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Global Powertrain Outlook 2015 : Gasoline Technologies to Step up, EVs to Grow, and Fuel Cells to Re-emerge

  • March 2015
  • 76 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 2813812

Summary

Table of Contents

Key Findings of the Study

Diesel technologies may witness gradual decline in Europe, while advanced gasoline technologies and energy recovery systems continue to grow. EVs are set to witness high growth across regions.
Diesel Outlook in Europe: Higher taxes and penalties for polluting diesel vehicles, and parallel schemes to bring out cleaner vehicle and alternative propulsion systems to the road has led to the decline of diesel penetration by x to x % in Europe. The decline may not be drastic because consumer preferences for higher fuel economy and diesel fuel keeps CO2 emissions lower for OEM fleets. However, with increased penetration of direct injection, downsizing and boosting in gasoline engines, the decline is expected to be more drastic, unless clubbed with high efficiency NOx and PM filters.
Advanced Gasoline Technologies to see Boosted Uptake: While North America, Japan, and Europe continue to witness significant advancements in injection and combustion systems, developing markets like India and Brazil also will witness advanced technologies penetrating into the market. Direct injected, twin boosted gasoline engines have been fitted in B/C segments and have been receiving significant market acceptance. This trend is expected to continue in the short term as OEMs find economies of scale in developing markets through regional pricing strategies.
Surge of High-speed ATs and DCTs: High-speed DCTs are expected to penetrate about x % to x % of total transmission market this year, as OEMs look for more options to improve fuel economy. North America will lead this trend with x million to x million units of high-speed transmissions in 2015, close to x % of which will be 8-speed automatics.
Alternative Propulsion Outlook: Global sales of electric vehicles is expected to be nearly x million in 2015 with BEVs and PHEVs achieving significant growth, as OEMs are set to expand their public and proprietary charging networks. In certain regions like China, higher upfront purchase costs for select EVs are leading to sluggish sales. This is driving OEMs to launch more Fuel Cell vehicles during the short and medium terms. Countries like Japan are also mooting incentives for FCVs.
Energy Recovery Systems: As demand for fuel economy ascends, who will bank on energy-on-demand systems to stretch fuel savings to a few more percentage points. Variable displacement coolant pumps, thermo-electric energy generation, and other cost-effective advanced thermal management packages will be extensively used, both in conventional ICEs and vehicles with alternative propulsion systems.

Key Highlights of 2014

Diesel share witnessed marginal decline in Europe but grew slightly in North America. GDI and gasoline-boosting technologies saw significant growth(> x %) in NA. EVs continued on their growth path.

North America
Sales Outlook
•The North American sales reached close to x million, while Canada and Mexico put together sold approximately x million vehicles, amplifying average industry growth by x to x % over 2013 levels. Technology Outlook
•With the emergence of clean diesel technologies, diesel share in production grew marginally with increased production and sales from OEMs, such as GM, Nissan, and VW.
•Direct Injection and boosting continued to rise in gasoline engines. Penetration of GDI technology was more than x % and boosting close to x % in 2014.
•The proportion of high-speed transmissions also increased by 1 to x %, with new introductions from GM, FIAT Chrysler, and BMW.
•The region sold close to x units of EVs in 2014; with some key launches like Audi A3 e-tron and BMW i8. Four American states managed 1% EV penetration in their sales.

Europe
Sales Outlook
•European car sales saw growth of more than x % over 2013 levels. UK led the growth by x %. Major markets like Germany and Italy grew by about x %. France witnessed marginal growth due to a tough economic situation. Technology Outlook
•France saw a major decline of about x % in share of diesel vehicles registered, reaching x %. UK also witnessed around x % decline in diesel share, following increasing penalization of diesel engines.
•Penalization of diesel also led to advancement of gasoline technologies. GDI engines grew by x to x % over the previous year.
•High-speed transmissions grew by about x %, as OEMs increased their focus on this aspect.
•Focus on EVs increased with new launches, e.g., like Audi A3 e-tron. Close to 80,000 units were sold, largely in markets like Norway, UK, France, and Germany.

Brazil—LATAM
Sales Outlook
•Against the backdrop of a weak economy and poor exports, vehicle sales totaled about x million, declining by x % over 2013 levels. Technology Outlook
• % of cars sold had displacement below 1L, over x % were between 1 and 2L, while displacement constituted x % in engines above 2.0L.
•Diesel and gasoline cars had market shares of x to x % each, while flex fuel cars remained the majority with x % penetration.
•Electric vehicle sales reached close to 900 units. In 2013, the figure was less than x units.

India
Sales Outlook: Combined sales of passenger cars, utility vehicles and vans is expected to reach about x million units as the financial year closes in India. Gasoline will have powered about x to x % of vehicles, while diesel, about x to x %. Technology Outlook
•DVW POLO TSI and VENTO TSI.
•These also feature dual scroll turbocharger for gasoline engines, capable of giving x % higher output than the naturally aspirated, port injected counterparts. TAT also introduced gasoline turbocharging in its ‘ZEST’, with a Revotron engine.
•Engine downsizing also gained focus, with FORD’s 1L Ecoboost, VW’s 1.5L engines, and Hyundai’s 1.1L 3 cylinder CRDi engines gaining popularity.
•Popular models such as VW POLO, FORD Ecosport and Fiesta also introduced irected, injected gasoline engines came fitted in B/C segments cars like, DCT versions, targeting city drivers primarily.

Turkey
Sales Outlook
Unit shipment declined in 2014 by x % from 2013 levels. Passenger car sales dropped by x %
Technology Outlook
Sales of vehicles with all engine displacement categories have dampened. The biggest decline was in sales of vehicles with engine displacements between 1.6L and 2.0L (or x %). Above 2L category shrank the least (about x % from 2013 levels).

China
Sales Outlook
Sales of passenger cars reached nearly x to x million units in 2014 clocking x % growth over 2013 levels. Chinese car manufacturers increased their sales by x % over 2013 levels.
Technology Outlook: The share of direct injected engines was about x to x % among gasoline vehicles. About x to x % of gasoline engines were boosted.
The production of 8-speed transmissions got a boost as result of increased adoption from European OEMs; Dual clutch transmissions continued on their growth track with growth rate over x %, from 2013 levels.
China sold close to 74,800 New Energy Vehicles(NEV); more than three times the sales in 2013.

Japan
Sales Outlook: Light vehicle sales went up by about x % in 2014 over previous year.
Passenger cars’ unit registration figure stood close to x million, while overall sales was x million, combining trucks and buses.
Technology Outlook: Fuel car sales clocked about 2014 units in 2014. Japan sold more than x EVs in 2014, more than x % of which were battery electrics.

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