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Afghanistan - Telecoms, Mobile, Internet and Forecasts

  • April 2013
  • -
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
  • -
  • 45 pages

Afghanistan's mobile operators welcome 3G licences as a boost to the market and the customer
In what has certainly been a challenging task, Afghanistan has built some positive momentum in its effort to put national telecom infrastructure in place and to offer effective telecom service throughout the country. The process involved in achieving this, however, has not been a smooth one. By end-2001, as a result of the US-led military action, the Taliban had been removed from power and a broad-based transitional government was established. The 2001 war in Afghanistan destroyed telecommunications infrastructure that had already been suffering serious disrepair due to neglect by the pre-war Taliban government. The nation's network of telephone lines was left barely functioning. There were only 12,000 telephones in the capital city, Kabul, with its population of almost 2 million residents.
By 2003 recovery had commenced. In an important strategic move, the government announced in 2005 that licences were to be issued to allow the private sector to establish independent telephone companies. This initiative was called the Local Fixed Services Plan (LFSP). The main objectives of the LFSP licences were to facilitate faster rollout of services to small towns and rural areas and to provide an investment opportunity for small-medium local investors across the country.
The other major impact on telecommunications in Afghanistan came with the introduction and subsequent expansion of the mobile telephone service. In 2003, growing off a low subscriber base, the country's mobile network operated exclusively at the time by the Afghan Wireless Communications Company (AWCC), started to attract customers at an extraordinary rate. The launch of a second mobile service, operated by Roshan, boosted the market even further and strong subscriber growth continued through 2004 and into 2005. Coming into 2013 there were four major mobile operators (and one minor one) competing in Afghanistan's telecom sector; between them they were claiming a total of over 20 million subscribers, representing an overall mobile penetration of 67%. All four of the major operators were carrying market shares in excess of 20%.
By 2012 internet penetration remained generally low throughout Afghanistan. With internet access relying heavily on dial-up services and only around 3,000 broadband subscribers in place, the online segment of the market was looking for a boost. With the country's 20 million mobile subscribers, newly issued 3G licences offered a special opportunity for delivering mobile broadband to Afghanistan's population.
The political and civil stability of the country remains a big question; it is of course a constant threat to effectiveness of the telecommunications network and the viability of the telecommunications sector. The certainly does appear to be a will to secure the future of telecommunications in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan key telecom parameters 2012 - 2013
Category | 2012 | 2013 (e)
Fixed-line services: | |
Total number of subscribers | 254,000 | 300,000
Internet: | |
Total number of fixed subscribers (e) | 150,000 | 180,000
Mobile services: | |
Total number of subscribers | 20.4 million | 22.0 million
(Source: BuddeComm)

Market highlights:

Afghanistan's mobile market continued on its positive expansion path in 2012, with an annual growth rate of 16% coming into 2013;
With mobile market continues to demonstrate considerable resilience, reaching 67% penetration in what has been a most difficult environment;
The country's four major mobile operators continue to provide healthy and energetic competition in the mobile market, with all four operators being well represented in terms of market share (all four have at least 20% of the total subscriber base);
Most significantly, ATRA, the telecom regulator, started issuing 3G licences in 2012 and by year-end three of the existing operators had been assigned.
The country's internet market is growing steadily (although available statistics to support this pattern are limited); with a major surge in internet users reported by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in 2009, there was finally a positive mood surrounding longer term internet growth;
The advent of 3G mobile services in 2012 was expected to be a boost to internet access with the substantial offering of mobile broadband services;
On a broader front, however, the ongoing political and civil unrest continues to be of concern to the country and its people, with any deterioration in the situation certainly having an impact on the telecom sector;
In this regard, the withdrawal of foreign troops over the coming year or so may cause some winding back in foreign investment and even the withdrawal from the market of some foreign companies.

This report provides an overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications markets in Afghanistan.

Subjects covered include:

Key statistics;
Market and industry overviews;
Regulatory environment and developments;
Infrastructure;

Mobile market
voice and data;
Internet and the broadband market;
Operators mobile and fixed;
TV broadcasting.
Scenario forecasts (fixed, internet, mobile subscribers).

