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PharmaPoint: Colorectal Cancer - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023

Summary

GlobalData has released its new PharmaPoint Country Evaluation report, “PharmaPoint: Colorectal Cancer - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023”. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of mortality among cancer patients in the world and is the third most diagnosed cancer globally, and thus represents a huge burden on healthcare systems. This report focuses on the current treatment landscape, unmet needs, current pipeline, and commercial opportunities in the colorectal cancer market, with coverage of multiple settings of the disease including neoadjuvant/adjuvant, first-, second-, third-line KRAS wild-type and mutation-positive, and fourth-line metastatic. In terms of targeted treatments, the metastatic CRC treatment landscape is mature, including the branded treatments Avastin (bevacizumab), Avastin (cetuximab), and Vectibix (panitumumab), treatments that have extended the survival of metastatic patients compared to chemotherapy-only regimens. However, high unmet needs remain for the extension of survival of metastatic patients, and particularly those with KRAS mutation-positive disease, for whom the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitors Avastin and Vectibix are not recommended.

GlobalData calculates branded CRC therapeutics to have generated $259m in sales in China in 2013. GlobalData expects growth of the Chinese CRC market to be driven by increasing incidence of the disease in urban populations, increased numbers of people covered by private health insurance, increased access to branded biologicals, and uptake of pipeline agents. However, growth will be stymied by patent expiration of Avastin, the market-leading drug in the Chinese CRC market. GlobalData anticipates the launch of bevacizumab biosimilars in China from 2019 onwards.

Scope

- Overview of CRC including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in China including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for the top drugs in China from 2013-2023.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the China CRC market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for CRC
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2013-2023 in China.

Table Of Contents

PharmaPoint: Colorectal Cancer - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 9
2 Introduction 10
2.1 Catalyst 10
2.2 Related Reports 11
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 12
3 Disease Overview 13
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 13
3.1.1 Etiology 13
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 15
3.2 Clinical Staging 16
3.3 Symptoms 17
4 Disease Management 19
4.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview 19
4.1.1 Screening and Diagnosis 19
4.1.2 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs 22
4.1.3 Clinical Practice 23
4.2 China 30
4.2.1 Screening and Diagnosis 31
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 31
5 Competitive Assessment 33
5.1 Overview 33
5.2 Product Profiles — Major Brands 34
5.2.1 Avastin (Bevacizumab) 34
5.2.2 Erbitux (Cetuximab) 38
5.2.3 Vectibix (Panitumumab) 42
5.2.4 Stivarga (Regorafenib) 46
5.2.5 Zaltrap (Ziv-Aflibrcept) 50
5.2.6 Lonsurf (TAS-102) 53
5.2.7 Xeloda (Capecitabine) 57
6 Unmet Need and Opportunity 61
6.1 Overview 61
6.2 Therapies That Provide Substantial Overall Survival Benefit for Metastatic Patients 62
6.2.1 Unmet Need 62
6.2.2 Gap Analysis 64
6.2.3 Opportunity 64
6.3 Targeted Treatments for KRAS and BRAF Mutaton-Positive Patients 66
6.3.1 Unmet Need 66
6.3.2 Gap Analysis 67
6.3.3 Opportunity 67
6.4 Effective Neoadjuvant/Adjuvant Therapies for High Risk Resectable Disease 68
6.4.1 Unmet Need 68
6.4.2 Gap Analysis 69
6.4.3 Opportunity 69
6.5 Tolerable Later-Line Therapies For Chemotherapy-Resistant Patients 70
6.5.1 Unmet Need 70
6.5.2 Gap Analysis 70
6.5.3 Opportunity 71
7 Pipeline Assessment 72
7.1 Overview 72
7.2 Promising Approaches in Early-Stage Development 73
7.2.1 Anti-Angiopoietin-2 Inhibitors 73
7.2.2 Strategies for BRAF Mutation-Positive Disease 75
7.2.3 Strategies for KRAS-Mutation Positive Disease 81
7.2.4 Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors 85
8 Market Outlook 90
8.1 China 90
8.1.1 Forecast 90
8.1.2 Key Events 94
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues 94
8.1.4 Drivers and Barriers 97
9 Appendix 101
9.1 Bibliography 101
9.2 Abbreviations 119
9.3 Methodology 124
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 124
9.4.1 Diagnosed Colorectal Cancer Patients 124
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 125
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 125
9.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiration Dates 125
9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 126
9.4.6 Average Body Weight and Surface Area 126
9.4.7 Individual Drug Assumptions 127
9.4.8 Generic Erosion 129
9.5 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for this Report 130
9.6 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey 131
9.7 About the Authors 132
9.7.1 Analyst 132
9.7.2 Global Head of Healthcare 133
9.8 About GlobalData 134
9.9 Disclaimer 134

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: TNM and Staging Classification System for CRC 17
Table 2: Symptoms of Colorectal Cancer 18
Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for CRC 22
Table 4: Most-Prescribed Neoadjuvant/Adjuvant Regimens for Early-Stage CRC in the US Markets, 2013 23
Table 5: Most Prescribed Targeted Therapies for Metastatic CRC by Segment in the US Markets, 2013 23
Table 6: Country Profile - China 30
Table 7: Leading Treatments for CRC, 2014 34
Table 8: Product Profile — Avastin 36
Table 9: Avastin SWOT Analysis, 2014 38
Table 10: Product Profile — Erbitux 40
Table 11: Erbitux SWOT Analysis, 2014 42
Table 12: Product Profile - Vectibix 44
Table 13: Vectibix SWOT Analysis, 2014 45
Table 14: Product Profile - Stivarga 48
Table 15: Stivarga SWOT Analysis, 2014 49
Table 16: Product Profile - Zaltrap 51
Table 17: Zaltrap SWOT Analysis, 2014 53
Table 18: Product Profile - Lonsurf 55
Table 19: Lonsurf SWOT Analysis, 2014 57
Table 20: Product Profile - Xeloda 58
Table 21: Unmet Need and Opportunity in CRC 62
Table 22: Anti-Angiopoietin-2 Inhibitors in Development 73
Table 23: Early-stage Strategies for BRAF Mutation-Positive CRC 76
Table 24: Early-stage Strategies for KRAS Mutation-Positive CRC 82
Table 25: Anti-PD1 and Anti-PDL1 Drugs in Early-Stage Development for CRC 86
Table 26: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Colorectal Cancer in China, 2013-2023 92
Table 27: Key Events Impacting Sales for CRC in China, 2014 94
Table 28: CRC Market Drivers and Barriers, 2014 94
Table 29: China CRC Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2014 97
Table 30: Key Launch Dates 125
Table 31: Key Patent Expiries 126
Table 32: Average Body Weight and Surface Area 126
Table 33: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country 131

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Sales for Colorectal Cancer in China by Drug Class, 2013-2023 93

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