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  4. > Peru Power Report Q3 2016

Peru Power Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Strong growth in electricity consumption, government tenders for power generation andtransmissions projects, and robust investor interest in the market continue to support our positive outlookfor the Peruvian power sector. The completion of the Southern Peruvian Pipeline - which is expected toprovide feedstock to new gas-fired power plants - will be delayed as a result of the pull-out of its leadingconstructor Odebrecht, confirming our view that delays in project tendering and implementation pose thebiggest risk to investing in the Peruvian power sector.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Underpinning our positive outlook for the Peruvian power sector, we believe the next Peruviangovernment will prioritise investment in infrastructure, regardless of which candidate emerges asvictorious in the second-round vote in June 2016. BMI's Country Risk team highlight that KeikoFujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski maintain pro-investment economic agendas that pledge a focus oninfrastructure spending, and both are set to have strong Congressional representation.

- We expect the completion of the Southern Peruvian Pipeline (Gasoducto Sur Peruano, GSP) to bedelayed as a result of the problems facing Brazilian constructor Odebrecht, the owner of a 55% stake inthe project. The consortium developing the GSP has struggled to secure financing amid the Lava Jatocorruption scandal, and Odebrecht's decision to exit the project in early April 2016 means time will needto be spent to find a replacement. As the GSP is expected to supply feedstock to two thermal powerplants under construction in Ilo and Mollendo, the delay has resulted in a revision to our forecast fornatural gas-fired power generation in Peru.

- In April 2016 the Peruvian government introduced a bill to parliament outlining the rules according towhich Peru will be able to export electricity to other neighbouring countries beyond Ecuador, with whichpower interchange already exists. A vast pipeline of new thermal and hydropower projects, coupled withgrowing regional policy emphasis on electricity interconnections between Andean countries, will supportPeru's plan to increase power exports to its neighbours over the coming years. Provided that politicalagreement is found, Chile is likely to be Peru's first export market as the electricity interconnectionproject between the two countries has already been defined.

Table Of Contents

Peru Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Peru 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Peru Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Peru 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Peru 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Peru Power Forecast Scenario 12
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Table: Peru Key Thermal Power Pipeline 14
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 19
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Table: Peru's Third Renewables Energy Auction - Results 22
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 26
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 26
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 28
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Peru - Key Copper Projects 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 30
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 31
Table: Power Transmission Projects To Be Tendered By Proinversión 32
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 33
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 34
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
Latin America - LatAm RRI: Argentina Gaining Amid Chile's Continued Outperformance 35
Table: LATIN AMERICA POWER RISK/REWARD INDEX (SCORES OUT OF 100) 41
Peru Power Risk/Reward Index 42
Rewards 42
Risks 42
Market Overview 44
Key Policies And Market Structure 44
Regulation And Competition 44
Peru Power Projects Database 45
Competitive Landscape 48
Electroperu 49
Enel 49
Duke Energy/Egenor 50
Engie/Enersur 50
EGE San Gaban 50
Perenesa 52
Regional Overview 53
Latin America - LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 53
Table: BMI's Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 58
Glossary 59
Table: Glossary Of Terms 59
Methodology 60
Methodology And Sources 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sources 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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