure to VoIP, while consumers are also making fewer fixed-line calls in preference to mobile calls and calls through platforms such as Skype. As the NBN progresses, the majority of voice traffic will be IP-based. Fixed-line broadband on the copper network will also decline gradually as fibre and fixed-wireless broadband services become more widely available, though the Coalition’s multi-technology NBN architecture, with its emphasis on VDSL with Fibre-to-the Node (FttN), will make greater use of copper than did Labour’s plan for a national Fibre-to-the-Premises(FttP) network.

While fixed-line telephony traffic and revenue is declining, the mobile broadband market is growing steadily. Though far outpaced by mobile data traffic, mobile data revenue is becoming a significant revenue stream for providers. While mobile voice remains the dominant source of revenue for Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), it will soon be overtaken by mobile data revenue. In time, much of the voice traffic will be data packet via technologies such as Voice over Long-term Evolution (VoLTE).

The release of spectrum for LTE mobile broadband use, as well as and increased uptake by consumers and businesses, is easing helping to offset the decline in revenue from fixed-line services, though as user uptake increases so will the amount of bandwidth consumed. This requires additional investment among operators in spectrum assets and in upgraded mobile infrastructure.

From 2017 Telstra and Optus are better placed to capitalise on spectrum assets, having been able to make use of their 700MHz concessions since a year prior and so further develop their LTE subscriber base. Vodafone remains under some strain though it has seen encouraging revenue growth in recent quarters, supported by a revival of its subscriber base following a long period of decline. This change of fortune is a reflection of optimism among the company’s management as well as a return of consumer confidence following network upgrades. By early 2017 the operator claimed to provide 96% population coverage with its LTE infrastructure, and had deployed VoLTE services across its LTE network. It also aimed to add more than 100 base stations to its LTE network during 2017, focussed on underserved areas.

Pressure on pricing will continue to place a strain on operator revenue into fiscal 2017, with revenue from mobile data services failing to offset the sharpening decline in revenue from voice services. This is being exacerbated by the popularity of OTT services which has led to a fall in SMS traffic and revenue. In addition OTT services are helping to reduce voice traffic volume, while with VoLTE technologies voice traffic is rendered as data.

The three LTE networks operated by Optus, Telstra and Vodafone have developed rapidly during the past two years as these players strive to provide an infrastructure capable of meetings customer demand for mobile broadband services. Telstra continues to be a global leader in mobile services, being a partner with Ericsson in developing 5G. The two companies have demonstrated 1Gb/s capabilities over a commercial LTE network using carrier aggregation technology, and will use the 2018 Commonwealth Games in Queensland to trial a range of technologies including a prototype 5G.

Australia’s broadband sector is making improved progress in its migration to a multi-technology NBN. This has left considerable room for further development in the DSL and cable sectors, both of which are benefiting from the deployment of new technologies. The DSL sector is showing resilience as operators make greater use of VDSL, while the company responsible for the national rollout, nbn (NBN Co) has trialled G.fast technology and expects to provide services based on this upgrade during 2017. HFC is also gaining a new lease of life, with nbn also preparing to trial DOCSIS3.1 technology with a view to commercialising services by mid-2017.

Key developments:

The overall telecoms services revenue reached over $42 billion in 2016.
The overall market is predicted to grow at a stronger rate in 2017.
Strongest market growth is coming from the second tier providers.
Telstra still dominates the local telco landscape with around 60% overall market share.
Telstra’s market share is however gradually declining.
Prices for fixed-line and mobile voice services are being driven down by competition among operators.


