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  5. > New Zealand Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

New Zealand Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
New Zealand is set to become increasingly dependent on crude imports as domestic production falls. Ongoing exploration provides little solace, with limited scope for exploration success outside the mature Taranaki basin a major concern. Demand for refined fuels is set to fall gradually over the next 10 years, alongside government efforts to shift overall energy mix further towards cleaner energy sources (renewables, alternative vehicle fuels). Gas consumption remains capped via production, with little likelihood of LNG imports materialising within our 10-year forecast period.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts


- Exploration blocks offered as part of the 2016 & 2017 Block Offer pose minor upside risk to our forecasts, though lack of interest in permits outside the Taranaki basin remains a concern.

- In fact, New Zealand's crude oil production is set to fall consistently over the next decade, as overreliance on the mature Taranaki basin inevitably allows natural declines to take a toll on overall output.

- This will in turn, drive-up the need for crude oil imports, benefitting major suppliers such as those in the Middle East as well as Russia and Malaysia.

- Consumption of natural gas remains capped by production due to New Zealand's lack of any import infrastructure. The projected fall-off in output beyond-2020 poses a threat to the country's most gasintensive sectors, such as chemicals, food processing and commercial sectors.

Table Of Contents

New Zealand Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (New Zealand 2014-2019) 11
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (New Zealand 2020-2025) 12
Upstream Projects 12
Table: New Zealand - Key Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Gas Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) 18
Table: Gas Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) 19
Refining 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) 22
Refined Fuels Consumption 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (New Zealand 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (New Zealand 2020-2025) 25
Gas Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Gas Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (New Zealand 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil 28
Crude Oil Forecasts 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) 30
Fuels Trade Forecasts 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) 33
Industry Risk Reward Index 34
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 40
New Zealand - Risk/Reward Index 41
Upstream Index 41
Downstream Index 41
Market Overview 43
New Zealand Energy Market Overview 43
Regulatory Structure 43
Table: 2013 Permit Duration Changes 43
Fiscal Regime 44
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 44
Licensing Rounds 44
Table: 2015 Block Offer Winners 45
Table: 2016 Block Offer Release Areas 45
Table: Areas Nominated For 2017 Block Offer 46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 46
Oil Refineries 46
Table: Oil Refineries 46
Oil Trade And Storage Facilities 46
Oil And Gas Pipelines 47
Gas Storage Facilities 47
Regional Overview 48
Asia - Oil Outlook Subdued On Persistent Price Weakness 48
Glossary 56
Table: Glossary Of Terms 56
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Source 60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 60
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 62
Table: Weighting 63

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