Table Of Contents

Afghanistan - Telecoms, Mobile, Internet and Forecasts
1. Executive summary
2. Key statistics
3. Country overview
3.1 Background
3.2 Economy
4. Telecommunications market
4.1 Afghanistan's telecom market
4.1.1 Overview
4.1.2 Minister of Communications and Information Technology
4.1.3 Background
5. Regulatory environment
5.1 Regulatory authorities
5.1.1 Background
5.1.2 Afghanistan Telecom Regulatory Authority (ATRA)
5.2 Regulatory developments
5.2.1 Years 2012 / 2013
5.2.2 Illegal operators
5.2.3 Year 2011 and earlier
6. Fixed network operators in Afghanistan
6.1 Overview
6.2 Afghan Telecom
6.3 Other operators and licences
6.3.1 Afghan Wireless Communications Co (AWCC)
6.3.2 Wasel Telecom
6.3.3 Other licences
7. Telecommunications infrastructure
7.1 Overview
7.1.1 Background
7.1.2 Post-2001
7.1.3 Fixed-line statistics
7.1.4 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
7.1.5 National network - background
7.1.6 Local Fixed Services Plan (LFSP)
7.1.7 Optical fibre backbone
7.1.8 Telecommunication Development Fund (TDF)
7.1.9 Satellite services
7.1.10 Satellite project
7.2 Infrastructure projects
7.2.1 Globecomm contracts
7.2.2 Noori Fiber Tech project
7.2.3 AWCC's microwave ring
8. Internet market
8.1 Overview
8.2 Internet statistics
8.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
8.4 E-health
8.5 e-Government
8.6 Internet cafes
8.7 Internet Service Providers (ISPs)
9. Mobile communications
9.1 Overview of Afghanistan's mobile market
9.1.1 Background
9.1.2 Post-2001
9.1.3 Under-served areas
9.2 Mobile market statistics
9.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
9.4 Mobile data services
9.4.1 Mobile banking
9.5 Mobile operators
9.5.1 Afghan Wireless (AWCC)
9.5.2 Roshan
9.5.3 MTN (Areeba)
9.5.4 Etisalat Afghanistan
9.5.5 Afghan Telecom (Aftel)
9.6 Third Generation (3G)
9.6.1 Background
9.6.2 Bidding process
9.6.3 Licensing and service launches
9.7 Satellite mobile
10. Broadcasting market
10.1 Overview
10.2 National broadcaster
10.3 Badakhshan TV
10.4 Herat TV
10.5 Satellite TV
10.6 Afghan TV
10.7 Cable TV
11. Notes on scenario forecasts
12. Related reports
Table 1 Country statistics Afghanistan 2012
Table 2 Telephone network statistics 2012
Table 3 Internet statistics 2012
Table 4 Mobile statistics 2012
Table 5 National telecommunications authorities
Table 6 Afghanistan's GDP real growth rate 2006 - 2014
Table 7 Historical - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity 1994; 2000 - 2004
Table 8 Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity 2005 - 2013
Table 9 Fixed wireless (WLL) subscribers 2011 - 2012
Table 10 Fixed-line subscribers wireline and wireless - 2012
Table 11 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 12 Historical - Internet users 2002 - 2004
Table 13 Internet users 2005 - 2013
Table 14 Historical - Internet subscribers 2002 - 2004
Table 15 Fixed internet subscribers 2005 - 2013
Table 16 Fixed broadband subscribers 2005 - 2012
Table 17 International internet bandwidth 2005 - 2012
Table 18 Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 19 Mobile subscribers and annual change 2002 - 2013
Table 20 Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change 2012
Table 21 Market share by major operators 2012
Table 22 ARPU by operator 2008 - 2009
Table 23 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 24 AWCC's mobile subscribers 2005 - 2012
Table 25 Roshan's mobile subscribers 2005 - 2012
Table 26 MTN's mobile subscribers 2007 - 2012
Table 27 Etisalat's mobile subscribers 2007 - 2012
Table 28 Key broadcasting statistics 2012
Chart 1 - Afghanistans GDP real growth rate - 2006 2014
Chart 2 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 2005 - 2013
Chart 3 - Fixed-line subscribers - wireline and wireless - 2012
Chart 4 - Internet users - 2008 2013
Chart 5 - Mobile subscribers and annual change - 2005 - 2013 (e)
Chart 6 - Market share by major operators 2012
Chart 7 - AWCCs mobile subscribers - 2005 - 2012
Chart 8 - Roshans mobile subscribers - 2005 - 2012
Exhibit 1 Telemedicine in Afghanistan

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