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Emerging market currencies continue to be hit by an unpleasant cocktail of concerns over China's growth prospects, sliding commodity prices and the looming onset of tighter US monetary policy, while the Chinese move to devalue the CNY (albeit modestly) in August has added to the uncertainty. Our 'vulnerability' scorecard suggests which currencies and economies could be worst affected if there were to be a further marked deterioration in the global economic and financial situation.

The scorecard continues to show that Turkey is the most 'vulnerable' of the 13 economies covered by the analysis, scoring badly in most key areas such as high inflation, reliance on non-FDI capital inflows, scale of external financing and continued rapid credit expansion. The latter could be a particularly destabilising feature if the global economy suffered a major setback; Turkey's credit to GDP ratio has soared from under 30% in 2007 to 75% in mid-2015. There is a considerable risk that many of these loans could go 'bad' if the economy slumped. In addition, Turks are holding an increasingly large share of their savings in fx deposits rather than TRY.

The next three most vulnerable countries - Russia, South Africa and Brazil - are the same as in June albeit Brazil has swapped position with South Africa, helped by a sharp slowing in credit growth and a more competitive real exchange rate. Russia and Brazil score very poorly on key economic criteria - a dismal growth and inflation performance, together with major deterioration in their 'twin' external and fiscal deficits - while South Africa is largely hampered by poor external factors (though its other fundamentals are hardly good apart from a stable credit ratio).

With the exception of Malaysia, most of the Asian economies are among the least vulnerable, aided by generally solid external and fiscal situations and low inflation. Malaysia's vulnerability is high because of its external indebtedness and sharp fall in its external surplus since 2011. Another factor exacerbating Malaysia's fragility is that it - along with Mexico, China, Turkey and Indonesia - experienced a large rise in portfolio inflows during 2012-14, exposing it to capital outflows now that investors are increasingly wary about risky assets.

Table Of Contents

Weekly Economic Briefings > Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing > Global
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the product listed. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.


Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefings


  1. Lead Article - Four- or five-page briefing of events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon topical economic/political issues and data releases. The lead article offers both transnational and country specific highlights, with particular emphasis on changes in Oxford Economics' outlook/forecasts.

  2. Charts and graphs support the lead article, and add detail to the analysis. Country specific and/or Emerging Markets charts typically include a number of the followingand#58; GDP; domestic demand and exports; Short-term interest rates; FDI inflows and outflows; FDI inflows as % of GDP; Manufacturing PMI; Policy interest rates; Interest rates and WPI inflation; Consumer prices; FDI and portfolio inflows; Monthly trade balances, etc.

  3. Latest Data in Detail - A chart summarizing recent data releases including relevant comparisons to the previous month for the following countriesand#58; Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey, Taiwan, Poland, Argentina, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, South Africa, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Korea, South Africa, and Chile.

  4. An Events Chart summarizing the key rate/outcome of monetary policy meetings held in the past week.

    1. Charts highlighting economic developments and changes in outlook are presented by regionand#58; Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, and the Rest of World

    2. Charts offer time-series data, typically for ten years, on several of the following indicatorsand#58; index of monthly economic activity, industrial output, GDP, trade, real exchange rates, inflation, property prices, employment, interest rates, etc, typically in nominal terms but in some cases are indexed and/or adjusted for inflation. Some of the charts also offer transnational comparisons, for example the trade balances of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, or inflation rates. The measurements, for example an index, percentage, real or nominal levels, % changes, are identified as well as the source of the data. Charts highlighting Financial developments on several of the following indicators are included and presented as time-series data, typically 1997 to 2011and#58; portfolio flows; foreign exchange reserves; foreign direct investment flows; real effective exchange rates; bank lending to developing economies; Equity Markets; Exchange rates vs. US$; Exchange rates vs. Euros; etc.

  5. Industrial Production - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countriesand#58; China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

  6. Consumer Prices - table showing monthly percentage % changes on the previous year for the following countriesand#58; China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

  7. Exports in US$ - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countriesand#58; China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

  8. Imports in US$ - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countriesand#58; China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

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