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EpiCast Report: Colorectal Cancer - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is cancer that starts in the colon or the rectum. CRC has the third highest incidence among all cancers in men and second highest in women. CRC is a high mortality cancer, with mortality rates just behind lung, liver, and stomach cancers in men, and breast and lung cancers in women. Most cases of CRC start as small adenoma polyps in the inner lining of the colon or rectum. CRC screening aims to identify and remove polyps when they are small to prevent the polyps from changing into cancer and has been shown to be effective in reducing the mortality from CRC.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of total diagnosed incident cases of CRC in the 8MM is expected to grow from 758,062 cases in 2013 to 1,016,937 cases in 2023 at a rate of 3.41% per year during the forecast period. The number of diagnosed prevalent cases in the 8MM is expected to increase by 34.1% over the next decade from 2,583,156 cases in 2013 to 3,464,998 cases in 2023.

GlobalData’s forecast and analysis is supported by at least 10 years of historical data obtained from international cancer organizations, country-specific government sources, and peer-reviewed studies. The forecast of incident CRC cases were based on detailed age-specific and sex-specific trends in incidence in each of the 8MM. This forecast provides detailed case-segmentation of the CRC pool for each country by age, sex, stage at diagnosis; prevalent cases are further segmented by KRAS mutation status, thereby providing a comprehensive view of CRC epidemiology in 8MM. The forecast is driven by a thorough analysis of historical data and current events such as screening initiatives and by the projected population growth in each country. The forecast methodology was also consistent across all eight markets, thereby allowing for a meaningful comparison among them.

Scope

- The colorectal cancer (CRC) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for CRC in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China [urban]). In addition, the report also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of CRC and diagnosed five-year prevalent cases in these markets from 2013-2023. The diagnosed incident cases of CRC are further segmented by age (20-39 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and =80 years), sex, stage at diagnosis, and KRAS mutation status.
- The CRC epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global CRC market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global CRC market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups, sex, stage at diagnosis, and KRAS mutation status that present the best opportunities for CRC therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Colorectal Cancer - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 7
2.1 Catalyst 7
2.2 Related Reports 8
2.3 Upcoming Reports 8
3 Epidemiology 9
3.1 Disease Background 9
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 9
3.3 Global Trends 12
3.3.1 8MM, Incidence Trends 12
3.3.2 8MM, Five-Year Relative Survival 14
3.3.3 8MM, Screening Programs for CRC 15
3.4 Forecast Methodology 17
3.4.1 Sources Used 18
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 25
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 26
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast of CRC (2013-2023) 30
3.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC 30
3.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC 32
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC 33
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Incidence 35
3.5.5 Cancer Stage at Diagnosis 36
3.5.6 Diagnosed Five-Year Prevalent Cases of CRC 37
3.5.7 KRAS Status among Diagnosed Five-Year Prevalent Cases of CRC 39
3.6 Discussion 40
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 40
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 42
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 42
4 Appendix 43
4.1 Bibliography 43
4.2 About the Authors 49
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 49
4.2.2 Reviewers 49
4.2.3 Acting Global Director of Epidemiology 50
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 51
4.3 About GlobalData 52
4.4 About EpiCast 52
4.5 Disclaimer 53

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for CRC 11
Table 2: 8MM, Five-Year Relative Survival 15
Table 3: 8MM, Sources of CRC Incidence Data 18
Table 4: 8MM, Sources of CRC Diagnosed Five-Year Prevalent Cases Data 20
Table 5: 8MM, Sources of CRC Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Data 21
Table 6: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 31
Table 7: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC, Both Sexes, N, Row (%), 2013 32
Table 8: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC, Ages ?20 Years, 2013 34
Table 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Five-Year Prevalent Cases of CRC, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 38
Table 10: 8MM, KRAS Status among CRC Prevalent Cases, 2013 40

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Historical Age-Adjusted CRC Incidence (Cases per 100,000 Population) in 8MM, Men, 1998-2007 13
Figure 2: Historical Age-Adjusted CRC Incidence (Cases per 100,000 Population), in 8MM, Women, 1998-2007 14
Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 31
Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC, Both Sexes, N, 2013 33
Figure 5: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of CRC, Ages ?20 Years, 2013 35
Figure 6: 8MM, Age-Standardized Incidence of CRC (Cases per 100,000 Population), Ages ?20 Years, by Sex, 2013. 36
Figure 7: 8MM, Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Percentage Distribution, Ages ?20 Years. 37
Figure 8: 8MM, Diagnosed Five-Year Prevalent Cases of CRC, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 39

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