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Large-scale deployment of public small cells is always promised tomorrow, never today. This report explains this persistent procrastination, and forecasts when and where they will be deployed, and the value of investment required.

Table Of Contents

The Public small cells worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015-2020
Table of contents
About this report
Public small cells: growth tomorrow, never growth today
Recommendations
Recommendations
Capacity-driven deployments
Our forecast assesses the deployment of public small cells where they are used to deliver additional capacity
Wireless data traffic is dominated by at-home Wi-Fi
Mobile traffic continues to grow at a fast pace, but LTE is starting to have an impact on Wi-Fi and may change the way in which networks are built
Data traffic is concentrated in dense urban areas, but we doubt whether it will become much more concentrated in developed economies
Bandwidth density will rise to 12.6Gbps per km2 in the busiest areas of the busiest cities by 2020
Most capacity-driven small-cell deployments will consist largely, but not exclusively, of metrocells
The deployment of LTE-A postpones demand for public small cells
The competitive structure of the mobile market will create short-term inefficiencies
Asia-Pacific and North America will together account for 78% of the installed base of public small cells by 2020
About 6% of macrocells worldwide will have some level of public small-cell underlay by 2020
The number of public small cells deployed worldwide will rise to 4.9 million by 2020 if data traffic increases at a 60% CAGR
Cumulative capex on small-cell equipment and software will be USD15.6 billion by 2020
Data traffic is moving indoors and small cells will increasingly be integrated with Wi-Fi to meet that need
Further opportunities
The current opportunities are for specific use cases, but there are long-term opportunities in mass-market densification and 5G
Small cells for public-space not-spots
Three factors could trigger hyper-densification
Hyper-densification: at what cost?
The growth of out-of-home data usage is subject to practical demand-side limitations
Back to outside-in: Addressing the home broadband market from highly distributed base stations
5G will be the real driver of small-cell deployment
Methodology
Methodology for forecast
About the author and Analysys Mason

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