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Strategic Analysis of Emission Control Programs in Key Markets Towards 2020 : Diesel to Decline, Electrified Powertrains to Get Large Regulatory Boost

  • December 2014
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 61 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Key Findings

Europe will lead the emission control program with more stringent and methodical measures. South Korea and China will have to introduce extensive policy reforms to improve their emission outlooks.
Europe will see comprehensive emission control programs implemented that aim to cut down on Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle uptake. Diesels engines will be penalized to a large extent in order to improve air quality levels. Low and ultra low emission zones (LEZ and ULEZ) are expected to improve the acceptance of electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids, and they will consequently account to about x % to x % of total sales by 2020.
North America will have increasing control on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improving fuel economy year-on-year. North America plans to take the average fuel economy to about 48 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2020 and mpg by 2025. California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate and Environmental Protection Agency/Corporate Average Fuel Economy (EPA/CAFE) norms will play a pivotal role in overcoming consumer reluctance and will bring more clean vehicles to the road.
China will continue to scale down the ICE vehicle uptake by imposing sizeable upfront taxes. New energy vehicle (NEV) uptake will be slowed down in the short term due to their range anxiety and high purchasing costs.
South Korea will see drastic emission control targets implemented that will be required to be met In the years leading up to 2020. However, considerable improvements in the EV outlook are expected to happen before 2020, as well as after. This will be bolstered by purchase and ownership incentives.
Over x % of vehicles produced in Japan were target compliant in 2013 from an emission and fuel economy standpoint. Japan also has the most conducive outlook for hybrid/EV growth. By 2020 Japan is expected to constitute about x % to x % of total vehicle production.
Japanese vehicles will also see an increasing adoption of turbochargers (TCs). As the x to x liter (L) engine powered vehicle segment expands, close to x % to x % of gasoline vehicles are expected to become turbocharged by 2020.
North America will see high levels of downsizing, and smaller boosted engines are expected to penetrate multiple segments to improve fuel economy numbers. Vehicles with engines below x L are expected to grow at almost double the pace of industry growth. Variable valve trains, direct injections, combustion efficiency improvements, stop starts, and energy recovery systems will be the main technology focus approaching 2020.
In the LATAM region, Brazil will remain the pioneer in the introduction of newer emission and fuel economy standards. The Inovar program (phase 2) is expected to carry significant incentives for clean vehicles. For ICEs, downsizing variable valve timing (VVT) systems and direct injection systems will drive compliance forward. Close to x % to x % of gasoline engines are expected to be direct injected by 2020.

Aim

The study aims to identify important emission control and fuel economy improvement programs in the global key markets, thereby determining what powertrain technologies would play pivotal roles in ensuring compliance in these regions.

Objectives

•Provide an overview of emission control programs in key markets, understand policy framework and various prevalent incentive schemes.
•Understand risk associated with these markets in terms of their air quality and consequent vehicle emission control programs by the government and regulatory bodies.
•Map current and potential low emission zones and determine the impact of these on the uptake on ICEs and Evs.
•Analyze and understand actual impact of policy making on the growth and uptake of low emitting vehicles in the case of specific cities (e.g., London and Shanghai).
•Understand the overall role of all major regulatory measures in shaping the powertrain technologies in these regions and determine what technologies will be in focus to improve compliance and move closer to tail pipe emission and fuel economy targets.

Key Questions this Study will Answer

What are the key risk areas (low emission zones) in Europe that may have a bearing on conventional ICE technologies and what will be their impact?
How does the stringency of emission control programs in key global markets progress towards 2020?
What are the important strategic measures prevalent in these markets that will improve the uptake of cleaner vehicles and what does the future look like?
What are the exemplary measures being adopted by high polluted urban areas to bring down vehicle emission, which may influence other markets and regions to follow this path?
What will be the impact of these programs on conventional ICE and electrified powertrain technologies? What technologies will be key enablers?

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