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  5. > Kenya Power Report Q3 2016

Kenya Power Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 52 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Over the next decade, the Kenyan power sector will be characterised by strong growth in nonhydropowerrenewable capacity. A focus on geothermal will ensure a non-intermittent supply of renewableenergy and enable the country to be a non-hydropower renewable outperformer in Sub-Saharan Africa.Continued investments into grid infrastructure and interconnections will enable the increase inelectrification rates as well as electricity trading capacity.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The development of the 700-megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in Mombasa has been cancelled dueto concerns that surplus supply will lead to high electricity costs for both homes and businesses.

- We maintain our forecasts from last quarter for thermal power generation in Kenya. The increase in nonhydropowerrenewable generation - especially non-intermittent geothermal power - appears to becrowding out thermal power investments. The cancellation of the Mombasa gas-fired power plant overfears of overcapacity driving up consumer costs seems to confirm this.

- KenGen has stated that it will start construction of a 140MW geothermal power plant in Olkaria by theend of 2016. We have included the plant into our forecasts for 2018.

- The Rural Electrification Authority has announced that by July 2016, it will start construction on a55MW solar park in Garissa. The solar plant is also currently included in our forecasts for 2018.

- We maintain our forecasts for hydropower from the previous quarter. We do not forecast any newhydropower capacity coming online over our forecast period and expect hydropower generation to remainat an annual average of between 4.3 terawatt hours (TWh) and 4.5TWh over our 10-year forecast periodup until 2025.

- Kenya's electrification rate has increased to 50% and the government is planning to increase this level to70% by mid-2017 through the Last Mile Connectivity Project.

- Lamu County has been connected to the national grid after having to depend on diesel-fired generatorsfor the past 53 years.

Table Of Contents

Kenya Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Kenya 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Kenya Snapshot 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Kenya 2015-2020) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Kenya 2020-2025) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 9
Kenya Power Forecast Scenario 10
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 10
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 11
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019) 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2020-2025) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2020-2025) 16
Electricity Consumption 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2020-2025) 17
Transmission and Distribution 18
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2020-2025) 19
Table: Trade Data And Forecastas (Kenya 2014-2019) 19
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Country 2020-2025) 19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 20
Sub-Saharan Africa Power Risk/Reward Index 20
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 26
Kenya Power Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Risks 27
Market Overview 29
Key Policies And Market Structure 29
Kenya Power Projects Database 31
Competitive Landscape 34
Regional Overview 38
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 38
Glossary 46
Table: Glossary Of Terms 46
Methodology 47
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecast Methodology 47
Sources 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52

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