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India Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 94 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: India will remain an agricultural powerhouse over our forecast period and should be able tomaintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities willbe driven by strong government support and robust demand growth for manufactured foodstuffs. We seesignificant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will beincreasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomena and serious water shortages. Moreover, thecountry will remain prone to erratic government interventions, which seriously hamper its reputation as aninternational provider.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 3.7% to 30.1mn tonnes. Inefficiencies in the pricing policy willconstrain growth. Output expansion will mainly come from the liberalisation of the market, of which thefirst signs can be observed.

- Palm oil consumption growth to 2020: 31.8% to 11.9mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption willbe propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palmoil demand.

- Beef & veal production to 2019/20: 23.5% to 5.1mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by improvementsin breeding techniques, and by the robust expansion of the milk sector. Export demand for Indian beefwill also support investment in the sector.

- Agribusiness market value: USD256.7bn in 2016 (up from USD244.9bn in 2015; forecast to growannually by 6.0% on average from 2016 to 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 7.2% (down from 7.6% in 2015; predicted to average 6.8% from 2016 to 2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 4.8% y-o-y ave (down from 5.1% in 2015; forecast to average 4.4%from 2016 to 2020).

Table Of Contents

India Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: India - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 13
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 18
Rice Outlook 19
Latest Updates 19
Table: India - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (India 2012-2020) 22
Sugar Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: India - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 27
Dairy Outlook 28
Latest Updates 28
Table: India - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 29
Table: Risks To Outlook 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 35
Livestock Outlook 36
Latest Updates 36
Table: India - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 37
Table: Risks To Outlook 37
Structural Trends 38
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 42
Palm Oil Outlook 44
Latest Updates 44
Table: India - Palm Oil Production and Consumption Outlook 45
Table: Risks To Outlook 45
Structural Trends 45
Table: Palm Oil Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 49
Coffee Outlook 50
Latest Updates 50
Table: India - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 50
Table: Risks To Outlook 51
Structural Trends 52
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 54
Commodity Price Analysis 55
Global Commodities Strategy 55
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 55
Upstream Analysis 57
Asia GM Outlook 57
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 61
Asia Machinery Outlook 63
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 68
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 70
Downstream Analysis 76
Food 76
Latest Updates 76
Structural Trends 77
Table: Food Sales (India 2013-2020) 79
Regional Overview 81
Competitive Landscape 87
Table: India - Major Agribusiness Companies 87
Demographic Forecast 88
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025) 89
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025) 89
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025) 90
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025) 90
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025) 91
Methodology 93
Industry Forecast Methodology 93
Sector-Specific Methodology 94

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