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Niger Telecommunications Report 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 89 pages

BMI View: We hold a positive and favourable outlook for the Nigerian mobile market and thetelecommunications sector as a whole. Mobile penetration topped 82% in Q315 and broadband penetrationstill remains very low. There remains significant demand for traditional voice and data services that hasgone thus far untapped. A rapidly maturing tower market will enable operators to extend networks into ruralareas more cost effectively, while allocation of wholesale Infraco licences will ensure investment into nextgeneration broadband networks. However, there are important industry and external risks to smooth growth.Nigeria's government has twice postponed 4G spectrum auctions and has requested a report investigatingthe sale of incumbent telecoms operator NITEL, which will delay investment into wireline and mobile datanetworks. Meanwhile, power shortages, a weaker economic outlook amid lower oil prices and ongoingterrorist attacks all pose additional operational challenges and downside risk to our growth outlook.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- The market posted significant growth in 9M15 and ended Q315 with a total of 150.5mn mobilesubscribers, a penetration rate of over 82.5%.

- A total of 11.57mn new subscribers were added in 9M15, beating our initial estimates. We believe theoverall mobile figure is likely to jump to 168.2mn by the end of 2016 before ending our forecast periodwith an impressive 196.2mn in 2019. We do nevertheless caution that there could still exist a significantamount of inactive connections in the market that could pose a downside risk to our forecast.

- The mandatory registration process enforced by the government has spelled significant trouble for marketleader, MTN. MTN failed to deactivate around 5mn unregistered accounts by the August 2015 deadline.MTN was originally fine USD5.2bn, a sum which was later reduced to USD3.9bn.

Table Of Contents

Niger Telecommunications Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019) 15
Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Table: Sub-saharan Africa Telecoms RRI - Q116 19
Market Overview 21
Market Share 22
ARPU 26
Networks 27
Mobile Content 32
Table: Selected Licensed Mobile Money Providers 33
Wireline Voice and Broadband Market 36
Table: Nigeria Fixed-Line Market 37
Table: Nigeria Wireline Developments, 2013-2015 41
Regulatory Development 42
Table: Nigeria - Division Of Regulatory Responsibility 42
Competition 46
Competitive Landscape 50
Table: Key Players - Telecoms Sector 50
Table: Nigeria Mobile Market 50
Table: MTN Nigeria 51
Table: Globacom 53
Table: Airtel 54
Table: Etisalat 55
Table: Visafone 56
Company Profile 57
NITEL 57
MTN 61
Airtel 66
Globacom 70
Etisalat Nigeria 74
Demographic Forecast 78
Demographic Outlook 78
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025) 79
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025) 79
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025) 80
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025) 80
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025) 81
Glossary 83
Table: Glossary Of Terms 83
Methodology 85
Industry Forecast Methodology 85
Sources 87
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 87
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 88
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 89

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