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Implications of Natural Gas Pooling on Natural Gas Infrastructure & Market in India

  • April 2015
  • -
  • Infra Insights
  • -
  • 98 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Research Case:

Domestic natural gas sector continue to disturb market sentiments
• Domestic gas pricing still partially announced
• Supply disruptions to gas based power sector to enter its 2nd year. Still no hopes of a turn-around in domestic gas supply in the foreseeable future
• NELP fields unlikely to contribute incrementally for the next two years
• Fresh NELP rounds look a distant dream
• Global downfall in crude prices likely to create a downward impact on the domestic gas prices that have been linked to global LNG indices

What seems to be changing in the gas sector in India?

• Drop in spot LNG prices in India, recently seen at under USD 10/MMBtu
• Oil prices may contain the LNG prices, specially the spot and short term LNG prices
• Attractive Spot-LNG prices to off-set existing term LNG prices. However, by mid 2017 term prices may also get lighter
• Imported LNG risk diversification through natural LNG portfolio expansion
• GAIL and other LNG importers in India likely to respond on these attractive prices by way of increasing off-take
• Domestic gas price linked to global LNG indices likely to reduce instead of increase the gas price in the next revision
• Critical gas consuming segments, especially the installed gas based power sector, are expected to raise their voices towards supply of gas and off-take of power by the discoms
• Incumbent government is pro-growth and has been voicing its vision to solve the power crisis and also increase gas pipeline network in the country
Pooling of natural gas is being discussed as the natural way-forward in the present industry context. But why?
• Any incremental domestic gas in the next 4 years to go to power sector. Clear objective to increase the PLF of gas based power plants
• Trimming of Re-gasification charges and gas pipeline tariff & marketing margin may be seen which may bring volumes
• Much more: Customs duty wavier, Scrapping of CST & VAT, Swapping of Gas, etc

Overall Objective

The report is tailor-made to facilitate decision making. The key objectives of the report are:
• To evaluate the impact of price pooling on key gas consuming sectors and their downstream market
• To identify the likely drivers & barriers for pooling of gas in India
• To identify the key beneficiaries of the pooling of gas price and how these beneficiaries will be positively impacted ?
• To identify the growth prospects for the overall Gas Sector/Natural Gas Value-Chain in India based on the gas pooling
• To discover the most optimum gas pool quantum and price range
• To sensitize the stakeholder's on the likely future business prospects emanating from Indian natural gas market, especially in the context of LNG penetration in India.
The research report will also give an insight on the mechanism and implementation of pooling of gas, as well as, its impact on the domestic gas sector.

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