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Italy Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 106 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Italy's oil and gas sector will continue to suffer from a gradual depletion of its hydrocarbonreserves and the rapid downsizing of the country's ailing refining sector. While an active exploration sceneand a gradually improving regulatory environment are positive signs, we believe these improvements willtake some years to garner more substantial industry changes. This is particularly the case in the context oflow oil and gas prices over the coming years.

Key Forecasts

- Italy's oil production is expected to receive a significant boost from the Tempa Rossa field, which is setto come online in late 2018. Nonetheless, this will not suffice to achieve the government's goal ofdoubling oil production by 2020. Rapidly declining reserves are expected to push oil output graduallylower in the post-2020 period.

- A deteriorating downstream sector in Italy, as elsewhere in Europe, has seen large refining capacity andrefined products production cuts over the past decade. Further cuts are to be expected, given continuedcapacity oversupply and weak demand growth.

- Economic difficulties are expected to continue suppressing oil consumption in Italy, which we seegradually declining till 2016, before stagnating or very slowly increasing until the end of our forecastperiod. Distillates consumption as a proportion of total refined products consumption will continue tomake headway, as the share of gasoline consumption falls, due to the continued dieselisation of thevehicle fleet.

- With limited domestic crude oil production, Italy will remain a large net importer of crude oil. However,net import requirements have fallen substantially and will continue to fall due to large cuts in refiningcapacity. On the other hand, the refining capacity cuts will see continued decline in net refined productsexports, which should fall to near zero by the end of our forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Italy Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Oil Production (Italy 2014-2019) 19
Table: Oil Production (Italy 2020-2025) 19
Upstream Production - Gas 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Gas Production (Italy 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Italy 2020-2025) 22
Refining 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Italy 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Italy 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Italy 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Italy 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Italy 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Crude Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Italy 2014-2019) 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025) 35
Refined Products 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Italy 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Italy 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk Reward Index 42
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe 42
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 44
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 47
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Italy - Risk/Reward Index 51
Upstream Index 51
Downstream Index 51
Market Overview 52
Italy Energy Market Overview 52
Regulatory Structure 52
Fiscal Regime 53
Table: Italy Oil And Gas Fiscal Regime 53
Licensing Regime 53
Table: Italy Licensing Regime 53
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 54
Oil Refineries 54
Table: Refineries In Italy 54
Service Stations 55
Oil Storage Facilities 55
Oil Terminals/Ports 56
LNG Terminals 56
Table: Italy - LNG Terminals 58
Gas Storage Facilities 59
Gas Pipelines 59
Competitive Landscape 63
Competitive Landscape Summary 63
Company Profile 65
Eni 65
ERG 73
Po Valley Energy 77
Royal Dutch Shell 82
Other Summaries 85
Regional Overview 91
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 91
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 91
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 92
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 93
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 94
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 95
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 96
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 97
Glossary 99
Table: Glossary Of Terms 99
Methodology 101
Industry Forecast Methodology 101
Source 103
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 103
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 105
Table: Weighting 106

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