Companies mentioned in this report:

SingTel, VHA, Optus, Telstra, iiNet, TPG, Vocus, Macquarie Telecom

Table Of Contents

Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts
1. Industry analyses
1.1 Digital, sharing, interconnected infrastructure
1.1.1 Introduction
1.1.2 The fixed telecoms market
1.1.3 The fixed broadband market
1.1.4 The National Broadband Network
1.1.5 Data Centres
1.1.6 Data Analytics
1.1.7 IoT/M2M
1.1.8 Cyber Crime
1.2 The mobile market
1.2.1 Introduction
1.2.2 Market Broadband Market
1.2.3 Digital Media platforms
1.2.4 Mobile Advertising and Digital Marketing
1.2.5 Apps, Entertainment, Social Networks and Gaming
1.2.6 Mobile Media and Mobile Device Market
1.3 Video Streaming market
1.3.1 Broadcasting and Pay TV
1.3.2 Video Streaming
1.3.3 Mobile Video Streaming
1.3.4 Digital Radio
2. Statistical overview of the telecoms market
2.1 Statistical overview by provider
2.1.1 Revenue, growth and market share by major provider
2.1.2 Telstra
2.1.3 Optus
2.1.4 Company Analysis
2.1.5 Vodafone Hutchison Australia
2.1.6 Capital expenditure
2.1.7 2nd Tier Telcos
2.2 Statistical overview by service
2.2.1 Analysis
2.2.2 Revenue Statistics
3. Telecoms services wholesale and competitive access
3.1 Introduction of regulatory instruments
3.2 Regulatory instruments analysis
3.3 Final access determinations for fixed line telecommunications
3.4 Layer 2 bitstream on non-NBN Co networks
3.5 Difference between peering and interconnection
3.6 The thriving wholesale aggregation market
3.6.1 Inabox
4. Statistical overview of the broadband market
4.1 National Broadband Network statistics and surveys
4.1.1 The NBN wholesale market ACCC report May 2016
4.1.2 Market Surveys
4.1.3 The Digital Economy - Trans-Sector Market
4.1.4 Business Market Survey
4.2 FttN and VDSL
4.2.1 FttN in NBN's FY Results 2016
4.2.2 FttN vs FttH take-up
4.2.3 Analysis - High-speed broadband take-up is increasing
4.2.4 FttN overview 2014-2018
4.3 FttH statistical overview 2014-2018
4.4 DSL market statistics and analyses
4.4.1 Brief overview of the NBN
4.4.2 Regulatory environment analysis
4.4.3 DSL infrastructure
4.4.4 Brief overview of broadband providers market
4.5 Business market - statistics and analyses
4.5.1 Market trends
4.5.2 Business market surveys
4.5.3 Business customer expenditure on telecoms
4.6 Residential market - statistics and analyses
4.6.1 Statistical overview residential market total telecoms
4.6.2 Internet household statistics
4.6.3 Trends in the residential market
4.6.4 Household use of technology
4.6.5 Other residential market surveys
5. Statistical overview of the mobile market
5.1 Revenue overview and statistics
5.1.1 Statistical sources
5.1.2 Total mobile services revenue and forecasts
5.1.3 Operator revenue statistics overview
5.1.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
5.2 Subscriber statistics
5.2.1 Statistical sources
5.2.2 Mobile subscriber statistics
5.2.3 Mobile Usage Stats
5.3 Mobile Broadband statistics, LTE and 5G
5.3.1 Market overview and analysis
5.3.2 Mobile broadband market statistics
6. Video streaming trends, developments and statistics
6.1 Impact of SVOD on traditional TV
6.1.1 Overview
6.1.2 Catch-up TV
6.1.3 Opportunities for Broadcasters
6.2 SVOD Market Sizing and Subscribers
6.2.1 Overall Market
6.2.2 Subscribers and Pricing by Provider
6.2.3 Forecasts and Future Trends
7. Pay TV, Free-to-Air statistics and analysis
7.1 Overview
7.2 Subscriber statistics
7.3 Consumer penetration statistics
7.4 Usage Statistics
7.5 Revenue statistics
7.6 Advertising revenue
Table 1 Total Telecoms Revenue ($ billion) by Major Provider / Category 2014 - 2017
Table 2 Total Telecoms Revenue Annual Growth by Major Provider 2015 - 2017
Table 3 Total Telecoms Revenue Market Share by Major Provider / Category 2014 - 2017
