1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Iran Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

Iran Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

  • July 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 44 pages

Core Views
Recent improvements in relations with the West bode well for the country's economy. That said, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme will ensure that risks to the outlook remain elevated. The economy is set to return to growth in 2014, as improving relations with the West and better macroeconomic management, coupled with low base effects, will lead to an improved outlook for exports and increased business and consumer confidence. Despite some improvements, the Iranian rial will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiations over the coming quarters.

Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and are projecting the economy to expand by 3.2% in real terms in 2014, up from our previous forecast of 2.8% growth.

Table Of Contents

Iran Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
Executive Summary.... 5
Core Views..5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks To Outlook....5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis.... 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings. 7
Domestic Politics 8
Nuclear Talks: Regional Implications....8
A breakdown or a breakthrough in nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 will have immense regional implications. Increased
economic opportunities from a breakthrough would significantly benefit Gulf Cooperation Council states, although Saudi Arabia would
see its geopolitical clout reduced. A positive conclusion of talks would also facilitate a political solution to the civil war in Syria over the
next five to 10 years, with positive implications for stability in Lebanon and Iraq.
TABLE: Political Overview....8
TABLE: Possible Scenarios As Diplomacy Advances....9
TABLE: Syria - Long-Term Scenarios....9
Long-Term Political Outlook 12
Regime Change Likely By The Next Decade12
Although Iran's Islamic regime has proved resilient in the face of tremendous domestic and external pressure, we believe that it cannot
continue in its present form indefinitely. Consequently, we expect to see 'regime change' by the next decade, either through gradual
reform or a popular uprising.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.. 17
SWOT Analysis.. 17
BMI Economic Risk Ratings. 17
Economic Activity.. 18
Modest Expansion In 2014 And 2015..18
We forecast real GDP growth of 3.2% and 2.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, from a 2.9% contraction in 2013. The return to growth
will be the result of improving relations with the West, more effective macroeconomic management and low base effects. The lack of a
breakthrough in nuclear talks will ensure that foreign direct investment - particularly by Western companies - remains limited.
TABLE: Possible Scenarios As Diplomacy Advances..18
TABLE: Economic Activity ...19
Monetary Policy 20
Inflationary Environment Improving In 2014 And 2015....20
Inflationary pressure in Iran will be lower in H214 and 2015 compared to 2013. This will provide Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with
the necessary public support to continue talks with the P5+1 countries on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme.
TABLE: Monetary Policy 21
Banking Sector I .... 22
Reform Only In The Medium Term..22
Declining inflation and an improved macroeconomic environment will improve the outlook for Iranian banks in 2014. That said, risks to
the stability of the industry will remain elevated this year. The government will seek to implement structural reform to the sector, which
will decrease systemic risk over the next five years.
Banking Sector II.... 23
Negative Real Interest Rates Affecting Stability....23
Despite gradually declining price pressures in Iran, real interest rates will remain in negative territory until 2018, while the elevated nonperforming
loan ratio will hinder borrowing. As a result, the banking sector will remain in a crisis situation despite the slowly improving
macroeconomic environment.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 25
The Iranian Economy To 2023... 25
Significant Challenges Ahead....25
The inability of Iran to fully exploit its enormous oil and gas wealth will keep real GDP growth rates averaging 4.0% over the next 10 years,
below the strong potential of the country's economy. Iran's youthful demographics mean that private consumption and investment will
primarily drive this growth.
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts .25
Chapter 4: Business Environment 27
SWOT Analysis.. 27
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 27
Business Environment Outlook 28
Institutions.... 28
Infrastructure 29
Market Orientation.. 32
Operational Risk 33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 35
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare.. 35
TABLE: Phar maceutical Sales , Hist orical Data And Forecasts 36
TABLE: Healthcare Expe nditure Tre nds , Hist orical Data And Forecasts 38
TABLE: Gover nment Healthcare Expe nditure Tre nds , Hist orical Data And Forecasts ... 38
TABLE: Pri vate Healthcare Expe nditure Tre nds , Hist orical Data And Forecasts ... 38
Telecommunications... 40
TABLE: Telec oms Sect or - Mobile - Hist orical Data and Forecasts . 40
TABLE: Telec oms Sect or - Wireli ne - Hist orical Data and Forecasts .. 42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 43
Global Outlook... 43
Global Recovery Still On Track..43
Table: Global Assumptions....43
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP Growt H, %.44
Table : Emergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Amrita

+1 718 303 2019

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Biorefinery Technologies: Global Markets

Biorefinery Technologies: Global Markets

  • $ 6650
  • Industry report
  • July 2016
  • by BCC Research

This BCC Research report provides a critical evaluation of the current status of commercial biorefinery markets and the ways in which recent environmental legislation and breakthroughs in technology will ...

Oilfield Process Chemicals: Global Markets

Oilfield Process Chemicals: Global Markets

  • $ 6650
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by BCC Research

Use this report to: - Analyze the chemicals involved in oil and gas exploration and production at the chemical manufacturing sales level - Discuss and classify the market on the basis of chemical application, ...

Industrial Plugs & Sockets Market by Protection, Type, End-User - Global Forecast to 2021

Industrial Plugs & Sockets Market by Protection, Type, End-User - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 6328
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“The industrial plugs & sockets market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.82% from 2016 to 2021” The industrial plugs & sockets market is projected to reach USD 3.60 billion by 2021, growing at a ...


Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.