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Annual Renewable Energy Outlook 2014

  • December 2014
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan

Growing Cost-Competitiveness Drives Market Opportunities

Renewable energy has made strong advances in the power generation fuel mix in many developed and developing nations in the past decade. Energy-hungry nations are increasingly turning to renewables in order to meet their rapidly increasing demand. While some better established sources of renewable power, such as small hydro, biomass, wind, and increasingly solar PV (photovoltaic), are supported in a more concerted manner, niche renewable energy sources such as geothermal and concentrated solar power (CSP) are also on the rise where the natural conditions are suitable. The study focuses on hydro, wind, solar PV, CSP, biomass and waste, geothermal, and marine power globally, highlighting key trends and developments in 10 regions.

Key Findings
Renewable energy installations in 2013 saw the continued, gradual shift in market power to emerging economies where economic growth and revised energy priorities will drive a sustained increase in the adoption of renewable energy.

The cost of renewable energy has declined dramatically in recent years. Overall, the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are estimated to have dropped by % between 2008 and 2013, making solar more competitive with fossil-fired power and driving accelerated adoption rates. Investments in renewable energy have declined in recent years, driven by falling equipment costs and weaknesses in key regions such as parts of Europe and the United States. Hydro power growth is increasingly driven by China ( % of new capacity in 2013), however, other key markets include Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam, India, and Russia. Pumped storage investments in Europe have started to slow down, but hydro rehabilitation projects will become more important in mature economies. Global capacity will rise from gigawatts (GW) in 2012 to GW in 2025.

The wind power market is entering a more mature phase following a poor 2013, where weakness in Europe and the United States was only partly offset by strong growth in China. Lower growth is expected for offshore wind than previously anticipated, as political support in Europe has declined. Small-scale wind turbines will open up new applications such as telecoms and general electrification. Global wind capacity will grow from GW in 2012 to GW in 2025.

Forecasts for solar PV capacity—expected to rise from 91 GW in 2012 to GW in 2025—have been upgraded further as declining costs boost investor interest. The shift away from Europe accelerated dramatically in 2013, when the region only represented % of new additions, compared to % in 2012 and % in 2011. Reduced policy support in parts of Europe will be offset by booming markets such as China, the United States, and Japan. The position of the Chinese manufacturers is becoming more entrenched.

Table Of Contents

Annual Renewable Energy Outlook 2014
Annual Renewable Energy Outlook 2014

Executive Summary
Key Findings


Scope and Coverage


Renewable Energy Overview
Renewable Energy—Introduction
Renewable Energy—Investment Trends
Renewable Energy—Installed Capacity Development by Technology
Renewable Energy—Shifting Technology Focus
Renewable Energy—Installed Capacity Development by Region
Renewable Energy—Evolving Regional Balance
Renewable Energy—Installed Capacity Excluding Hydro
Renewable Energy—Regional Balance Shift Excluding Hydro
Renewable Energy—Technology Highlights


Hydro Power
Hydro—Key Developments and Implications
Hydro—Technology Analysis and Trends
Hydro—Competitive Analysis and Market Structure
Hydro—Installed Capacity Map
Hydro—Installed Capacity Development
Hydro—Role in the Fuel Mix
Hydro—Growth Rates
Hydro—Shifting Regional Balance
Hydro—Regional Trends and Developments


Wind Power
Wind—Key Developments and Implications
Wind—Technology Analysis and Trends
Wind—Competitive Analysis and Market Structure
Wind—Installed Capacity Map
Wind—Installed Capacity Development
Wind—Role in the Fuel Mix
Wind—Growth Rates
Wind—Shifting Regional Balance
Wind—Regional Trends and Developments


Solar Photovoltaics (PV)
Solar PV—Key Developments and Implications
Solar PV—Technology Analysis and Trends
Solar PV—Competitive Analysis and Market Structure
Solar PV—Installed Capacity Map
Solar PV—Installed Capacity Development
Solar PV—Role in the Fuel Mix
Solar PV—Growth Rates
Solar PV—Shifting Regional Balance
Solar PV—Regional Trends and Developments


Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
CSP—Key Developments and Implications
CSP—Technology Analysis and Trends
CSP—Competitive Analysis and Market Structure
CSP—Installed Capacity Map
CSP—Installed Capacity Development
CSP—Role in the Fuel Mix
CSP—Growth Rates
CSP—Shifting Regional Balance
CSP—Regional Trends and Developments


Bioenergy and Waste
Bioenergy and Waste—Key Developments and Implications
Bioenergy and Waste—Technology Analysis and Trends
Bioenergy and Waste—Competitive Analysis and Market Structure
Bioenergy and Waste—Installed Capacity Map
Bioenergy and Waste—Installed Capacity Development
Bioenergy and Waste—Role in the Fuel Mix
Bioenergy and Waste—Growth Rates
Bioenergy and Waste—Shifting Regional Balance
Bioenergy and Waste—Regional Trends and Developments


Geothermal Power
Geothermal—Key Developments and Implications
Geothermal—Technology Analysis and Trends
Geothermal—Competitive Analysis and Market Structure
Geothermal—Installed Capacity Map
Geothermal—Installed Capacity Development
Geothermal—Role in the Fuel Mix
Geothermal—Growth Rates
Geothermal—Shifting Regional Balance
Geothermal—Regional Trends and Developments


Marine Power
Marine—Key Developments and Implications
Marine—Technology Analysis and Trends
Marine—Competitive Analysis and Market Structure
Marine—Installed Capacity Map
Marine—Installed Capacity Development
Marine—Role in the Fuel Mix
Marine—Growth Rates
Marine—Shifting Regional Balance
Marine—Regional Trends and Developments
Legal Disclaimer


Regional Definitions


The Frost and Sullivan Story
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Industry Convergence
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