Table of Contents
Conventional generation will continue to dominate global installed capacity, although compared to years ago, investment in gas is projected to increase at a greater rate, at the expense of coal and nuclear.
Utilities in liberalised markets—essentially most of Europe and parts of North America—are facing a massive challenge to their traditional business model from the growth in decentralised generation, mainly renewable based. Gas plants in Europe with a total capacity of x GW have been mothballed since 2012.
The power generation equipment market is undergoing globalisation, with a number of significant mergers and takeovers in the last x years. Scale is becoming the key to competing in the industry.
Russia and Europe remain dependent on each other in a gas supplier-customer relationship. Although there is a potential for issues to crop up between Russia and Ukraine, major disruptions to European supply are unlikely because of the co-dependence.
Shale gas is unlikely to play a major role in global gas supply until the mid-2020s due to a range of technical, political, and environmental challenges. There have already been disappointments in test drilling in several European states and there is potential for more bad news in other countries and regions.
Although ambitions were scaled back post-Fukushima, new investment in nuclear power continues, with China dominating. The need to reduce pollution in China could encourage the government to consider increasing nuclear capacity investment at the expense of coal.
The installed capacity of non-hydro based renewable energy will increase from % in 2012 to % by 2030. Solar PV will experience the fastest growth rate, as commercial and utility-scale solar increasingly challenges conventional gas-fired generation at peak times. Solar PV module prices have stabilised in 2013-2014, but the consensus is that a further decline in prices will occur between 2015 and 2020.
Wind power investment declined in 2013, mainly because of a slowdown in North America due to the expiry of tax credits. Now, developing economies are the most important wind markets. The potential growth of offshore wind energy has declined because of capital costs and project complexity.
Grid modernisation investment to enable a future smart grid continues, with a total investment of $ billion in 2013, up from $ billion in 2012. China is now the largest market, globally, overtaking the US, mainly due to its smart metering rollout.
Energy storage is now taken seriously by participants across the energy sector. Market participants are making substantial investment in demonstration projects and detailed analysis of potential business models and returns that key participants in the industry could expect.
The Russia-Ukraine situation is generating headlines, but Europe should be able to avoid major gas-supply disruptions due to a combination of storage and the co-dependence between Europe and Russia.
Globalisation in the equipment market means that those staying independent need to ensure that they either have a specialised niche or very strong industry partnerships.
The challenge facing utilities is the creation of an opportunity for new participants to enter the market and compete for customers.
In order to compete, new business models that monetise the advantages of local generation and storage need to be developed.
The decline in solar PV prices is very significant once solar reaches grid parity, as it could become the default investment choice.
Aim and Objective of the Study
•To provide an analysis of the key global trends affecting the power and energy market over the course of the next decade and beyond, with a focus at the start of each section on recent events and their impact.
•To provide insight into future market developments with full analysis of the major markets in the global power and energy market.
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