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  5. > Mozambique Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Mozambique Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Mozambique's agricultural production is currently being significantly impacted by the 2015/16El Niño episode. The dry weather will dent grains, sugar and livestock production for a second consecutiveyear in 2016. We hold a relatively positive view on the agribusiness sector of Mozambique beyond 2017.Indeed, Mozambique has been attracting growing interest from foreign investors, and the industry willbenefit from this trend in the coming years. However, although the country could be able to tap abundantand largely unexploited land and water resources, its production will not keep up with robust consumptiongrowth. Self-sufficiency regarding corn and poultry will slowly decrease in the coming years, leading toincreasing imports.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 11.5% to reach 457,000 tonnes. As one of Mozambique's keycash crops, long-term sugar production growth will reflect an increase in export-driven demand and theopening up of new markets; output is also expected to benefit from investment in biofuels.

- Poultry consumption growth to 2020: 25.9% to 61,100 tonnes. Among the factors underpinning ourstrong growth expectations are Mozambique's expanding population and the country's rising standards ofliving.

- 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD10.67bn (up from USD10.54bn in 2015; growthexpected to average 6.3% annually between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (up from 6.2% in 2015; projected to average 7.0% annually between 2016and 2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 14.9% y-o-y (up from 3.5% in 2015; predicted to average 9.7% y-o-yover 2016-2020).

Table Of Contents

Mozambique Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Table: Mozambique - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Mozambique - Risks To Grains Outlook 12
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Mozambique 2012-2020) 15
Sugar Outlook 15
Table: Mozambique - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Mozambique - Risks To Sugar Outlook 16
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Mozambique 2012-2020) 20
Livestock Outlook 21
Table: Mozambique - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Mozambique - Risks To Livestock Outlook 22
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Mozambique 2012-2020) 25
Commodities Price Analysis 26
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 26
Upstream Analysis 28
Africa GM Outlook 28
Africa Machinery Outlook 35
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 35
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 41
Downstream Analysis 48
Food 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 49
Table: Food Sales (Mozambique 2013-2020) 50
Regional Overview 52
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 52
Demographic Forecast 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mozambique 1990-2025) 59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mozambique 1990-2025) 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Mozambique 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Mozambique 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mozambique 1990-2025) 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64

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