1. Market Research
  2. > Retail Market Trends

Weekly Economic Briefings > Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing > Global

  • September 2015
  • 14 pages
  • Oxford Economics
Report ID: 2761059

Summary

Table of Contents

Search Inside

Emerging market currencies continue to be hit by an unpleasant cocktail of concerns over China's growth prospects, sliding commodity prices and the looming onset of tighter US monetary policy, while the Chinese move to devalue the CNY (albeit modestly) in August has added to the uncertainty. Our 'vulnerability' scorecard suggests which currencies and economies could be worst affected if there were to be a further marked deterioration in the global economic and financial situation.

The scorecard continues to show that Turkey is the most 'vulnerable' of the 13 economies covered by the analysis, scoring badly in most key areas such as high inflation, reliance on non-FDI capital inflows, scale of external financing and continued rapid credit expansion. The latter could be a particularly destabilising feature if the global economy suffered a major setback; Turkey's credit to GDP ratio has soared from under 30% in 2007 to 75% in mid-2015. There is a considerable risk that many of these loans could go 'bad' if the economy slumped. In addition, Turks are holding an increasingly large share of their savings in fx deposits rather than TRY.

The next three most vulnerable countries - Russia, South Africa and Brazil - are the same as in June albeit Brazil has swapped position with South Africa, helped by a sharp slowing in credit growth and a more competitive real exchange rate. Russia and Brazil score very poorly on key economic criteria - a dismal growth and inflation performance, together with major deterioration in their 'twin' external and fiscal deficits - while South Africa is largely hampered by poor external factors (though its other fundamentals are hardly good apart from a stable credit ratio).

With the exception of Malaysia, most of the Asian economies are among the least vulnerable, aided by generally solid external and fiscal situations and low inflation. Malaysia's vulnerability is high because of its external indebtedness and sharp fall in its external surplus since 2011. Another factor exacerbating Malaysia's fragility is that it - along with Mexico, China, Turkey and Indonesia - experienced a large rise in portfolio inflows during 2012-14, exposing it to capital outflows now that investors are increasingly wary about risky assets.

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 60 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 25,000 trusted sources
  • Single User License — provides access to the report by one individual.
  • Department License — allows you to share the report with up to 5 users
  • Site License — allows the report to be shared amongst all employees in a defined country
  • Corporate License — allows for complete access, globally.

Ahmad helps you find the right report:

Testimonials

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

We were impressed with the support that ReportLinker’s research specialists’ team provided. The report we purchased was useful and provided exactly what we want.

Category Manager at
Ikea

ReportLinker gave access to reliable and useful data while avoiding dispersing resources and spending too much time on unnecessary research.

Executive Director at
PwC Advisory

The customer service was fast, responsive, and 100% professional in all my dealings (...) If we have more research needs, I'll certainly prioritize working with ReportLinker!

Scott Griffith

Vice President Marketing at
Maurice Sporting Goods

The research specialist provided prompt, helpful instructions for accessing ReportLinker's product. He also followed up to make sure everything went smoothly and to ensure an easy transition to the next stage of my research

Jessica P Huffman

Research Associate at
American Transportation Research Institute

Excellent customer service. Very responsive and fast.

Director, Corporate Strategy at
Ingredion

I reached out to ReportLinker for a detailed market study on the Air Treatment industry. The quality of the report, the research specialist’s willingness to solve my queries exceeded my expectations. I would definitely recommend ReportLinker for in-depth industry information.

Mariana Mendoza

Global Platform Senior Manager at
Whirlpool Corporation

Thanks! I like what you've provided and will certainly come back if I need to do further research works.

Bee Hin Png

CEO at
LDR Pte Ltd

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers

Global Pates (Savory & Deli Foods) Market - Outlook to 2020: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • March 2017
  • by GlobalData

Global Pates (Savory & Deli Foods) Market - Outlook to 2020: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics Summary "Global Pates (Savory & Deli Foods) Market - Outlook to 2020: Market Size, Growth and Forecast ...

Global Pre-Packed Sandwiches (Savory & Deli Foods) Market - Outlook to 2020: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • March 2017
  • by GlobalData

Global Pre-Packed Sandwiches (Savory & Deli Foods) Market - Outlook to 2020: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics Summary "Global Pre-Packed Sandwiches (Savory & Deli Foods) Market - Outlook to 2020: ...

Global Self-Tan (Suncare) Market - Outlook to 2020: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • March 2017
  • by GlobalData

Global Self-Tan (Suncare) Market - Outlook to 2020: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics Summary "Global Self-Tan (Suncare) Market - Outlook to 2020: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics" is ...


Download Unlimited Documents from Trusted Public Sources

Retail Trade Markets in Finland

  • June 2017
    6 pages
  • Retail Trade  

  • Finland  

View report >

Flower Exports in Poland

  • June 2017
    2 pages
  • Flower  

    International T...  

  • Poland  

    Europe  

    World  

View report >

ref:plp2015

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.