Table 4 Historic - Total telecoms revenues by smaller operators, and total 2005 - 2013
Table 5 Historic - Total telecoms revenues by major providers 2000 - 2004
Table 6 Telstra Group total revenue 2005 - 2016
Table 7 Telstra Group Top Line Annual Financial Results 2011 - 2016
Table 8 Telstra Group Top Line Financial Results Annual Change 2011 - 2016
Table 9 Telstra Group - Revenue by Product Segment and Annual Change 2015 - 2016
Table 10 Overview of Optus overall operating revenue summary 2000 - 2016
Table 11 Optus Financial Result - Division 2014 - 2016
Table 12 Vodafone Australia revenue 2009 - 2016
Table 13 HTA key metrics financial overview 2009 - 2016
Table 14 VHA Monthly ARPU 2015- 2016
Table 15 Historic - Monthly ARPU and by segment 2009 - 2012
Table 16 Vodafone Australia revenue (historic) 1996; 1998 - 2008
Table 17 Total capital expenditure by major network provider 2009 - 2016
Table 18 Second-tier telcos total revenue ($ million) and annual change 2010 - 2017
Table 19 Second-tier telcos revenue ($ million) by major provider 2014 - 2016
Table 20 Second-tier telcos revenue by major provider annual change 2015 - 2016
Table 21 Second-tier telcos Revenue Market Share revenue by major provider 2016
Table 22 Historic - Second-tier telcos revenue by provider 2010 - 2014
Table 23 Historic - Second-tier telcos revenue by major provider annual change 2010 - 2014
Table 24 Historic - Second-tier telcos revenue by major provider relative market shares 2010 - 2014
Table 25 Historic - Second-tier telcos revenue by provider (historic) 2004 - 2007
Table 26 Historic - Second-tier telcos revenue by major provider relative market shares 2004 - 2007
Table 27 TPG revenue and annual change 2001 - 2016
Table 28 TPG consumer revenue breakdown by market segment (consumer) 2010 - 2016
Table 29 TPG revenue ($ million) breakdown by division 2009 2016
Table 30 iiNet total revenue 2004 - 2016
Table 31 iiNet revenue breakdown by market segment 2015 - 2016
Table 32 iiNet key financial statistics 2007 - 2016
Table 33 Vocus key financial parameters 2016
Table 34 Macquarie key financial indicators 2008 - 2016
Table 35 Macquarie revenue by division 2015 - 2016
Table 36 Total telecoms market retail revenue by service 2005 - 2017
Table 37 Total telecoms market annual retail growth by service 2001 - 2017
Table 38 Total telecoms market retail market share by service 2005 - 2017
Table 39 Historic - Total telecoms market retail revenue by service 2001 - 2004
Table 40 historic - Total telecoms market retail market share by service 2000 - 2004
Table 41 The wholesale market in Australia - key players - 2015
Table 42 - Count of TC-4 AVCs* by metropolitan/regional designation (Subscribers)
Table 43 Support for NBN
Table 44 Benefits of broadband for individual households a national framework
Table 45 Scenarios summary of benefits in 2020
Table 46 Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)
Table 47 FttN expenditure 2014-2016
Table 48 NBN uptake rates FttH and FttN
Table 49 FttN Roll Out 2014-2018 (cumulative (000)
Table 50 FttN - Weighted average cost per premise by technology (rounded nearest $100)
Table 51 FttH Premises Ready for Service 2014-2018
Table 52 FttH Premises Activated 2014 - 2018
Table 53 FttH Weighted average cost per premise by technology (rounded to the nearest 100)
Table 54 Wholesale DSL pricing, per month per user 2013 2014
Table 55 DSL broadband subscribers 2008 2017
Table 56 Historic - DSL subscribers and availability by state/territory 2013
Table 57 Historic - DSL premises affected by distance from exchange 2013
Table 58 Number of DSLAMs by major providers 2009 2012; 2014
Table 59 Total number of DSLAMs 2006 - 2014
Table 60 Number of ADSL and ADSL2+-enabled exchanges 2013 - 2016
