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Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect Uzbekistan to remain a major producer and exporter of natural gas in the regionthanks to its vast reserves and continuous exploration and development activities. Our outlook for thecountry's oil sector is much bleaker as faltering production levels and backward refining sector will leavethe country increasingly dependent on refined products imports, posing substantial risk of fuel shortages.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- In late April 2016, South Korea-based Hyundai Engineering Company started building the USD2.66bnKandym gas processing plant at the Kandym gas field. Construction of the processing plant is expected tobe completed in H119, reports World Construction Network. The facility will have capacity to produce8.2bcm of natural gas annually.

- In May 2016, Uzbekneftegaz and Azerbaijan's state-owned energy company Socar signed amemorandum for cooperation and joint activity to work together in the fields of oil and gas explorationand development as well as seek other opportunities in the energy markets.

- This quarter we have kept our previous forecast for Uzbekistan's oil reserves, which we expect to declineat an annual average rate of 2.0% over the coming decade, shrinking from an estimated 600mn bbl in2015 to 490mn bbl in 2025. Although at a slower pace, gas reserves will also continue on a downwardpath, registering 0.6% annual decline per annum between 2016 and 2025.

- Uzbekistan's oil production will continue to decline at an accelerating pace over the coming decade,shrinking from 83,470b/d in 2015 to 73,960b/d in 2025. The decline in crude oil production will besomewhat counter-balanced by gradually increasing natural gas liquids output.

- After recording a strong 7.8% production growth in 2015, we project Uzbekistan's gas production tosustain positive momentum in 2016, expanding by additional 2.3% and reaching 71.6bcm. Over thelonger-term, the new Kandym gas plant will support continued growth in the country's gas productionlevels from 2019 onwards, lifting the output to around 72.8bcm in 2025.

Table Of Contents

Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Uzbekistan - Major Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 18
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 24
Refined Fuels Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 27
Gas Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Oil 30
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2020) 31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 32
Fuels Trade Forecasts 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 37
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 38
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 38
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 41
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Uzbekistan - Risk/Reward Index 45
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Rewards 45
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Risks 45
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Overview 45
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Rewards 46
Uzbekistan Downstream Index- Risks 46
Market Overview 47
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview 47
Regulatory Structure 47
Fiscal Regime 48
Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Tax Regime 48
Licensing Regime 48
Licensing Rounds 49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan 50
Oil Shale Plant 52
Oil Pipelines 53
Gas Processing Plants 53
Gas Storage Facilities 55
Gas Pipelines 55
Gas Filling Stations 58
Competitive Landscape 59
Competitive Landscape Summary 59
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 60
Table: Key Upstream Players 60
Table: Key Downstream Players 60
Company Profile 61
Uzbekneftegaz 61
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uzbekistan 62
Table: Key Financial Data 62
Regional Overview 63
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 63
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 63
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 64
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 65
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 66
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 67
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 68
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 69
Glossary 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Source 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 77
Table: Weighting 78

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