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Country Economic Forecasts > Macau China

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Macau's GDP fell by about 25% on the year in H1 2015, after double-digit growth from 2010 to H1 2014, with gaming revenues hit by a number of constraints on visitors from China; tourist spending per capita fell by almost 20% in H1 2015. We are cautiously optimistic that, after an expected 20% GDP fall this year, there will be a modest recovery in 2016 driven by investment and services and the Mainland rebalancing towards more reliance on consumption.

But downside risks are high. If China slows more than we expect, Macau would be severely hit, and the drop in gaming has highlighted the need for diversification. Hengqin Island, part of Guangdong state but connected to Macau by a bridge, has been designated as a special economic zone and the Mainland authorities are keen to develop non-gaming tourism there, which could have beneficial effects for Macau.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Macau China

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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