Table 61 Fibre Access Broadband (FAB) exchanges November 2015
Table 62 Top Hat enabled exchanges 2011 - 2013
Table 63 Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider 2011 - 2016
Table 64 Total business and residential broadband subscribers 2006 - 2016
Table 65 Telstra broadband subscribers by sector 2007 2015
Table 66 Online business revenue 2013 - 2015
Table 67 Business, government and household dial-up subscribers 2009 - 2015
Table 68 Business, government and household broadband subscribers 2009 - 2014
Table 69 Business, government and household total internet subscribers 2009 - 2014
Table 70 Business uptake of broadband by access type 2010 - 2014
Table 71 SME online trends websites versus social media 2010 - 2015
Table 72 Historic - SME computer equipment ownership trends 1999 - 2004
Table 73 SME computer equipment ownership trends 2005 - 2015
Table 74 Computer hardware expenditure SMEs and medium businesses 2001 - 2014
Table 75 Business trends in internet connections 1998 - 2015
Table 76 SMEs internet access methods, by technology 2010 - 2015
Table 77 SMEs internet access methods, by technology 2010 - 2015
Table 78 Top uses of the internet by SMEs 2011 - 2015
Table 79 Proportion of SMEs with social media presence 2011 - 2015
Table 80 Estimated telco product mix of business customer spend 2015
Table 81 Revenue mix total spend of telecoms SME market 2015
Table 82 Revenue mix total spend of telecoms residential market 2016 (e)
Table 83 Historic - Total households versus internet enabled households 1999 - 2009
Table 84 Total households versus internet enabled households 2010 - 2016
Table 85 Broadband component of internet enabled households 2005 - 2016
Table 86 Fixed-line broadband data usage by users 2008 - 2016
Table 87 Historic - Dial-up and broadband internet subscribers 2003 - 2009
Table 88 Dial-up and broadband internet subscribers 2010 - 2017
Table 89 Dial-up and broadband internet subscribers by access connection 2010 - 2017
Table 90 Computerisation in the home 2012 - 2015
Table 91 Technology use in the home 2012 - 2015
Table 92 Proportion of the population using social networking sites 2011 - 2016
Table 93 Top 5 online applications 2013 - 2015
Table 94 Use of internet applications 2010 - 2015
Table 95 New complaints to the TIO per 10,000 services in operation 2013 - 2016
Table 96 Total new complaints to the TIO 2006 - 2015
Table 97 Number of investigations by the TIO, by levels 2009 - 2015
Table 98 Historic - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change 1993 - 2009
Table 99 Total mobile services market revenue and annual change 2010 - 2017
Table 100 Telstra mobile services revenue 2009 - 2016
Table 101 Vodafone Australia revenue 2009 - 2016
Table 102 Optus key financial indicators 2009 - 2017
Table 103 Optus mobile revenue 2013 2016
Table 104 Historic - Mobile market revenue per major operator 1993 - 2004
Table 105 Historic - Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2004
Table 106 Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator 2005 - 2016
Table 107 Mobile market share in revenue per major operator 2000 - 2016
Table 108 Telstra mobile and broadband revenue 2009 - 2016
Table 109 Blended monthly ARPU by MNO 2000 - 2016
Table 110 Annual change in blended monthly ARPU by MNO 2004 - 2016
Table 111 Telstra postpaid ARPU per month 2004 - 2016
Table 112 Optus postpaid ARPU per month 2004 - 2017
Table 113 Mobile subscribers, penetration rate and annual change 2000 - 2017
Table 114 Vodafone mobile subscribers 2009 2016
Table 115 Telstra mobile subscribers 2008 - 2016
Table 116 Telstra active retail prepaid and contract mobile subscribers 2011 - 2016
Table 117 Optus mobile subscribers 2008 - 2016
Table 118 Historic - Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier 1995; 1997; 2000 - 2009
