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  5. > 2015 Global Outlook of the Medium-Heavy-duty Truck Industry : Global Sales to Increase by 90 Thousand Units amid Fuel Price Volatility

2014 Key Highlights

The global economy grew by x %, leading to MD-HD truck sales of x million units.
North America and Next 11 Experienced Growth while BRIC and Europe did not
The strong North American and Next x markets helped the global MD-HD truck market counter the slowdown experienced in the BRIC and European markets. As a result, global sales grew by x thousand units over 2013.

Value Trucks have Become the Focus
OEMs, such as Daimler AG, AB Volvo, and Iveco, from the TRIAD markets, and Tata Motors, Foton Motor Inc, FAW Group Corporation, and CNHTC, have brought the focus on value trucks at a time when demand for such trucks, especially in developing markets, is beginning to unfold. This segment will be the battle ground for global market share leadership.

Consolidation at the Top
Daimler continues to dominate the global market through individual and partnership-based successes. Strong emphasis on TCO and a foray into the value truck segment, along with a focus on advanced technologies, have paid rich dividends. Volvo’s partnership with DFM materialized in early 2015. Moreover, its focus on and leverage of soft technologies is helping it challenge Daimler on all fronts.

Natural Gas Demand Remained Strong while Hybrid-Electric Technologies Experienced Continued Activity
Natural gas truck demand has remained strong, especially in China and North America. The shale gas revolution is paving the way for global natural gas price reductions. OEMs will continue to develop hybrid powertrain systems and make supply chain investments for 2022 and beyond. Eaton has shifted focus to China while Cummins Inc., has benefited from the x L natural gas engine in its portfolio.

Autonomous Trucks and Big Data are Major Focal Points for the Industry
Daimler’s autonomous truck prototype and, Volvo, PACCAR Inc, and Japanese OEMs’ activities in autonomous truck technologies, have made autonomous truck technologies a priority for the OEM community. Platooning technology and online/mobile freight aggregation companies have also gained significant attention.

2015 Top 6 Predictions

As sales increases by x thousand units in 2015, the industry will increasingly focus on and embrace connectivity technologies to deliver positive changes to trucking efficiencies

Global Sales to Hit x Million as the Economy Grows in the Range of x - x %
Improvements in the North American, Indian, and Next 11 markets, along with marginal growth in the Chinese market, will result in a x - x % growth in MD-HD truck sales.

Engine Platforms are Gaining Significance while Diesel has Dropped to x % of the Total Powertrain Fuel Mix
Cummins’ global MD engine platform and other global platforms of OEMs and powertrain manufacturers will be launched in 2015; CNG/LNG engines will account for x % of all new truck engines.

Global Fuel Price Volatility will Bring Mixed Results, Adversely Impacting Green Technologies
Oil price volatility will expedite truck replacement cycles in many markets, such as North America and India, but will stifle growth in markets like Russia and Latin America. It will also decelerate growth in natural gas demand in the short term, while the long-term outlook for natural gas will remain strong.

Telematics Adoption will Experience Strong Tailwinds Driven by the MRM Value Proposition
Market pull, driven by freight shippers demanding more supply chain visibility and fleets in every regional market demanding vehicle and driver management applications, will continue stoking telematics demand. The global MD-HD truck installed base will reach x million in 2015. Regulation compliance, safety, and prognostics will emerge as the key drivers for telematics demand.

Big Data Analytics, Online/Mobile Freight Aggregation, Autonomous Driving, and HWW will Gain OEM and Tier-1 Mindshare
The aggregation of these technologies and the momentum each will receive in 2015 will form the foundation for future connectivity, digitization, fuel and freight efficiency, and driver HWW in the trucks that will be introduced in the market in 2020 and beyond. Uber for Trucks will proliferate in 2015.

Growth in the City Trucks Segment is Driving CV OEMs to Expand Their Freight Mobility Portfolios
The sub-3.5T GVWR market will attract MD-HD truck OEMs as it is experiencing rapid growth, driven by urbanization, online shopping, and hub-and-spoke logistics. OEMs, especially those with a passenger car market presence, will be attracted to this market because of its volume and margin potential.

2014 CV Market Key Performers

The recovery in demand in North America and China strengthened MD-HD truck sales in 2014; the economic slowdown, along with the political instability, affected truck sales in Europe, Brazil, and Russia

The Chinese market posted marginal growth as the focus is on improving fleet and transport efficiency. Economic recovery remained lackluster during 2014, thereby affecting truck sales.
The pre-purchase of trucks in 2013, due to the implementation of the Euro VI, affected truck sales in the first half of 2014. Recovery during the later quarters of the year remained subdued due to weakened economic activity.
The Indian CV market posted marginal gains in the latter half of 2014. The HD segment recorded YoY growth, with improved freight demand as the economic and the investment climate in the country recovered during the later quarters of 2014.
Strong economic recovery and a vibrant manufacturing climate aided truck sales in the North American market. The HD segment recorded a x % YoY growth, with large order intakes in Q4 of 2014.
Interest rate revision in Brazil’s subsidy program influenced truck sales as the cost of finance for fleets shot up. Freight demand remained weak due to subdued economic activity in the region, resulting in market contraction.
A weak economy, burdened by low oil prices, considerably affected public infrastructure spending in Russia. As a result, freight demand weakened, reducing truck sales.

Table Of Contents

2015 Global Outlook of the Medium-Heavy-duty Truck Industry : Global Sales to Increase by 90 Thousand Units amid Fuel Price Volatility
Executive Summary 4
Definitions and Segmentation 8
Freight and Economic Outlook 10
Global Market Forecast 14
Regional Market Trends and Forecasts 20
Special Focus—ASEAN Market 25
Overview of the Value Truck Market 30
Overview of the Global City Truck Market 35
Global MD-HD Powertrain Snapshot 48
Overview of Advanced Technologies 54
Autonomous Trucks 65
Emerging Revenue Opportunities for CV Stakeholders—Big Data in CV 75
Evolving Dealership Revenue Strategies 83
CV Leasing and Finance 88
Western European and North American Used HD Truck Market 92
Fleet TCO Analysis—North America and Europe 95
2015 MD-HD Truck Market—Conclusions and Outlook 98
Appendix 101
2015 CV Research Titles 103
The Frost and Sullivan Story 107

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