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Executive Impact Analysis of Shale Gas on Global MD-HD Truck Market : Shale Gas to Boost Global NG Truck Sales by 46 Percent by 2022

  • April 2015
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 51 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Key Takeaways

Forty-six percent of global new NG truck sales to be attributed to shale gas proliferation in 2022

•New natural gas (NG) truck sales within medium-heavy duty (MD-HD) segments is expected to surpass x units annually by 2022.
•Shale gas proliferation is expected to double global MD-HD natural gas truck sales by 2022.

NG powertrain adoption can reduce fleet fuel cost by x % in 2022
•By 2022, about x % of fleet trucks in NA and about x % of fleet trucks in EU are expected to run on NG. This adoption is expected to translate to x % and x % reduction in total operation cost in NA and EU respectively. With x % NG adoption in fleets, however, cost saving can be as high as x % in these regions.

Shale exploration and realigning geo-political scenario to double LNG trade by 2022
•Shale gas proliferation in non-OECD regions such as NA, China, and Australia, regional NG price disparity, and realigning geo-politics surrounding global gas trade have emerged as the top drivers for global LNG trade explosion. By 2022, LNG trade is expected to double from 2014 levels to reach over x % of global gas trade.

Increased global adoption of spot pricing and sustenance of Diesel-NG price differential to continue until 2022
•Despite current oil prices, oil-to-NG price ratio is expected to remain steady during the forecast period because of disassociation of NG-Crude oil price link brought about by shale gas revolution. Additionally, liberalization of NG pricing in key markets will sustain retail fuel diesel-NG price differential until 2022.

Rising sales of NG trucks to take NG penetration to x % of total powertrain mix
•Among alternate power trains, NG powertrain is the fastest growing segment during 2014–2022. Share of NG power train is expected to be x % of global MD-HD truck sales by 2022.

Mega Trends Driving Global Gas Market

NG is expected to account for over x % of global energy demand across various industries by 2030.

Climate Change
x % lesser carbon content than coal makes NG a cleaner fuel.

LNG Trade
By 2022, global LNG trade to double to reach x % of all gas trade.

Shale Revolution
By 2022, of the total gas production, x % will be from shale plays.

What does this mean for CV industry?

•The heavy-duty CV segment to experience rising NG adoption
•The benefits of cost benefits, rising fuel efficiencies, and lower emissions to drive NG adoption
•Spot pricing of gas to benefit diesel-NG price differential, thereby increasing adoption of NG among fleets
•Increased NG production expected to translate to higher availability of NG in fuel stations
•More fleets to experiment with NG to compare efficiency across a mixed-vehicle fleet – critical to determine ROI on moving from diesel to NG

Shale Proliferation Impact on OEMs and Suppliers

With steady rise in market share for NG powertrains, suppliers of NG components are expected to benefit from economies-of-scale.

Natural gas (NG) powertrain is forecasted to be the fastest growing alternate powertrain, with a CAGR of x % globally. OEMs are expected to gain market share in MD-HD NG trucks powertrain product portfolio.
•NA and China are the most crucial NG powertrain markets with x % and x % NGV penetration respectively by 2022 in the MD-HD trucks market. By 2022, OEMs are expected to increase the number of MD-HD NG truck models in NA, China, and EU by x – % over 2014 model lineup.
•Long-haul fleet segment is poised to rapidly adopt NGVs with legislative support favoring NG adoption such as the US National Natural Gas Truck Competitiveness Act and the EU Blue Corridor. OEMs are expected to focus NG product and marketing strategy on this segment.
•OEMs are expected to leverage on total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage that NGVs offer to long-haul fleets in marketing campaigns directed at fleet owners.
•Global MD-HD NG truck penetration is expected to reach x %. NGV sub-system manufacturers are expected to benefit from economies-of-scale.
•NG engine manufacturers and sub-system manufacturers in the MD-HD segment will have substantial bargaining power as OEMs lack vertical integration and experience with NGVs.
•Sub-system manufacturers offering off-the-shelf proprietary products ought to focus on innovation to sustain product proprietorship, and thus acquire bargaining power with OEMs.

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