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Executive Summary—Economic Growth Trends in Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015
Growth prospects of the emerging Asian countries will be significantly affected by the economic slowdown in leading Asian economies such as China and Japan. The drop in oil prices is likely to continue throughout 2015. Emerging APAC countries that are net importers of oil, can save more on their energy bills and channelize that on goods and services, which is likely to drive economic growth. A x % decline in average oil prices in 2015 over 2014, is likely to fuel gross domestic product growth by x % in emerging APAC countries. The possibility of geopolitical issues in Asia over the South China Sea dispute still remain a cause of concern and could pose a threat to growth prospects of some countries in 2015.
Regional Highlights, 2015
While an interest rate spike has kept domestic demand low, a ban on exports of nickel ore and bauxite has hurt the trade balance in 2014. The Indonesian economic growth is likely to hover around x % in 2015.
Although the Malaysian economy experienced a slowdown in Q3 2014, mainly due to slow export growth and low investments, the outlook for 2015 remains moderate at x %, with a gradual improvement in the country’s fiscal situation and robust growth in the US market.
The Thai economy recorded a subdued economic growth rate of x % in 2014 after a mild recession in Q1. The outlook for 2015 is likely to improve as political unrest subsides and export markets rebound.
The Vietnamese economy rebounded quickly after a mild slowdown in the beginning of 2014. A construction sector uptick along with growth in exports due to a devalued Dong and lower oil prices are expected to drive growth throughout 2015.
Industry Outlook, 2015
•Strong growth prospects exist in the food and beverages industry in the emerging APAC region.
•A decline in oil prices is expected to increase the demand for automobiles. Moreover, an increase in disposable income, resulting from savings on energy bills, is likely to boost the demand for consumer durables.
•Government focus on improving infrastructure and growth-oriented, trade-friendly, open economic policies are likely to improve trade and boost investor confidence, thereby, bolstering the investment flow into the region.
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