Table 119 Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier 2010 - 2016
Table 120 Retail mobile subscriber market share by carrier 2015 - 2016
Table 121 Mobile subscriber market share by carrier 2010 - 2016
Table 122 Historic - 3G mobile subscribers by carrier 2003 - 2011
Table 123 Historic - Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier 2007 - 2011
Table 124 Historic - Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier 2006 - 2011
Table 125 Historic - 2G mobile subscribers by carrier 2006 - 2011
Table 126 Historic - Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier 2006 - 2011
Table 127 Average LTE speed by MNO 2012 - 2016
Table 128 Share of postpaid subscribers by operator 2014 2015
Table 129 Share of prepaid subscribers by operators 2014 2015
Table 130 Vodafone prepaid and contract subscribers 2009 2016
Table 131 Optus mobile prepaid and contract customers 2008 - 2016
Table 132 Telstra mobile subscribers 2009 - 2016
Table 133 MNO share of prepaid subscribers 2009 - 2016
Table 134 MNO share of postpaid subscribers 2009 - 2016
Table 135 MNO market proportion of prepaid and contract subscribers 2009 - 2015
Table 136 Telstra wholesale subscribers 2009 - 2016
Table 137 Vodafone wholesale (MVNO) subscribers 2014 - 2016
Table 138 Mobile Usage per State 2017
Table 139 Wireless broadband subscribers by access type 2009 - 2016
Table 140 Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator 2007 2016
Table 141 Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes 2007 - 2016
Table 142 Fixed wireless broadband subscribers 2010 - 2016
Table 143 Historic AUSTAR pay TV subscribers 2008 - 2011
Table 144 Pay TV subscribers, Foxtel, others and total 2008 - 2016
Table 145 Pay TV subscribers annual change by major operator 2008 - 2016
Table 146 Pay TV subscribers annual change by major operator (historic) 1997 - 2007
Table 147 Historic - Pay TV household penetration rates 1997 - 2004
Table 148 Pay TV household penetration rates 2005 - 2015
Table 149 Historic - Pay TV revenue by major operator 1997 - 2004
Table 150 Pay TV revenue by major operator 2005 - 2016
Table 151 Historic - Percentage change of pay TV revenue by major operator 1998 - 2004
Table 152 Percentage change of pay TV revenue by major operator 2005 - 2015
Table 153 Subscription TV advertising revenue and annual change 2000 - 2015
Chart 1 Second-tier telcos total revenue ($ million) and annual change 2010 2017
Chart 2 Overview of total telecoms market retail revenue by service 2005 - 2017
Chart 3 Total telecoms market retail market share by service 2005 - 2017
Chart 4 Market share size of NBN trans-sector market 2020
Chart 5 NBN services revenue share estimates by market share 2015
Chart 6 NBN services revenue share estimates by market share 2020
Chart 7 Telstra mobile services revenue 2009 2016
Chart 8 Overview of Vodafone Australia revenue 2009 - 2016
Chart 9 Optus key financial indicators 2009 2017
Chart 10 Overview of mobile revenue share per major operator 2000 - 2016
Chart 11 Telstra mobile and broadband revenue 2010 2016
Chart 12 Overview of blended monthly ARPU by MNO 2005 - 2016
Chart 13 Overview of mobile market subscribers versus population 2005 2017
Chart 14 Overview of annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier 2005 2016
Chart 15 Vodafone prepaid and contract subscribers 2009 2016
Chart 16 Optus mobile prepaid and contract customers 2008 2016
Chart 17 Telstra mobile subscribers 2009 2016
Exhibit 1 Summary of scenarios considered in this report
Exhibit 2 - Unbundled Local Loop Bitstream
Exhibit 3 Overview of the TIO complaint handling process
Exhibit 4 Background information on the 3G race by the MNOs

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