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Zambia Insurance Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 47 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


>BMI View:
Zambia's insurance market had been growing quite strongly from a very low base in recent years, but macroeconomic headwinds, including rising inflation, lower economic growth and currency weakness have seen premium growth in local currency terms stagnate over the last year or so, and go into reverse in dollar terms. Growth in real terms should resume in both local currency and dollar terms, although the overall size of the market will remain small for many years to come, due to high levels of poverty, income inequality and age demographics. Key Updates & Forecasts

- For now, we look for gross premiums written in the life sector to rise in local currency terms by 16.4% in 2016, to ZMW711mn. Given currency movements, this equates with a 2.8% drop in USD terms to USD70mn. However, inflation has been high in 2016 - estimated at around 20% - so in real terms, the value of gross premiums written will probably have fallen even in local currency terms in 2016. As inflation falls from its current elevated level, kwacha denominated growth in gross life premiums written should begin to rise once again in real terms, too. The annual increases in USD terms will vary significantly, owing to continued volatility in the exchange rate; a gain of 16.1% is forecast for 2017, followed by 11.7% in 2018, 6.5% in 2019 and 6.3% in 2020.

- In the non-life market, we expect gross premiums written to increase 12.8% in local currency terms to ZMW2.00bn in 2016, although the high rate of annual inflation will again ensure that returns in real terms will be in negative territory. The trajectory for gross non-life premiums written in dollar terms will also be negative in 2016, at a rate of 0.2%, bringing gross premiums written in this currency down to USD226mn. However, as with the life market, there should be quite a robust recovery from 2017.

Table Of Contents

Zambia Insurance Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Headline Insurance Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2020) 5
SWOT 6
Industry Forecast 8
Life Premiums Forecast 8
Table: Life Premiums (Zambia 2013-2020) 11
Table: Life Insurance Claims (Zambia 2008-2013) 11
Non-Life Premiums Forecast 12
Table: Non-Life Premiums (Zambia 2013-2020) 15
Table: Non-Life Insurance Claims (Zambia 2009-2013) 15
Non-Life Sub-Sector Forecast 16
Table: Non-Life Insurance Premiums by Product Line (Zambia 2013-2020) 22
Insurance Risk/Reward Index 23
Sub-Saharan Africa Insurance Risk/Reward Index 23
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Insurance Risk/Reward Index - Q117 23
Market Overview 25
Life Market Overview 25
The Product Offering 25
The Competitive Landscape 26
Table: Life Market Share (USDmn), 2010-2013 28
Non-Life Market Overview 28
The Product Offering 28
The Competitive Landscape 29
Table: Non-Life Market Shares (USDmn), 2010-2013 31
Company Profile 33
African Life 33
Madison 35
PICZ 37
ZSIC 39
Methodology 41
Industry Forecast Methodology 41
Sector-Specific Methodology 42
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 44
Table: Indicators 46
Table: Weighting of Indicators 47

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