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Future Telecom - Trends and Scenarios for 2025

  • December 2014
  • -
  • IDATE
  • -
  • 45 pages

This report projects the challenges for telecommunications operators for the 2025 horizon.
It analyzes use and market trends as well as ongoing structural changes in the industry to show a long-term vision of the role of operators.
Finally, it offers a market calculation for 2025, according to three scenarios.
The countries analyzed are: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. Europe and World areas are also analyzed.

Table Of Contents

Future Telecom - Trends and Scenarios for 2025
1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology
1.1. Trends and Scenarios for 2025
1.2. Trend presentation principle

3. Introduction
3.1. Economic Dynamics and Diverse Demographics
3.2. Contrasting Dynamics
3.3. The Telecom Industry Challenged by OTT Providers
3.4. The Explosion in Traffic
3.5. ... in certain segments in particular

4. Technology Trends
4.1. Network Deployment and Modernization
4.2. With a Focus on IT
4.3. Spectrum Management, Responsible for the Performance of Future Mobile Networks

5. Market Trends
5.1. The Realization of ATAWADAC
5.2. Pressure towards "free" .... while continuing Paid Services ... or even Premium Services
5.3. Higher speeds enable an expansion in the range of B2C services
5.4. Customization encourages loyalty and siphons off new revenue

6. Industry Trends
6.1. Pressure from OTT on telecom's walled gardens
6.2. Disintermediation of the value chain creating new opportunities
6.3. The beginning of a new merger/acquisition cycle

7. Change Scenarios
7.1. The variables that structure the scenarios
7.2. Three scenarios for the operator business in 2025
7.3. Structural variables
7.4. Deployment of NGN networks
7.5. Positioning of operators
7.6. Quantification of scenarios: Evaluating operator revenue

Tables and figures

1. Executive Summary
• Presentation of 2025 operator scenarios

3. Introduction
• Economic growth forecasts (in volume), in 2015
• Population Changes, 2013-2021
• Growth in the Telecom Market per region, 2008-2014
• Growth in the Telecom Market per market, 2008-2014
• Comparison of the changes in telecom and OTT revenue, 2010-2014
• Average growth rate in telecom and OTT revenue, 2011-2014
• Change in Internet subscribers and users worldwide, 2013-2018
• Change in IP traffic, 2013-2018
• Change in M2M units worldwide, 2013-2018
• Annual growth in IP traffic per region, 2014-2018
• Annual growth in IP traffic per application in the consumer market, 2014-18
• Annual growth in IP traffic per access network, 2014-2018

4. Technology Trends
• Investment in mobile networks
• The significant capacity promises of fiber
• Radio site sharing at the group level
• Unloaded traffic share
• Cloud-based radio architecture
• Licensed Shared Access concept
• Multiple expectations around 5G

5. Market Trends
• Average time spent per day in the United States, 2012-2014
• Sale of connected devices globally, per device type, 2009-2014
• Broadband coverage in the United States
• Share of broadband households subscribed to OTT video services in the United States
• Changes in the mobile package price index in France
• Breakdown of Netflix subscribers, in 2010 and 2013
• Changes in TWC and Comcast video subscribers in the United States
• Top Tier offers from TWC and Verizon
• Triple play offer from Portugal Telecom
• Swisscom Mobile offer
• Range of video services from Comcast and Verizon
• T-Mobile: range of mobile services segmented by speed and volume
• Verizon: range of mobile data services segmented by volume
• MyRepublic Singapore: Internet access service with low latency for online gamers
• Joyn screenshots
• Digital Home offer from Comcast
• Visual, example of personal profiles on a VOD service

6. Industry Trends
• Increasing role of OTT in the pay-TV market in Italy
• Netflix on the Tivo platform
• Set-top box migration strategy from Tivo
• Changes in standards for set-top boxes
• Distribution of messaging revenue between OTT and telecoms in 2012 and 2016
• The value chain according to the scenarios
• Development of a two-sided model thanks to a combination of design and technology to address these markets
• Merger/acquisition cycles
• Major mergers-acquisitions in 2014

7. Change Scenarios
• Changes in operator revenues according to the scenarios, 2013-2025, worldwide
• Changes in operator revenues according to the scenarios, 2013-2025, USA
• Changes in operator revenues according to the scenarios, 2013-2025, France

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