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Global Economic Outlook 2015—BRICS : A Short-term Pulse of Growth Opportunities

  • March 2015
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 50 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Economic Growth Trends in 2015

India appears to be on a steady growth path as a result of macroeconomic reforms pursued by the new government, increasing foreign investments, booming business confidence, and easing inflation. India is expected to experience the highest growth in 2015 amongst the BRICS countries.
Russia’s economic growth has been severely hurt as a result of sanctions imposed by the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) and low oil prices. The country is expected to enter recession in 2015.
China is expected to see a growth slowdown as a result of structural reforms and a sustained housing crisis. South Africa and Brazil are not expected to grow by more than x % in 2015.

BRICS Economic Summary

Brazil
Brazil will try to reign in its high inflation in 2015, possibly at the cost of growth. High public debt and currency devaluation pose risks to the economy.

South Africa
The country’s growth has been hampered by a series of labor strikes and blackouts and only a meager growth of x % is expected in 2015. The government is expected to work to control the country’s public debt burden. Unemployment is expected to remain high in 2015.

India
Spurred by reform initiatives, there has been a rise in foreign investments and business confidence since the May 2014 elections. The country’s growth is expected to accelerate and touch % in 2015.

China
China’s structural transformation in conjunction with a weak housing market are expected to slow growth down to x % in 2015. The banking sector may also have to deal with a rise in non-performing loans.

Russia
Western sanctions and low crude oil prices are expected to continue to exert pressures on Russia in 2015, and the country could possible enter recession in 2015. Capital flight is expected to intensify in 2015. Major Russian companies and banks will have to refinance their debts without access to the US and EU capital markets.

Industry Outlook in 2015

•Russia’s key oil and gas sector is likely to suffer on account of falling crude oil prices and western sanctions, which bar Russia from accessing foreign technology and loans and also prevent Russia from drilling in the Arctic Shelf.
•Automotive sales in Brazil, China, and Russia declined in 2014. The 2015 sales outlook for these countries appears to be dim owing to weak domestic demand.
•India’s ‘Make in India’ campaign launched in September 2014 will seek to attract more FDI into the manufacturing sector and establish the country as a manufacturing hub.

Economic Indicators
•GDP: It is the value of goods and services produced within a country in a year.
•GDP Growth: GDP growth or the real GDP growth is the percentage change in the value added to the GDP at constant prices in the national currency value.
•Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): It is the purchase of foreign assets or enterprise in a foreign country and is measured as the flow of funds into the country and the net decrease of assets.
•Index of Industrial Production (IIP): It is a measure of change in the volume of production of a fixed set of products at a constant price for all producer units and separate subdivisions thereof.
•Trade: It is the overall export and import value of all commodities

Industry Indicators
•Value Added or Manufacturing Output: It is the output value of industries.
•Oil Production: It refers to the production volume of crude oil and is measured in thousand barrels a day.
•Gas Production: It refers to the production of natural gas and is measured in billion cubic feet.
•IIP: It denotes the index of industrial production.
•IIP Growth: It refers to the growth rate of IIP.
•Trade: It refers to the overall export and import value by sector.

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