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Nigeria Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The ongoing economic malaise has compounded our already negative outlook for the Nigerianpower sector. We expect a combination of sabotage to gas pipelines, a scarcity of access to foreignexchange and a lack of liquidity in the distribution segment to weigh on much-needed private investment inthe sector - entrenching slow growth in capacity and generation.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The outlook for the Nigerian economy is bleak as the country undergoes a painful multi-year adjustmentto lower oil prices. We are retaining our view that the ongoing economic crisis will undermine efforts todraw private capital into the domestic power sector.

- We also emphasise that problems across the power sector supply chain - particularly gas shortages due topipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta - have compounded our negative outlook for the power sector.Militants, known as the Niger Delta Avengers (NDV), have launched a series of attacks on pipelineinfrastructure, which has cut gas supply to power plants dramatically.

- These attacks were behind the collapse of Nigeria's grid on March 31 2016 - an incident know as a 'zeropower' event. No grid-based electricity supply was available for around three hours.

- In line with the gas shortages, we now forecast that gas-fired electricity generation will contract by asignificant 20% in 2016 and remain flat in 2017. We caution, however, that we cannot rule out furtherdowngrades to our forecast. The rhetoric from President Buhari towards the NDV has beencharacteristically hardline. It is therefore likely violence will escalate as the government increases itsmilitary presence in the Delta and the NDV respond with further attacks.

- We emphasise the distribution sector has been hit particularly hard in the last few months as DistributionCompanies (DISCOs) struggle to access power (due to gas shortages at generation companies) andcollect payment for what little electricity they can provide. DISCOs are reported to be suffering from arevenue shortfall of NRN300bn (USD1.5bn) since privatisation, due to a culture of non-payment forelectricity.

- In June 2016, Nigeria is reported to have made a final investment decision on an USD80bn Russian-ledprogramme to build four new nuclear power plants. The plants will cost USD20bn each and will befinanced by Rosatom, which will construct them under a build, operate and transfer (BOT) agreement.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Nigeria Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Nigeria 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Nigeria 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Nigeria Power Forecast Scenario 11
Table: APC: Manifesto Needs To Be Fleshed Out 14
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 22
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 25
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 26
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 26
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 28
Electricity Consumption 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 29
Transmission and Distribution 29
Transmission and Distribution 32
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 32
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 32
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 33
SSA Power RRI: Shifting Scores Amid A Deteriorating Outlook 33
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 39
Nigeria Power Risk/Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Risks 40
Market Overview 42
Key Policies/Market Structure 42
Regulation and Competition 42
Table: PHCN Successor Companies 42
Pricing 44
Nigeria Power Projects Database 47
Competitive Landscape 50
Regional Overview 51
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 51
Glossary 59
Table: Glossary Of Terms 59
Methodology 60
Methodology And Sources 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sources 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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