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Global Economic Outlook 2015—Emerging Europe : A Short Term Pulse of Growth Opportunities

  • March 2015
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 53 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Executive Summary—Regional Highlights

Labor market reform remains top priority for the region. This will be instrumental to enhance business confidence and competitiveness of major emerging economies in Europe.

The Czech Republic
Lackluster growth in the eurozone region have hampered exports and the economy will remain vulnerable in the first two quarters of 2015, as well.
Hungary
Driven by strong monetary and fiscal stimulus, the Hungarian economy is growing at a stable pace and is expected to continue with the same trend in the first half of 2015.
Poland
The export-driven Polish economy is losing some pace due to sluggish external demand from eurozone, its key trading partner. However, improvement in manufacturing, stemmed by an improvement in domestic demand is expected to be a key growth driver in 2015.
Romania
Weakening of domestic demand has decelerated the economic growth of Romania in 2014. the situation will remain same in H1 2015, which in turn will witness low investment trends and sluggish exports.
Turkey
Sluggish growth continues in the region due to political instability, soaring high interest rates and weak exports to eurozone regions, Iraq and Russia. It is expected to be the same in 2015.
Ukraine
Economic growth remains sluggish in Ukraine due to the on-going violence. The country is expected to remain in recession in the first half of 2015. Significant economic reforms, easing down of military conflict should remain the new government’s prime focus in 2015.

Regional Growth Sentiment

•While domestic demand will drive growth in major countries in 2015, weaker Euro area recovery, need for reform policies and market instability in economies like Poland, Turkey, and Ukraine remain areas of concern.
•Improved exports and household consumption are expected to support the economic growth of The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania in 2015.
•Reforms in employment conditions remain top priority in 2015, which will be instrumental to enhance business confidence and competitiveness of major emerging economies in Europe.

Industry Outlook, 2015

•The improvement in manufacturing sector is expected to be a key growth driver in H1 2015 in Poland and in Turkey. The Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) registered an expansion in business condition with a reading above 50 in December 2014 in both the economies. This is due to an increase in output and new orders stemmed by an improving domestic demand.
•Reforms in the labor market, improvement in wage structure, and an improved level of public investment are the main targets of the Czech government in the initial quarters of 2015, which in turn will boost economic growth.
•Significant economic reforms, easing down of military conflict should remain the new Ukrainian government’s prime focus. The announcement of the agreement to resume natural gas deliveries between Ukraine and Russia also sends out a positive signal.

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