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  5. > Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 91 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We forecast first oil in Uganda in 2020 with risks increasingly to the downside given limitedprogress on the key infrastructure projects required for first oil. A series of limitations, most notably theinfrastructure projects required for oil exports, will see upstream developments proceed slowly, andpreclude oil production until 2020 at the earliest. This is far behind the government's official oil target of2016/2017.

-With reserves of 2.5bn bbl; of crude, Uganda has Sub-Saharan Africa's fourth largest crude reserves,behind Nigeria, Angola and South Sudan. There is limited short-term upside risk to reserves: currentexploration and appraisal campaigns are reaching an end and new exploration will wait until moreconcrete progress is made towards developing existing discoveries. The low oil prices will do little tomotivate short-term exploration in this market where oil production is still years away. Limited interest inthe ongoing licensing round will delay short-to-medium term new exploration.

Table Of Contents

Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Companies Expressing Interest In Bidding 15
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Upstream Project Database 17
Upstream Production - Oil 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Applications Made For Production Licences In Uganda 20
Oil Production Forecast And Downside Risks 26
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 27
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 28
Upstream Production - Gas 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 30
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 30
Refining 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels Consumption 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uganda 2020-2025) 38
Gas Consumption 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2020-2025) 40
Trade - Oil 41
Crude Oil Trade 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2020) 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025) 43
Refined Fuels Trade 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2019) 45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025) 46
Industry Risk Reward Index 47
Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 50
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 53
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 53
Uganda - Risk/Reward Index 55
Market Overview 56
Uganda Energy Market Overview 56
Regulatory Structure 56
Political Regime 58
Fiscal Regime 59
Table: Uganda Fiscal Regime 59
Licensing Regime 60
Table: Uganda Licensing Regime 60
Licensing Rounds 60
Table: Current Licences 60
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 62
Oil Refineries 62
Table: Uganda Refinery 62
Oil Storage Facilities 62
Table: Uganda Main Oil Storage Facilities 62
Oil Pipeline 63
Table: Uganda Oil Pipelines 63
Company Profile 64
CNOOC 64
Total 67
Tullow Oil 70
Regional Overview 75
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 75
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 83
Glossary 84
Table: Glossary Of Terms 84
Methodology 86
Industry Forecast Methodology 86
Source 88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 88
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 90
Table: Weighting 91

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