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Telecoms service revenue will decline in Central and Eastern Europe during 2014–2019. The shift from voice to data services will accelerate because 3G smartphone take-up will be solid in most countries and competition will make data plans more affordable. This report examines trends and forecasts in 6 countries and the region as a whole.

Table Of Contents

The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: interim forecast update (6 countries) 2014-2019
Table of contents
5.Executive summary
6.Telecoms service revenue will decline in Central and Eastern Europe during 2014-2019 as growth peaks in Russia and slows in Turkey
7.Mobile handset data presents the highest growth by far because smartphones and LTE take-up will offer monetisation opportunities
8.3G smartphone momentum looks solid in most countries, but LTE take-up will be slow because devices are expensive and coverage is limited
9.Key regional changes since previous forecast: Major upward revisions to smartphone and FTTH/B connections, but downward revisions for voice
10.Forecast revision: Service revenue for 2019 is unchanged, but the shift from voice (-EUR2 billion) to data (+EUR2 billion) is faster than expected
11.Individual country forecasts
12.Czech Republic: Service revenue will decline faster than expected as MVNO competition intensifies and voice becomes a commodity
13.Poland: Our service revenue forecast is unchanged, but faster-than-expected LTE take-up will drive stronger data revenue growth
14.Russia: Increased smartphone take-up is boosting contract revenue, and the migration from DSL to FTTH/B is accelerating
15.Turkey: LTE will arrive in 2015 and drive handset data revenue, while fixed broadband ARPU will remain high
16.About the authors and Analysys Mason
17.About the authors
18.About Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2019
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2013 and 2019
Figure 5: Summary of major changes compared with our August 2014 forecast for Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013 and 2019
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2019
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2019
Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2009-2019
Figure 10: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Czech Republic
Figure 11: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Poland, 2009-2019
Figure 12: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Poland
Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Russia, 2009-2019
Figure 14: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Russia
Figure 15: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2009-2019
Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Turkey

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