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Electric Vehicles and Fuel Cell Vehicles: Technologies and Global Markets

  • January 2015
  • 318 pages
  • BCC Research
Report ID: 2584390

Summary

Table of Contents

This BCC Research report provides analysis, starting with a summary of the power storage technology involved, detailed profiles of major power source makers, and well-defined consensus, optimistic and pessimistic market scenarios for units sold, value of these units, and prices.

Use this report to:
- Learn about global legislative incentives, including research and development subsidies, manufacturing subsidies and tax breaks, and purchase and operating incentives.
- Receive information about the optimistic, consensus, and pessimistic market prediction scenarios where appropriate.
- Identify leading companies and analyze the market
- Learn about the status and recent events for power source maker companies.

Highlights
- The global electric vehicle (EV) market was worth over $73.0 billion in 2014. This market is expected to reach roughly $109.8 billion by 2019, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% from 2014 to 2019.
- The global market for pure EVs totaled $25.0 billion in 2014 and is expected to reach about $44.2 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of 12.1% from 2014 to 2019.
- The global market for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) reached about $40.6 billion in 2014 and should reach about $54.8 billion in 2019, demonstrating a CAGR of 6.2% from 2014 to 2019.

Introduction & Scope

INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Electric vehicles (EVs) have been a commercial reality for more than 100 years. This report author’s grandfather owned a thriving business that provided Exide lead-acid
battery packs to 1920s EV users. Shortly thereafter, inexpensive gasoline and an ever-increasing desire for performance ended widespread EV use. Oil shortages and an
increased concern for the environment began to revive the industry in the 1970s, but wide adoption of various types of EVs always seemed just beyond the horizon—as soon
as gasoline cost more than $1 a gallon, or $2, or $4; or as soon as batteries improved to the point at which they could power a car for 40 miles; or as soon as batteries could
be recharged in less than six hours.

All these technological and market forces were resolved or exceeded, and during the first five years of the 21st century, the lead-acid battery-powered EV market began a
slow, steady period of growth. The second five years saw widespread use of nickel hydride battery-powered hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), the commercial production of
pure battery-powered EVs in many niche markets, very wide adoption of (usually) lead-acid battery-powered scooters, and commercial-scale demonstrations of fuel cell
vehicles.

Soon it was determined that HEVs could be turned into nickel metal hydride or lithium-ion battery-powered “plug-ins” that could be recharged by both the vehicle’s internal combustion engine, as well as a battery charger plugged into utility electric power. Of course, the original approach to the plug-in was a “pure” EV that had no internal combustion engine at all, just a motor and some type of battery bank. But this new approach resulted in an entirely new class of vehicle: the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) or the “extended range EV,” which has many of the advantages of both battery power and internal combustion power.

Now electric vehicles include passenger vehicles, scooters and buses as well as various niche markets. State-of-the-art batteries have also allowed a growing niche markets for trucks, buses, smaller electric scooters or “Segway”-type vehicles. A whole new market for “low-velocity” or “neighborhood electric vehicles” includes everything from
relatively low-tech, street-ready golf carts to advanced concept vehicles like General Motors’ Electric Networked-Vehicle (EN-V).

Surprisingly, the majority of the world’s EVs are the electric scooters, motorcycles and personal mobility devices sold in the People’s Republic of China. Even in the age of
advanced lithium-ion and lithium-ion polymer cells, most of these are still powered by lead-acid batteries. There is a drive to expand this market throughout the Far East,
especially into India.

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
The global market for electric vehicle power sources is continuing to grow in most market sectors. The long predicted and explosive growth was blunted by the global
recession, the generally lower than anticipated gasoline prices, relatively isolated safety concerns and, in some cases, technology that has not always lived up to expectations. On the other hand, the foundation for much wider EV use is now well established, and there are well-financed private and government-backed plans for the
introduction of large numbers of next-generation vehicles. As the market for battery-powered vehicles grows, the emerging market for fuel cell-powered vehicles is
poised to breakout into wider use. Even as street-ready proton exchange membrane fuel cells hit the roads, some fundamental shifting in hydrocarbon recovery is making
natural gas more competitive with gasoline and diesel fuels.

With these types of opposing trends and developments in play, it is more important than ever to have access to an informed analysis of the industry’s status, scenarios,
and ultimately, realistic assessment of the industry’s fortunes. This report will provide this analysis, starting with a summary of the power storage technology involved, then
detailed profiles of major power source makers, and finally with well-defined consensus, optimistic and pessimistic market scenarios for units sold, value of these units, and
prices.

INTENDED AUDIENCE
This report is intended to provide a unique analysis of the broadly defined global electric vehicle and fuel cell vehicle markets, and will be of interest to all types of automakers, manufacturers of batteries, battery chargers and fuel cells. It also will be valuable to current and existing electrical vehicle users and competitors. This report also can provide valuable information in terms of assessing investment in particular technologies and, therefore, should benefit investors directly or indirectly.

Automakers and power source suppliers also may find market trends of interest when considering the establishment of growth strategies. BCC Research wishes to thank
those companies, government agencies and university researchers that contributed information for this report.

SCOPE OF REPORT
After decades of expensive development and false starts, the world is finally ready for electric vehicles. As defined by this report, the term “electric vehicles” includes
commercial approaches such as pure battery-powered vehicles, plug-in hybrids, hybrid internal combustion/battery, range extending, and fuel cell vehicles, as well as vehicles powered by developmental power sources such as supercapacitors and flywheel-powered. In addition to cars and trucks, this report considers motorcycles,
scooters, buses, neighborhood electric vehicles, military vehicles and locomotives.

This report details the actuals for 2009 and 2013, and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) projections for 2014 through 2019 for the North American, European, Far Eastern and Rest-of-World markets. Power source sales and values are provided under consensus, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. A patent analysis and discussion for power sources and vehicle components describes where research is performed and emphasizes intellectual property issues.

As defined by BCC Research for this report, electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles include the following:
- Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).
- Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
- Electric vehicles (pure EVs).

Specific types of vehicles using these batteries include:
- Passenger vehicles (sedans, microcars, SUVs, crossover SUVs, pickup trucks, sports cars).
- Low-velocity (golf carts, neighborhood electric vehicles, personal mobility devices).
- Scooters (two-wheelers, motorcycles, some three-wheelers).
- Buses.
- Commercial/industrial (material handling equipment, burden carriers, forklifts, trucks).
- Niche (military, locomotives).
These market sectors are defined, leading companies are identified and the markets analyzed (including a five-year market forecast). Finally, status and recent events for
power source maker companies are provided in the “Company Profiles” section.

Regions covered include:
- North America: Canada and the U.S.
- Far East: Japan, China, India, Indonesia, etc.
- Europe: Western Europe.
- Rest of World (ROW): South America, Mexico, Central America, Africa, Middle East, Australia, New Zealand, other Pacific nations, Russia, Eastern Europe and Turkey.

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